Expected EPS and EPS Growth as Determinantsof Value

This paper develops a parsimonious model relating a firm’s price per share to, (i), next year expected earnings per share (or 12 months forward eps), (ii), short-term growth (FY-2 versus FY- l) in eps, (iii), long-term (asymptotic) growth in eps, and, (iv), cost-of-equity capital. The model assumes that the present value of dividends per share (dps) determines price, but it does not restrict how the dps-sequence is expected to evolve. All of these aspects of the model contrast sharply with the standard (Gordon/Williams) text-book approach, which equates the growth rates of expected eps and dps and fixes the growth rate and the payout rate. Though the constant growth model arises as a peculiar special case, the analysis in this paper rests on more general principles, including dividend policy irrelevancy. A second key result inverts the valuation formula to show how one expresses cost-of-capital as a function of the forward eps to price ratio and the two measures of growth in expected eps. This expression generalizes the text-book equation in which cost-of-capital equals the dps-yield plus the growth in expected eps.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Innovation and integration in the agri-food industry

We deal with the link between innovation and market structure using the empirical example of the Danish agri-food industry. Vertical integration may resolve hold-up problems and here we test for the importance of vertical integration and networks on innovation. We further examine the effects of network relationships on innovation behaviour. We use data from an extensive survey of 444 Danish firms over two years, 2000 and 2005 to estimate a bootstrapped zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The first and most significant result is that organization matters. Further we find that vertical integration as well as contractual arrangements are significant determinants for firms’ innovation behaviour. The direction of integration is important as well. Also, economies of size seem to play an important role. Similarly, the export orientation of the firm is a significant determinant of innovation whereas the sector the firm is operating in is not significant for its innovation behaviour.     

Competing macro-hypotheses in the United States: A Kalman filtering approach

The empirical validity of alternative views about the short-run determinants of real output growth in the United States is investigated. A nested framework is used to test the macro rational expectations (MRE) hypothesis directly against two competing hypotheses - the neo-Keynesian view that anticipated and unanticpated monetary policy both matter,and Friedman's (1977) proposition that increased inflation uncertainty reduces real output at least temporarily. The unobservable explanatory variables are obtained from time-varying-parameter models of inflation and money growth, which generate forecast errors and their conditional variances consistent with rational expectations under a continuously chaning policy regime. The empirical results strongly support Friedman's view. The MRE hypothesis must be rejected since both anticipated and unanticipated monetary changes matter. The results prove robust across different model specifications and estimation techniques.     

The Role of Institutional Uncertainty for Social Sustainability of Companies and Supply Chains

Global sourcing largely occurs from so-called emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). In these contexts, substantial leverage effects for sustainability in supply chains (SCs) can be expected by reducing adverse impacts on society and minimising related risks. For this ethical end, an adequate understanding of the respective sourcing contexts is fundamental. This case study of South Africa’s (SA) mining sector uses institutional theory and the notion of institutional uncertainty to empirically analyse the challenges associated with establishing social sustainability. The case study research is informed by 39 semi-structured interviews with top management representatives and various state and non-state decision makers in SA. Our findings suggest that (social) sustainability in the institutional field is mainly shaped by the Social and Labour Plan institution, induced by state actors and mining companies’ practices. However, four weakening factors were identified that adversely affect this regulative institution, drive institutional uncertainty and allow for mining companies’ gradual decoupling. Contrastingly, complementing pressures of non-state actors limit institutional uncertainty and push toward mainstreaming the stipulations of the institution. This study contributes to the business ethics literature by providing an in-depth exploration of institutional uncertainty’s drivers and barriers within an upstream SC setting and shedding light on multiple actors’ interplay and relevance in sector-wide sustainability. The findings are condensed into three main propositions as well as an analytical framework as a basis for follow-up research. This case study helps practitioners understand and manage complexity that results from actor plurality and institutional uncertainty in EMDEs.

     

What drives rural out-migration? Insights from Kosovo

Drawing on household, network and relative deprivation models of migration, this paper empirically tests the probability to migrate utilising data for agricultural households in Kosovo (circa 13,500 observations). We identify the determinants of the propensity to migrate and length of migration in the previous year, considering gender-related differences. The results reveal the significance of household/personal characteristics, farm characteristics and network effects on the propensity to migrate and length of migration in the previous year. However, we find no significant effect of relative deprivation on the propensity to migrate and length of migration. While education has a strong, positive effect on migration by women, this is not the case for men. Unprofitability and a lack of inputs, manpower and equipment, causing farmland to be left uncultivated, also stimulate out-migration.     

The Role of Age and Gender in Educational Expansion: The South Asian Experience in the Global Context

I calculate education Gini coefficients and decompose the overall degree of educational inequality into age, sex, and within‐group components for 171 countries from 1970 to 2010. Doing so enables me to analyze the distributional outcomes of educational expansion. I use South Asia as a case study, as the education distribution in the region is among the most unequal in the world. Generally, educational inequality is decreasing over the observed sample period around the globe. Yet, as improvements are initiated by enhancing the educational opportunities of the young, the gap between cohorts widens in transition phases but vanishes thereafter. Gaps between the sexes are reduced substantially, but widen if either males or females are the first to enter higher education levels. Also, gaps within population subgroups follow a similar trajectory. Instead of a Kuznets‐curve relation, I thus find evidence for educational inequality to evolve in waves as education expands.