Assessing the potential impact of Microfinance with agent-based modeling

Recent empirical results have cast doubt on the value of Microfinance as a tool for reducing poverty. But, the difficulty lies in evaluating the impact of Microfinance in a world where the Microfinance institutions, their borrowers, and government policies are constantly changing. There is a need for a comprehensive and transparent framework to develop the theoretical grounds for believing in (or against) the efficacy of Microfinance, which can at the same time be used as a testing ground for policymakers. This paper presents a first attempt to develop an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework for pre-policy-implementation testing of the effects of Microfinance. Under the ABM paradigm, a set of behaviors for individual agents in the economy is used to construct a simulation whereby random interaction allows agents to change their state over time. Simulation of the model in different scenarios supported all our intuitions about Microfinance; in particular, there was positive impact of Microfinance on the wealth level of the poor. It was found that increase of available funds, easy access for producers and lower interest rates increase the effectiveness of Microfinance.     

Differentials at firm level productive capacity realization in Bangladesh food manufacturing: an empirical analysis

This article empirically estimates the firm-specific productive capacity realization (PCR) indices using the stochastic frontier production function and analyses a number of variables explaining realization rates across firms and over time. Following Battese and Coelli (1995 Battese, GE and Coelli, TJ. 1995. A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics, 20: 325–32. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) the stochastic frontier production function is used to estimate capacity output and thereby PCR. Using the Firm level panel data from Bangladesh food manufacturing, the results show that capacity realization rates widely vary across firms and over time. The average rate of realization is about 65% implying that most of the firms are producing away from their full production capacity. This article also identifies several firm-specific and policy-related variables explaining capacity realization. The results show that firm size (SZE) and outward orientation (OPN) have positive while capital intensity (CNSTY), market structure (MSTRE) and effective rate of assistance (ERA) have negative impact on realization rates. Strikingly, both policy-related variables are statistically insignificant. Sensitivity analysis using the ‘extreme bound analysis’ also confirms the fragility (insignificance) of these two variables. Excessive support to firms and piecemeal liberalization reform may be attributed to these results. Thus, further reform of the domestic and trade policies are suggested to ensure competition and competitiveness of the manufacturing sector and of the country.     

CO-MOVEMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

We examine the co-movements of equity returns in four major international markets by characterizing the time-varying cross-country covariances and correlations. Using a generalized positive definite multivariate GARCH model, we find that the Japanese and U.S. stock markets have significant transitory covariance, but zero permanent covariance. The other pairs of markets examined display significant permanent and transitory covariance. We also find that, while conditional correlations between returns are generally small, they change considerably over time. An event analysis suggests that basing diversification strategies on these conditional correlations is potentially beneficial.     

INCENTIVES FOR COMPETITIVE RESPONSES IN REPLICATED ECONOMIES: A GENERALIZATION

A simple proof is presented of a theorem of Roberts and Postlewaite on truthful revelation of preferences for replicated economies. The proof provides some generalizations of the earlier result using the strict definition of feasibility. First, to economies with an infinity of agents but with a finite number of types; secondly, to economies with a countable number of commodities.     

Role of communication technologies in broadacre agriculture in Australia: an empirical analysis using panel data

This paper examines the role of communication technologies (CTs) in Australian broadacre agricultural production using data over the period of 1990–2013. Allowing for cross‐sectional independence in the data, the pooled mean group and augmented mean group techniques are applied to estimate dynamic relationships among variables. The empirical results demonstrate that CTs affect agricultural output positively in the long run. The estimated elasticity is 0.237. This result suggests that government policies that lift investment in telecommunication facilities are shown to contribute to an increase of output in Australia's broadacre agriculture in the long run.     

A predictive system integrating intrinsic mode functions,artificial neural networks,and genetic algorithms for forecasting S&P500 intra‐day data

There is an abundant literature on the design of intelligent systems to forecast stock market indices. In general, the existing stock market price forecasting approaches can achieve good results. The goal of our study is to develop an effective intelligent predictive system to improve the forecasting accuracy. Therefore, our proposed predictive system integrates adaptive filtering, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and evolutionary optimization. Specifically, it is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a useful adaptive signal‐processing technique, and ANNs, which are powerful adaptive intelligent systems suitable for noisy data learning and prediction, such as stock market intra‐day data. Our system hybridizes intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) obtained from EMD and ANNs optimized by genetic algorithms (GAs) for the analysis and forecasting of S&P500 intra‐day price data. For comparison purposes, the performance of the EMD‐GA‐ANN presented is compared with that of a GA‐ANN trained with a wavelet transform's (WT's) resulting approximation and details coefficients, and a GA‐general regression neural network (GRNN) trained with price historical data. The mean absolute deviation, mean absolute error, and root‐mean‐squared errors show evidence of the superiority of EMD‐GA‐ANN over WT‐GA‐ANN and GA‐GRNN. In addition, it outperformed existing predictive systems tested on the same data set. Furthermore, our hybrid predictive system is relatively easy to implement and not highly time‐consuming to run. Furthermore, it was found that the Daubechies wavelet showed quite a higher prediction accuracy than the Haar wavelet. Moreover, prediction errors decrease with the level of decomposition.     

Do retail gasoline prices rise more readily than they fall?: A threshold cointegration approach

This paper revisits the controversy over whether retail gasoline prices respond to increases in upstream prices more rapidly than decreases. Using threshold and momentum models of cointegration and daily data at different stages in the distribution chain, we find that transmission between upstream and downstream prices is mostly asymmetric in the momentum model: increases in upstream prices are passed on to downstream prices more quickly than decreases. We distinguish between small and large shocks and show that the asymmetry is more pronounced for small shocks, which may be due to consumer search costs.     

The two sides of CEO option grants at the IPO

This paper examines the impact of CEO IPO option grants on IPO underpricing. Contrary to Lowry and Murphy (2007) who do not find a relationship between the two, this paper finds such a relationship when board independence, the power of the CEO and venture capitalists (VCs) are taken into account. The results are threefold. First, powerful CEOs are able to reap substantial gains from IPO options, to the detriment of the shareholders. Second, young, powerful VCs use IPO option grants to bribe the CEO to agree to an early IPO which will leave more of the existing shareholders' money on the table. Finally, IPO options only work as a value-enhancing incentive in the presence of strong boards.