Fixed and random effects models: making an informed choice

This paper assesses the options available to researchers analysing multilevel (including longitudinal) data, with the aim of supporting good methodological decision-making. Given the confusion in the literature about the key properties of fixed and random effects (FE and RE) models, we present these models’ capabilities and limitations. We also discuss the within-between RE model, sometimes misleadingly labelled a ‘hybrid’ model, showing that it is the most general of the three, with all the strengths of the other two. As such, and because it allows for important extensions—notably random slopes—we argue it should be used (as a starting point at least) in all multilevel analyses. We develop the argument through simulations, evaluating how these models cope with some likely mis-specifications. These simulations reveal that (1) failing to include random slopes can generate anti-conservative standard errors, and (2) assuming random intercepts are Normally distributed, when they are not, introduces only modest biases. These results strengthen the case for the use of, and need for, these models.

     

Linking IDC finance to structural transformation and inclusivity in post-apartheid South Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for structural transformation and inclusivity in South Africa is urgent, given poor economic growth, employment and equality outcomes. This article examines the role of South Africa’s main industrial finance institution – the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) – in providing finance for structural transformation and inclusive economic growth post-apartheid. We find that the IDC’s funding has been concentrated in capital-intensive upstream sectors of the economy, with limited concessional finance to facilitate meaningful entry of SMEs into high-value and labour-absorptive downstream sectors. The IDC’s funding model (in being a self-sustainable institution) is a significant constraining factor in this regard. Furthermore, the lack of a purposeful integrated industrial policy strategy which directs investments clearly means that IDC’s funding priorities are not clearly defined.     

Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area business cycles, in addition to the coincident information conveyed by standard macroeconomic variables. We also point out that dynamic factor models lead to more accurate replication of business cycles than static ones.     

WHAT EMPLOYERS LOOK FOR IN HIRING INSURANCE PROFESSIONALS

Abstract: The authors surveyed managers and personnel directors who make hiring decisions for risk management and insurance companies to determine what traits they seek in college students.     

The employee-organization relationship, organizational citizenship behaviors, and superior service quality

This study proposes a model of customer-contact service employee management that examines organizational citizenship behaviors as critical links between aspects of the employee-organization relationship (perceived organizational support, organizational identification) and customers’ perceptions of service quality. In addition, it investigates the role of job autonomy in providing the necessary behavioral discretion for employees to be able to perform citizenship behaviors. The hypothesized model was partially supported. Theoretical and managerial implications are explored.     

Neighborhood effects and trial on the internet: Evidence from online grocery retailing

For traditional retailers the customer pool is largely bounded in space, whereas an Internet retailer can obtain customers from a wide geographical area. We examine customer trials at Netgrocer.com, and drawing on studies in marketing and economics conjecture that exposure spatially to proximate others (through direct social interaction or observation), can influence decisions of those who have yet to try. Trials arise from utility-maximizing behavior and the model is estimated as a discrete time hazard. The data span: (1) 29,701 residential zip codes, (2) 45 months of transactions since inception, and (3) zip code contiguity relationships. The estimated neighborhood effect is significantly positive and economically meaningful.

Getting the Unemployed Back to Work: The Role of Targeted Wage Subsidies

This paper examines alternative approaches to wage subsidy programmes. It does this in the context of a recent active labour market reform for the young unemployed in Britain. This New Deal reform and the characteristics of the target group are examined in detail. We discuss theoretical considerations, the existing empirical evidence and propose two strategies for evaluation. The first suggests an ex-post trend adjusted difference in difference estimator. The second, relates to a model based ex-ante evaluation. We present the conditions for each to provide a reliable evaluation and fit some of the crucial parameters using data from the British Labour Force Survey. We stress that the success of this type of labour market programmes hinge on dynamic aspects of the youth labour market, in particular the pay-off to experience and training.