Bayesian estimation of the output gap for a small open economy: The case of Canada

We introduce a novel approach for estimating output gaps for small open economies. Identification is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition in which transitory exchange rate movements are linked to the output gap and inflation. The model is then applied to Canadian data.     

Determinants of European stock market integration

We analyse the determinants of stock market integration among EU member states for the period 1999–2007. First, we apply bivariate DCC-MGARCH models to extract dynamic conditional correlations between European stock markets, which are then explained by interest rate spreads, exchange rate risk, market capitalisation, and business cycle synchronisation in a pooled OLS model. By grouping the countries into euro area countries, “old” EU member states outside the euro area, and new EU member states, we also evaluate the impact of euro introduction and the European unification process on stock market integration. We find a significant trend toward more stock market integration, which is enhanced by the size of relative and absolute market capitalisation and hindered by foreign exchange risk between old member states and the euro area. Interest rate spreads and business cycle synchronisation are also significant factors in explaining equity market integration.     

Anforderungen an den konventionellen Kraftwerkspark – wieviel und welche Kraftwerkskapazit?t wird ben?tigt?

The electricity supply system will, particularly in Germany, significantly be determined by the use of renewable energy sources. A?decreasing energetic utilization along with an increasing flexibility demand lead to chancing requirements for the conventional plant fleet. The question arises to what extent conventional generation capacity is needed in the future and if??compared to today??additional technical requirements have to be fulfilled due to the increased flexibility demand. Furthermore it has to be discussed how a required capacity level can be achieved and if??and under which conditions??today??s market design is sufficient or if additional capacity mechanism are necessary. These questions are discussed in this article. The questions as to the required capacity level and the means to achieve it depend on the perspective, which is chosen with respect to security of supply. Choosing a European perspective, i.e. a common responsibility for an appropriate level of security of supply in Europe, additional capacity mechanism are not necessary. Choosing a national perspective, i.e. requiring that national demand can??theoretically??be covered by capacity available in the particular country, does not only significantly increase the necessary amount of generation capacity but also??due to the fact that the electricity market already today is organized on a European rather than a national basis??requires additional capacity mechanisms to cover capacity demand. With respect to the flexibility demand a concerted as well as coordinated acting of the different independent market players is necessary to cover a more volatile residual load. However, there is no additional demand for technical flexibility.     

Pattern Bargaining: An Investigation into its Agency,Context and Evidence

Pattern bargaining stands out as both an under‐researched and controversial subject. This article is an analytical and empirical contribution to this debate. Theoretically, it provides a conceptual framework, which enables analysis to systematically differentiate between distinct forms of pattern bargaining in terms of scope, agency, development and function, which arise from differing contexts in terms of interest configuration, power relations and economic conditions. This framework is used to develop testable hypotheses on pattern bargaining as a mechanism of inter‐industry bargaining co‐ordination. The empirical part of the article examines these hypotheses for collective bargaining from 1969 to 2004 in Austria, which is commonly seen as a paradigm case of pattern bargaining. The article concludes by highlighting the broader implications its findings have from a cross‐nationally comparative perspective.     

Government capital formation: Explaining the decline

Government Capital Formation: Explaining the Decline. —This paper examines whether various hypotheses put forward to explain the downward trends in government capital spending are supported by the data. Using panel data for 22 OECD countries for 1980–1992, various hypotheses are tested in a model. The authors find support for three hypotheses: (1) capital spending is reduced during periods of fiscal stringency, since this category of government spending is politically an easier target for cuts than other spending categories; (2) myopic governments will cut investment spending more than governments which have a longer policy horizon; (3) private investment influences government investment spending, because both types of investment are complementary.     

Schumpeterian competition in heterogeneous oligopolies

The modeling of Schumpeterian competition as a process of innovation, imitation and selection was first presented by Nelson/Winter (1982) in a simulation study and further analyzed in a similar but general analytical formulation by Iwai (1984a, 1984b). Their results concerning the relations between the combination of the different forces of Schumpeterian competition and market structure respectively the distributions of profits are interesting, but restricted to competitive markets. Comparing rules of thumb and satisficing for the Ramp;D decisions the present study analyzes the process of Schumpeterian competition in a heterogeneous oligopoly. Firstly, the authors find for the Ramp;D-concentration relation results contrary to the traditional interpretation of Schumpeter. Secondly, Iwai’s (1984a, 1984b) qualitative results hold in this less restrictive modeling.     

Corporate Taxes in the European Union

The enlargement of the European Union in 2004 and 2007 by a number of countries with comparatively low corporate tax rates – seen by some as representing an unfair competitive advantage – has refuelled the debate on corporate taxation in Europe. The present Forum highlights a number of pertinent issues and discusses the challenges implied for European corporate tax policy. *The authors are indebted to Andreas Reutter for helpful comments. **The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author. They should not be attributed to the European Commission. The author wishes to thank Anton Jevcav for valuable comments. ? European Communities, 2007.