Not just for business: some evidence on leisure motivations of conference attendees

Given the tough competition in the conference market, it is crucial to evaluate conferences not only from the point of view of professional utility and networking opportunities available for delegates but also to take into account leisure-related factors influencing attendees' decision making process, a field which undeservedly lacks scientific attention. This letter illustrates the role of leisure-related motivations for an under representative international sample of conference goers.     

Partitioning uncertain workloads

We present a method for determining the ratio of the tasks when breaking any complex workload in such a way that once the outputs from all tasks are joined, their full completion takes less time and exhibit smaller variance than when running on the undivided workload. To do that, we have to infer the capabilities of the processing unit executing the divided workloads or tasks. We propose a Bayesian Inference algorithm to infer the amount of time each task takes in a way that does not require prior knowledge on the processing unit capability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method in two different scenarios; the optimization of a convex function and the transmission of a large computer file over the Internet. Then we show that the Bayesian inference algorithm correctly estimates the amount of time each task takes when executed in one of the processing units.     

Management fads, pedagogies, and other soft technologies

We present a model for the diffusion of management fads and other technologies which lack clear objective evidence about their merits. The choices made by non-Bayesian adopters reflect both their own evaluations and the social influence of their peers. We show, both analytically and computationally, that the dynamics lead to outcomes that appear to be deterministic in spite of being governed by a stochastic process. In other words, when the objective evidence about a technology is weak, the evolution of this process quickly settles down to a fraction of adopters that is not predetermined. When the objective evidence is strong, the proportion of adopters is determined by the quality of the evidence and the adopters’ competence.     

TRADE DISPUTES AND SETTLEMENT

We develop a model of trade agreements with renegotiation and imperfectly verifiable information. In equilibrium, trade disputes can occur and can be resolved in a variety of ways: Governments may settle “early” or trigger a court ruling, and in the latter case, they may implement the ruling or reach a post‐ruling settlement. The model yields predictions on how the dispute outcome depends on the contracting environment and how it correlates with the optimal contract form. We find support for a key prediction of our model using data on the outcomes of actual trade disputes in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization.     

Designing software for operational decision support through coloured Petri nets

Operational support provides, during the execution of a business process, replies to questions such as ‘how do I end the execution of the process in the cheapest way?’ and ‘is my execution compliant with some expected behaviour?’ These questions may be asked several times during a single execution and, to answer them, dedicated software components (the so-called operational support providers) need to be invoked. Therefore, an infrastructure is needed to handle multiple providers, maintain data between queries about the same execution and discard information when it is no longer needed. In this paper, we use coloured Petri nets (CPNs) to model and analyse software implementing such an infrastructure. This analysis is needed to clarify the requirements before implementation and to guarantee that the resulting software is correct. To this aim, we present techniques to represent and analyse state spaces with 250 million states on a normal PC. We show how the specified requirements have been implemented as a plug-in of the process mining tool ProM and how the operational support in ProM can be used in combination with an existing operational support provider.     

Earnings vs. stock-price based incentives in managerial compensation contracts

We develop a theory of stock-price-based incentives even when the stock price does not contain information unknown to the firm. In our model, a manager must search for and decide on new investment projects when the market may have a difference of opinion about the quality of the firm’s investment opportunities. The firm optimally provides incentives based solely on realized earnings, leading to an efficient investment policy, when the market has congruent or pessimistic beliefs; however, the firm optimally introduces stock-price-based incentives, leading to an inefficient investment policy, when the market has optimistic beliefs. If the firm can raise equity capital on favorable terms, negative NPV projects from the perspective of the firm may be positive NPV projects from the perspective of current shareholders. The firm motivates the manager to take such projects by basing some compensation on the current stock price.     

Efficiency and regulation in the case of the Swiss Private Railways

This paper discusses the efficiency of the Swiss Private Railways in an economic and regulatory context. For this purpose, scale efficiency and overall cost efficiency for 48 Swiss private railway companies are investigated. A translog cost function for a four-year panel is estimated and measures of economies of scale and density are derived. A compound indicator for network size and structure is introduced. The estimation results allow for a discussion of efficiency in terms of optimal scale and density. Overall cost efficiency is estimated by means of a frontier cost function. The findings on efficiency are discussed in the Swiss political and regulatory context. More specifically, a regression on the influence of ownership and subsidy structure on the efficiency is performed. The findings are that most of the Swiss private railway companies operate at an inappropriately low scale and density. While the companies are rather homogenous in terms of overall cost efficiency, evidence is found for a significant influence of regulation in terms of the subsidy structure.     

Technology gap and international trade: an evolutionary model

We propose a model of the international technology gap that focuses on two sources of self-reinforcing mechanisms in the industrial competition: (i) a positive feedback that runs from innovations to profits to R & D expenditures, and (ii) learning effects in R & D and in production. We find that, if the cost of labor is lower in the late-starter country, several dynamic paths are possible, including one in which the late-starter catches up and then reverses the technology gap. When international diffusion of technology is introduced, the system has a bifurcation structure: if technology diffusion is relatively slow, there are two steady-state levels of the technology gap, one in favor of each country; if diffusion is fast, there is a unique stable equilibrium gap in favor of the country that has an exogenous (Ricardian) cost advantage.