Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs

Most studies on equilibrium exchange rates focus on a limited number of G7 countries. But in a situation of world imbalances, emerging countries can no longer be excluded. The study of all equilibrium exchange rates is delicate. First, the trade model has to be balanced at the aggregate level. This paper suggests a method to achieve world balance both in volume and in value. Second, the N − 1 bilateral exchange rates cannot ensure that the N areas will reach their macroeconomic equilibrium simultaneously. This paper examines the existing solutions to solve the N − 1 problem and proposes an alternative which minimizes the distance to the current-account targets. Finally, in order to compare the relevance of the different methodologies, FEERs are calculated for 19 industrialized and developing countries. The results, which are taking into account the modification on output gap assessment induced by the 2008–2009 crisis, lead for the year 2010 to a USD closed to its equilibrium, a RMB undervalued by around 35% in real effective terms and to a EUR/USD parity equals to 1.47.     

Do real payments really matter? A re-examination of the compromise effect in hypothetical and binding choice settings

Numerous empirical studies have confirmed the existence of the compromise effect, which stipulates that options positioned between extreme alternatives in a product space are perceived as more attractive, hence becoming more likely to be chosen by consumers. However, literature on the topic frequently addresses the limited realism of prior work due to the artificial designs that were used. In a laboratory-based replication study, we examine the compromise effect across several categories in a more market-like scenario, in which experienced consumers make unforced decisions between real brands. In particular, we investigate whether the compromise effect varies in strength across the choice settings, depending on whether a hypothetical choice setting or a binding setting (in which subjects face buying obligations in terms of real payments for products) has been applied. While our results prove the robustness of the compromise effect for both choice frames, its strength differs significantly. Specifically, the compromise effect is evidently not as strong when real payments are introduced in binding choice settings. In addition, analysis of moderating factors confirms that compromise effects are stronger for categories where subjects are more in agreement about the relative quality of the options.     

Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households

Recent food price increases reportedly caused significant numbers of households to fall into poverty, particularly in the developing world. Most research into the welfare effects of these food price changes assumes constant demand or approximates second order substitution effects. Poverty forecasts with these assumptions may overestimate or underestimate the effect of food price increases in a nation where most households consume diverse food baskets. We account for full substitution by calculating a theoretically consistent food demand system, accounting for household responses to food price changes by decreasing some food purchases and increasing other food purchases. We use Mexican data to confirm the mitigation of adverse welfare effects from food price increases after accounting for country-specific dietary preferences in modeling demand. In comparison to previous literature, our welfare measures predict theoretically consistent numbers of Mexican households entering poverty due to recent food price changes.     

The relationship between banking market competition and risk-taking: Do size and capitalization matter?

This paper addresses the effects of bank competition on the risk-taking behaviors of banks in 10 Latin American countries between 2003 and 2008. We conduct our empirical approach in two steps. First, we estimate the Boone indicator, which is a measure of competition. We then regress this measure and other explanatory variables on the banking “stability inefficiency” derived simultaneously from the estimation of a stability stochastic frontier. Unlike previous findings, this paper concludes that competition affects risk-taking behavior in a non-linear way as both high and low competition levels enhance financial stability, while we find the opposite effect for average competition. In addition, bank size and capitalization are essential factors in explaining this relationship. On the one hand, the larger a bank is, the more it benefits from competition. On the other hand, a greater capital ratio is advantageous for banks that operate in collusive markets, while capitalization only enhances the stability of larger banks under high and average competition. These results are of extreme importance when considering bank regulations, especially in light of the recent turmoil in the global financial markets.     

Career concerns and peer effects in institutional tournaments: Evidence from ECB reserve currency portfolios

Using data on European Central Bank's (ECB's) reserve currency portfolios, we find that money managers react to relative rankings (i.e., own vs. peers’ performance) by adjusting portfolio active risk levels measured ex ante by actual deviations from their benchmark. This occurs in the absence of explicit incentives as no monetary reward is promised for winning this “tournament” among portfolio managers. We collect information on managers’ characteristics, including age, education, tenure, salary, and career path, and investigate the role played by implicit incentives. We provide evidence that both individual career concerns and institutional peer pressure contribute to the documented relationship between ranking and risk taking.