Dancing on the Slippery Slope: The Effects of Appropriate Versus Inappropriate Competitive Tactics on Negotiation Process and Outcome

As negotiation is critical to all forms of organizational decision-making, researchers have shown an interest in understanding how the flow of information (valid and otherwise) influences this process. Often, competitive, questionable, and unethical tactics have been treated as interchangeable in these studies, despite presumed differences in appropriateness. The purpose of this study was to examine the similarities and differences in negotiators’ use and efficacy of appropriate competitive tactics (e.g., exaggerated offers) versus inappropriate competitive tactics (e.g., factual misrepresentations), primarily through a negotiation simulation. The study found that although these two categories of tactics were correlated in terms of overall use, appropriate competitive behaviors were used more frequently, especially early in negotiations, and these behaviors often resulted in comparable responses from counterparts. While ultimately increasing the likelihood of a negotiation impasse, the use of appropriate competitive tactics improved an individual’s substantive outcome where agreements could be reached. Inappropriate competitive tactics were likely to increase in number the sooner they were first employed in negotiations, with a response of inappropriate competitive tactics to the first use of competitive tactics increasing the likelihood of subsequent use of inappropriate tactics. The implications of these and other findings for both practitioners and future research are discussed.     

Increasing Dominance with No Efficiency Effect

I uncover a new force towards increasing dominance (the property whereby, in dynamic games, the leader tends to increase his or her lead in expected terms). The new effect results from the strategic choice of covariance in races. I assume that players must choose not the amount of resources to spend but how to allocate those resources. I show that, in equilibrium, the laggard chooses a less promising path, in effect trading off lower expected value for lower correlation with respect to the leader. This results in increasing dominance and holds true even if no joint-payoff (or efficiency) effect is present. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, L1.     

Empirical comparisons of some tests of separate families of hypotheses

Summary This paper is devoted to a comparison of the asymptotic tests of separate families of hypotheses proposed byCox [1961, 1962] and byAtkinson [1970]. The adequacy of the asymptotic results for finite samples is investigated and some conclusions reached. An examination of the terms which differentiate the two procedures is made. Empirical simulated results are discussed for cases involving the exponential, the lognormal and the Weibull distributions.

---

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird ein Vergleich angestellt zwischen den Vorschlägen vonCox [1961, 1962] undAtkinson [1970] über asymptotische Tests separierter Familien von Hypothesen. Die Angemessenheit der asymptotischen Resultate für endliche Proben wird untersucht und einige Folgerungen gezogen. Eine Prüfung der Terme, die die beiden Verfahren differenzieren, wird vorgenommen. Empirisch simultierte Resultate werden distribuiert für Fälle mit exponential, lognormal und Weibull Verteilungen.

     

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: a Reference Approach

For any probability model M={p(x|θ, ω), θεΘ, ωεΩ} assumed to describe the probabilistic behaviour of data xεX, it is argued that testing whether or not the available data are compatible with the hypothesis H₀={θ=θ₀} is best considered as a formal decision problem on whether to use (a₀), or not to use (a₀), the simpler probability model (or null model) M₀={p(x|θ₀, ω), ωεΩ}, where the loss difference L(a₀, θ, ω) –L(a₀, θ, ω) is proportional to the amount of information δ(θ₀, ω), which would be lost if the simplified model M₀ were used as a proxy for the assumed model M. For any prior distribution π(θ, ω), the appropriate normative solution is obtained by rejecting the null model M₀ whenever the corresponding posterior expectation ∫∫δ(θ₀, θ, ω)π(θ, ω|x)dθdω is sufficiently large. Specification of a subjective prior is always difficult, and often polemical, in scientific communication. Information theory may be used to specify a prior, the reference prior, which only depends on the assumed model M, and mathematically describes a situation where no prior information is available about the quantity of interest. The reference posterior expectation, d(θ₀, x) =∫δπ(δ|x)dδ, of the amount of information δ(θ₀, θ, ω) which could be lost if the null model were used, provides an attractive nonnegative test function, the intrinsic statistic, which is invariant under reparametrization. The intrinsic statistic d(θ₀, x) is measured in units of information, and it is easily calibrated (for any sample size and any dimensionality) in terms of some average log‐likelihood ratios. The corresponding Bayes decision rule, the Bayesian reference criterion (BRC), indicates that the null model M₀ should only be rejected if the posterior expected loss of information from using the simplified model M₀ is too large or, equivalently, if the associated expected average log‐likelihood ratio is large enough. The BRC criterion provides a general reference Bayesian solution to hypothesis testing which does not assume a probability mass concentrated on M₀ and, hence, it is immune to Lindley's paradox. The theory is illustrated within the context of multivariate normal data, where it is shown to avoid Rao's paradox on the inconsistency between univariate and multivariate frequentist hypothesis testing.     

Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal

In this paper, we use a VAR approach to investigate the effects of public investment in transportation infrastructures on private investment, employment, and output in Portugal. Estimation results suggest that public investment crowds in private investment and employment, and has a strong positive effect on output. We estimate that one euro in public investment increases output in the long‐term by 9.5 euros, which corresponds to a rate of return of 15.9%. These figures imply that there are strong long‐term budgetary benefits from public investment in the form of increased future tax revenues. A closer look at the effects of different types of public investment uncovers the same general patterns. These results are very important from a public policy perspective. They suggest that the strategy followed by the Portuguese authorities of investing in public infrastructures is justified, both from a long‐term development perspective and a long‐term public budgetary perspective.     

Liquidity and conditional portfolio choice: A nonparametric investigation

This paper studies the relation between liquidity and optimal portfolio allocations. Given that the portfolio problem of a constant relative risk aversion investor does not have a closed-form solution, we use a nonparametric approach to estimate the optimal allocations. Using a sample of NYSE stocks from 1963–2000, we find that the optimal portfolio weight in small stocks is strongly increasing in liquidity at short daily and weekly horizons. This result is consistent for three different measures of liquidity: price impact, dollar volume, and turnover. However, liquidity does not influence the optimal portfolio choice for large stocks, nor for longer monthly investment horizons.     

Cost of doing business index in Latin America

Quality & Quantity - The World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index (EDBI) has been widely used in analyzes of attracting investments and formulating public policies. Despite its importance...     

The NEP Scale: A measure of network export performance

The interdependence between varying participants in exporting networks that has resulted from processes of globalization magnifies the inadequacies of using single-item measures and internally oriented perspectives to assess export performance. In order to overcome these concerns, we developed a network export performance (NEP) scale using as a basis network theory, a diversity of network-oriented indicators and different types of respondents. The final multi-dimensional NEP Scale includes 25 items grouped into five dimensions: (a) overall export venture performance, (b) relationship performance with the importer versus competitors, (c) relationship performance with the supplier, (d) product quality performance of the supplier, and (e) importer's satisfaction with the quality of the supplied product. Findings reveal that the flow of communication and interaction within exporting networks is positively and significantly associated with all of the five dimensions of the NEP Scale. Discussion centers on implications of this scale to network theory, international business, and to the managerial development of exporting strategies. The article closes with directions for future research.     

The contribution of vocational training to employment,job‐related skills and productivity: evidence from Madeira

In this paper, we analyse the transition to the labor market of participants in vocational training in Madeira in Portugal. The analysis is in two stages. First, we investigate how the employment status at different dates (1 month, 1 year, and 2 years after the completion of the training program) depends on relevant variables, such as age, gender, education and the content and duration of the training. Second, we use individuals' self‐assessment of the effectiveness of the training program along three dimensions: employment, job‐related skills and productivity. The respondents score training activities high on every dimension. Moreover, we find that training is more effective among the educated, indicating that vocational training is far from being remedial. We also find that long training programs and training related to tourism are particularly effective.     

Sovereign default: Which shocks matter?

This paper analyses a small open economy that wants to borrow from abroad, cannot commit to repay debt but faces costs if it decides to default. The model generates analytical expressions for the impact of shocks on the incentive compatible level of debt. Debt reduction generated by severe output shocks is no more than a couple of percentage points. In contrast, shocks to world interest rates can substantially affect the incentive compatible level of debt.