Social Capital: The World Bank's Fungible Friend

Book reviewed in this article:
Christian Grootaert and Thierry van Bastelaer (eds), The Role of Social Capital in Development: An Empirical Assessment     

Decentralization via Federal and Unitary Referenda

This paper studies a model where the power to set policy (a choice of project) may be assigned to central or regional government via either a federal or unitary referendum. The benefit of central provision is an economy of scale, while the cost is political inefficiency. The relationship between federal and unitary referenda is characterized in the asymptotic case as the number of regions becomes large, under the assumption that the median project benefit in any region is a random draw from a fixed distribution, G. Under some symmetry assumptions, the relationship depends only on the shape of G, not on how willingness to pay is distributed within regions. The relationship to Cremer and Palfrey's “principle of aggregation” is established. Asymptotic results on the efficiency of the two referenda are also proved.     

Towards A New Approach to Development Management1

Abstract: Since attaining political independence African countries have achieved significant improvements in a number of social welfare indicators. However, the record of socio-economic development in Africa is generally poor both in absolute terms and in comparison with other regions of the world. Various reasons have been given for Africa's poor development record. This paper suggests that approaches to development management so far adopted in Africa are inadequete, and it propose the conceptual elements for a new approach to development management. Résumé: Depuis leur accès à I'indépendance, un certain nombre d'indicateurs de bien-être social des pays africains se sont très nettement améliorés. Toutefois, les résultats concernant le développement socio-économique de l'Afrique est, en règle générale, médiocre en chiffres absolus et si on le compare avec d'autres régions du monde. Pour expliquer ces résultats, divers raisons ont été avancées. Ce document donne à penser que les approches adoptées jusqu'ici en Afrique, touchant la gestion du développement, sont inadaptées à la situation. L'auteur propose donc des éléments conceptuels pour une nouvelle approche de la gestion du développement     

Can you handle failure?

Handling failure and blame is key to managerial success. But roughly 70 % of Americans have a personality type that tends to react inappropriately when things go wrong. Some people are extrapunitive, always pointing a finger at someone else. Others are impunitive, denying there's a problem or that they played any role. And still others are intrapunitive, heaping too much blame on themselves and seeing disasters where none exist. Fortunately, there are ways to fix such flawed responses. The first step is to cultivate self-awareness; several personality tests can help you assess your interaction style. Next, deepen your political awareness to better understand what messages others are receiving. Once you've identified your bad habits, you can move toward more-adaptive responses. Dattner and Hogan describe several strategies that can benefit any of the personality types. You should make sure to listen and communicate well, reflect on the situation and the people involved, think carefully before acting, and look for lessons when mistakes do happen. Using detailed examples, the authors illustrate how people with the various personality types are apt to react to specific failures and explain what they might do differently. They also offer insights to help you recognize when your bosses, peers, or subordinates fit into one of the problematic categories and suggest ways to influence their behavior. The taxonomy and tactics they present will help you approach failure with an open mind and react in a balanced, constructive way.     

农民住房财产权抵押能否激发农村金融市场——基于银行贷款数据的实证分析

扩展抵押品范围是缓解农村金融困境的重要途径。在这一思路下,农民住房财产权抵押被寄予厚望,成为近年来农村政策改革的重要方向。本文使用2010—2016年1 024家农信社和农商行的数据,利用2015年12月国务院在天津市蓟州区等59个试点县(市、区)开展为期两年的农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点这一"准自然实验",对农民住房财产权抵押对涉农贷款供给的影响进行了检验。本文认为,现阶段农民住房面临着价值评估难、抵押物处置难的问题,抵押效果不佳。实证结果显示,农民住房财产权抵押没有显著增加涉农贷款供给,对农村金融的供给作用有限。本文在考虑了农民住房财产权抵押对其他担保方式的替代作用、农地经营权抵押和"三块地"改革的影响之后,上述结果依然稳健。本文的政策启示是,政府应着力做好农房抵押贷款改革的配套措施,推动宅基地制度改革,探索扩大农民住房财产权的受让范围,充分挖掘住房财产权的价值潜力,缓解抵押物处置难问题。     

经济欠发达地区基于物流的家电业多渠道营销模式

目前国内较为先进的家电经营模式主要由连锁经营及渠道代理两种。实施多渠道营销策略,建立物流核心竞争力,与大型连锁卖场实施差异化竞争,在竞争中得以生存发展,不失为经济欠发达地区家电业有效的经营模式。     

“Panelizing” Repeated Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a non-stationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of binary dependent variables in a time series of repeated cross-sectional (RCS) surveys. The model offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fishers method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch and West German women using ISSP (and other) data from 10 annual Dutch surveys conducted between 1987 and 1996 and 7 annual West German surveys conducted between 1988 and 1994. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are discussed.     

Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion

Recent studies of purchasing power parity (PPP) use panel tests that fail to take into account heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates. In contrast to several other severe restrictions of panel models and tests of PPP, the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. This paper analyzes the properties of homogeneous and heterogeneous panel unit root testing methodologies. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the panel approach that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and assume irregular shapes. Furthermore, homogeneous estimates of the mean reversion parameters exhibit potentially large biases. These properties can lead to misleading inferences on the validity of PPP. Our findings highlight the importance of allowing for heterogeneous estimation when testing for a unit root in panels of real exchange rates.