Publication bias in the German social sciences: an application of the caliper test to three top-tier German social science journals

Systematic research reviews have become essential in all empirical sciences. However, the validity of research syntheses is threatened if the preparation, submission or publication of research findings depends on the statistical significance of these findings. The present study investigates publication bias in three top-tier journals in the German social sciences, utilizing the caliper test. For the period between 2001 and 2010, we have collected 156 articles that appeared in the Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie (KZfSS), the Zeitschrift für Soziologie (ZfS) and the Politische Vierteljahresschrift (PVS). In all three journals, we found empirical evidence for the existence of publication bias at the 10 % significance level. We also investigated possible causes linked to this bias, including single versus multiple authorship as well as academic degree. We found only weak support for the relationships between individual author characteristics and publication bias.     

GRAPHICAL MODELS FOR CORRELATED DEFAULTS

A simple graphical model for correlated defaults is proposed, with explicit formulas for the loss distribution. Algebraic geometry techniques are employed to show that this model is well posed for default dependence: it represents any given marginal distribution for single firms and pairwise correlation matrix. These techniques also provide a calibration algorithm based on maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the model is compared with standard normal copula model in terms of tails of the loss distribution and implied correlation smile.     

News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets

We employ DCC-MGARCH models to investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are somewhat isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the time-varying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests a dominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.     

Intensive Prophylaxe

Hygiene und Infektionsprophylaxe tragen ma?geblich zur Verkürzung der Beatmungzeit und der Verweildauer von Patienten auf der Intensivstation bei. Was gilt hier für Personalhygiene, H?ndedesinfektion und Schutzausrüstung?     

Customer Care — Wertschöpfung durch Inbound Marketing

Mit sinkender Wirksamkeit und zunehmender rechtlicher Eingrenzung von Outbound-Aktivit?ten ger?t das ?konomische Potenzial von Inbound-Kundenkontakten zunehmend ins Blickfeld. Unter dem Schlagwort des „Inbound Marketing“ erh?lt das Customer Care damit eine st?rkere vertriebliche Ausrichtung. Allerdings muss dafür Sorge getragen werden, dass mit der Verst?rkung von Vertriebsaktivit?ten tats?chlich eine Steigerung und nicht eine Gef?hrdung der spezifischen Wertsch?pfungspotenziale im Customer Care erfolgt.     

Industry-Level Wage Bargaining: A Partial Rehabilitation—The German Experience

In order to reduce unemployment, it is often recommended that industry-level wage bargaining in Germany should be replaced by a more decentralized system. This paper provides a critical assessment of the current wage bargaining institutions and re-examines the case for a more decentralized system. Based on a theoretical model integrating Insider–Outsider aspects into the comparison, the uniformly superior employment performance of a decentralized wage bargaining system is questioned. We conclude that, rather than solely trying to decentralize wage bargaining, a promising policy option may be to improve the skills of the unemployed by efficient labour market policies and to foster institutional reforms such that wage bargaining takes account of the long-run employment consequences of wage setting.     

Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock

Job loss expectations were widespread amongst workers in East Germany following reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were nevertheless overpessimistic immediately after reunification with respect to their job loss risk. Over time, job loss expectations fell and converged to West German levels, which was driven by a stabilizing economic environment and by an adaptation of the interpretation of economic signals with workers learning to distinguish individual risk from firm-level risk. In fact, conditional on actual job loss risk, East German workers quickly caught up to West Germans regarding the share of correctly predicted job losses.