Effects of treatment beyond the treated: a general equilibrium impact evaluation of Lesotho's cash grants program

Africa's social cash transfer programs target the most resource‐constrained households, unlikely to expand supply in response to transfer‐induced demand. We propose a local economy‐wide impact evaluation model and use it to evaluate local spillovers from Lesotho's Child Grants Program. We report Monte‐Carlo confidence bounds around impact‐simulation results. We find significant spillovers to nonrecipient households and significant real income multipliers, although the latter are dampened if factor supply constraints generate excessive inflationary pressures. Our findings raise questions about how to measure the impacts of cash transfers. Evaluations focusing only on eligible households are likely to significantly understate program impacts.     

A critical stakeholder analysis of the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) Network

This article uses research interviews, field research, and critical stakeholder analysis to identify the relevant actors and institutions involved in the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) Network, a proposed multibillion dollar energy project in Southeast Asia. Based on more than 100 interviews at government institutions, multilateral development banks, universities, consulting firms, energy companies, and nongovernmental organizations, along with field research in Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the article traces the interests, resources, and agendas involved with TAGP stakeholders. The article finds points of conflict between stakeholders as well as motivations for convergence and cooperation. The article provides insight into whether private interests will trump the public good potential of the TAGP, and also critically questions the efficacy of multilateral coordination on energy issues within Southeast Asia.