Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

On The Log-Linear Analysis Of Multiple Response Data

Log-linear procedures have been recommended for analyzing data that are in the form of counts or frequencies (Iacobucci and McGill 1990). In its current form, the recommended procedure does not deal with multiple response data (i.e., more than one thought per response category). The paper proposes analytical modifications that researchers need to consider when fitting models with this type of data. The problems and recommended modifications are illustrated with two distinct data sets. The first involves consumers' attribution responses to negative word-of-mouth communication about a brand whereas the second pertains to consumers' cognitive responses toward an advertisement. Results in each case indicate that researchers may generate erroneous conclusions about the significance of estimated parameters if the recommendations are ignored.     

Targeted advertising as a signal

This study presents a signaling model of advertising for horizontally differentiated products. The central ingredients of the model are two important characteristics of advertising—targeting, and noisy information content. The theory yields interesting results about the informational role of targeted advertising, and its consequences. First, targeting can itself serve as a signal on product attributes. Second, the effectiveness of targeting depends not only on firms knowing consumer preferences, but on consumers knowing that firms know this. This creates a distinction between strategies of targeting and personalization. Third, the effectiveness of targeting in equilibrium may (far) exceed the information contained directly in the targeted message. Fourth, information content is not, however, superfluous. Specifically, when ads contain no information, a targeting equilibrium does not exist. Together, these results reveal how advertising conveys information both through the content of the message and the firm’s choice of advertising medium. Furthermore, the model is robust to the various critiques of prior work on ads-as-signals: namely, that ad content is irrelevant, ad exposure is unnecessary, and the choice of ads as signals is inherently arbitrary.

Risk aversion, generalized correlation and investment in manufacturing capacities

This study analyzes the relationship between product demand correlation and risk on the investment in dedicated and flexible manufacturing capacities. It is proved that for a risk averse (or risk neutral) decision-maker, increased generalized correlation between output demands reduces the values of both dedicated and flexible manufacturing investments for all multivariate distributions. It is shown that no such monotonic relationship generally exists for the capacities themselves because of an economic tradeoff between risk and return. It is also proved that increased generalized correlation reduces the value of flexible capacity relative to dedicated capacity for the risk-neutral decision maker. However, contrary to the extant literature, flexible capacity is still shown to be potentially valuable even if product demands are perfectly positively correlated. Finally, it is shown that increases in the risk of product demand, holding correlation (of product demand) constant, reduces the value of the investment in manufacturing capacities when output demands are either jointly normal or independent.     

KALDORIAN DEMAND FUNCTIONS AND THE RETURN TO CAPITAL: AN ANALYSIS IN A TRADE THEORETIC FRAMEWORK

Abstract.  This paper shows that under certain plausible conditions capital accumulation raises the return to capital. A three good trade theoretic model with Kaldorian demand functions is used to establish this result. This proposition is also independent of the assumption of diminishing return to capital a key feature of endogenous growth theory. Our result sheds light on the high rates of investment and growth that many East Asian economies have achieved.     

R&D Reporting Biases and Their Consequences*

The immediate expensing of research and development (R&D) expenditures is often justified by the conservatism principle. However, no accounting procedure consistently applied can be conservative throughout the firm's life. We therefore ask the following questions: (1) When is the expensing of R&D conservative and when is it aggressive, relative to R&D capitaliza‐tion? (2) What are the capital‐market implications of these reporting biases? To address these questions we construct a model of profitability biases (differences between reported profitability under R&D expensing and capitalization) and show that the key drivers of the reporting biases are the differences between R&D growth and earnings growth (momentum), and between R&D growth and return on equity (ROE). Companies with a high R&D growth rate relative to their profitability (typically early life‐cycle companies) report conservatively, while firms with a low R&D growth rate (mature companies) tend to report aggressively under current generally accepted accounting principles. Our empirical analysis, covering the period 1972‐2003, generally supports the analytical predictions. In the valuation analysis we find evidence consistent with investor fixation on the reported profitability measures: we detect undervaluation of conservatively reporting firms and overvaluation of aggressively reporting firms. These misvaluations appear to be corrected when the reporting biases reverse from conservative to aggressive and vice versa. This evidence is consistent with behavioral finance arguments about investor cognitive biases.     

ILLEGAL MIGRANTS, TOURISM AND WELFARE: A TRADE THEORETIC APPROACH

Abstract.  Many countries receive illegal migrants but are reluctant to accept them due to possible negative externalities. We provide a rationale for not policing illegal migration by linking it to the tourism industry. By paying illegal migrants less than local workers, the relative price of the non-traded goods is shown to be lower than it would be in the absence of such workers. An expansion in tourist trade, under certain intensity conditions, necessarily raises resident welfare and employment. This tourist boom necessarily lowers the welfare of the illegal migrants. It is established that an increase in tourism increases the supply of illegal migrants.     

Information technology investment strategies: a review and synthesis of the literature

In spite of high importance of information technology (IT) investments, managers do not have sufficient guidelines to formulate IT investment strategy of a firm. In this paper, we review the literature to determine the factors that influence the IT investment strategy. The concept of IT investment strategy so far considered two domains: intensity and proactiveness; we enhance this concept by adding the domain of investment focus. Through this review, we made an attempt to answer three strategic questions related to IT investments: (i) level of investment that a firm should make in IT, that is, investment intensity; (ii) areas of firm where these investments should be more focused, that is, investment focus; and (iii) timing of investment, that is, whether to be an early mover in adopting IT or whether to invest relatively late compared to competitors.     

Economic reforms of agriculture and rural growth

Successful rural growth episodes in India indicate a process of growth and diversification that is based on the development of producer services. A simple theoretical model of this process is sketched to suggest impediments to such a process of growth and thus to offer a possible explanation of rural stagnation in many areas in India. Agricultural policies in India of the present and the recent past are analysed in the light of such a framework.