Strategisches Asset-Liability Management in der Versicherungswirtschaft — Ein Ansatz zur integrierten Bilanzstrukturoptimierung

Asset-Liability Management has gained increased significance within the German insurance industry. This was mainly driven by recent capital market developments. In fact, insurers have encountered challenges to earn given interest guarantees. Regulatory changes also require more sophisticated ALM-tools. Solvency II will change the underlying paradigm and shift balance sheets perception towards a market value oriented view. Especially liabilities will have to be accounted for using the fair value approach. Most ALM-tools appear to be unable to cope with these demands. To improve this current practice, in this paper a Markowitz-approach is employed in order to generate an integrated method for the optimization of assets and liabilities in the life insurance industry. This technique aims to link new regulatory requirements to the latest capital market theory and therefore delivers a procedure for an integrated asset allocation policy in the insurance industry.     

Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns

We argue that the use of publicly available and easily accessible information on economic and financial crises to detect structural breaks in the link between stock returns and macroeconomic predictor variables improves the performance of simple trading rules in real time. In particular, our results suggest that accounting for structural breaks and regime shifts in forecasting regressions caused by economic and financial crises has the potential to increase the out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, the performance of simple trading rules, and the market-timing ability of an investor trading in the U.S. stock market.     

Global and Country‐Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

We identify global and country‐specific measures of output growth uncertainty for a large OECD country sample by means of a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. We find evidence for major bouts of global uncertainty in the early 1970s and late 2000s, and a number of periods with elevated levels of either global or national uncertainty, particularly in the early 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. VAR impulse responses of national macroeconomic variables to our estimated measures of uncertainty reveal that global uncertainty is the major driver of macroeconomic performance in most countries, whereas the impact of national uncertainty is small and frequently insignificant. We also find that uncertainty is transmitted primarily through investment and trade flows rather than through consumption demand.     

An Experimental Bribery Game

Essential characteristics of corruption are (1) reciprocityrelationships between bribers and public officials, (2) negativewelfare effects, and (3) high penalties when discovered. Weseparate the influences of these factors in an experiment. Ina two-player game, reciprocation is economically inefficientthrough negative externalities. A control treatment withoutexternalities is also conducted. In a third, so-called suddendeath treatment, corrupt pairs face a low probability of exclusionfrom the experiment without payment. The results show that reciprocitycan establish bribery relationships, where negative externalitieshave no apparent effect. The penalty threat significantly reducescorruption, although discovery probabilities are typically underestimated.     

Political Leaders' Socioeconomic Background and Public Budget Deficits: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between political leaders' socioeconomic backgrounds and public budget deficits utilizing panel data on 21 OECD countries from 1980 to 2008. Building on sociological, as well as economic research, we argue that the socioeconomic status of political decision‐makers, i.e., presidents or prime ministers, is an important determinant of fiscal budget decisions. Our theory‐consistent findings show that the tenures of lower‐class leaders – i.e., leaders of low socioeconomic status – are associated with a deficit‐to‐GDP ratio which is 1.6 percentage points higher than that during tenures of upper‐class leaders.     

Contextual priming of visual information in advertisements

Can the program context significantly influence the perception of an ad? Past advertising research has demonstrated contextual priming effects on the verbal part of an ad. Using public service and clothing advertisements, the present two experiments provide evidence for priming effects on visual components. Moreover, in extensive debriefing sessions, participants reported that they were not consciously aware of the influence of the contextual prime-suggesting the presence of implicit memory effects. Future research should focus on advertisements containing both verbal and visual information to better understand context influences on advertisements. 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.