Capital adjustment cost and inconsistency in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects

After the seminal work of Nickell (1981), a vast literature demonstrates the inconsistency of ‘conditional convergence’ estimator in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects when the time horizon (T) is short but the sample of countries (N) is large. Less attention is given to the economic root of inconsistency of the fixed effects estimator when T is also large. Using a variant of the Ramsey growth model with long‐run adjustment cost of capital, we demonstrate that the fixed effects estimator of such models could be inconsistent when T is large. This inconsistency arises because of the long‐run adjustment cost of capital which gives rise to a negative moving average coefficient in the error term. Income convergence will be thus overestimated. We theoretically characterize the order of this inconsistency. Our Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the size of the bias is substantial and it is greater in economies with higher capital adjustment costs. We show that the use of instrumental variables that take into account the presence of the negative moving average term in the error will overcome this bias.     

Discussion of “Conditional and UnconditionalConservatism: Concepts and Modeling”

Beaver and Ryan (Beaver, W. H., Ryan S. G. (2005). Review of Accounting Studies 10: (2/3)) algebraically model, simulate and graph the effects of various factors on the nonlinear earnings-return relation induced by conditional conservatism. Their analysis clarifies how conditional and unconditional conservatism are inter-related. I discuss why unconditional and conditional conservatism are more than mere substitutes, and provide evidence from the historical record. I then highlight a few areas for future modeling, before moving on to discuss potential empirical tests of their predicted relations. I identify some research questions and opportunities for future investigation.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Redistributive innovation policy,inequality, and efficiency

We examine the efficiency and distributional effects of regressive and progressive public R&D policies that target high‐tech and low‐tech sectors using a heterogenous‐agent growth model with in‐house R&D and incomplete capital markets. We find that such policies have important implications for efficiency and inequality. A regressive public R&D investment financed by income tax could boost growth and welfare via a positive effect on individual savings and effort. It could, however, also lower growth and welfare via its effect on the efficiency–inequality trade‐off. Thus, the relationship between public R&D spending and welfare is hump‐shaped, admitting an optimal degree of regressivity in public R&D spending. Using our baseline model, and the US state‐level GDP data, we derive the degree of regressiveness of public R&D investment in US states. We find that US states are more regressive in their R&D investment than the optimal regressiveness implied by our growth model.     

Trends in corporate diversification

This paper studies the diversification and refocusing strategies of firms in the last three decades. The 1980s were characterized by a trend towards greater focus. This trend slackens in the 1990s to be replaced by a surge in the number of newly listed single-segment firms. From 2000 to 2007 there is very little change in the proportion of diversified firms. Overall, the proportion of conglomerates declines from 40% to 17% from 1980 to 1997. In addition, about one third of the diversifying firms reverse the diversification decision within four years. The analysis of the statements made by these firms suggests that there is significant heterogeneity in the motivations behind diversification.     

Locational choice for free trade zones: a comment

In this comment we derive conditions under which there are no equilibria for the models investigated by Miyagiwa (1993).     

Balance-of-payments policies and structural reforms: An adaptive-control model for India

An adaptive-control model, where parameters of the model will change in response to policy optimizations, is constructed for India and solutions of the optimization process provide the planned paths for some of the most important macro policy instruments of the economy. Comparisons of the planned paths and the actual behavior of the economy show that the capitalistic reform process in India is not a success, but a mixed economic plan would be more beneficial for the economy.     

Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure

We construct long–short factor mimicking portfolios that capture the hedging pressure risk premium of commodity futures. We consider single sorts based on the open interests of hedgers or speculators, as well as double sorts based on both positions. The long–short hedging pressure portfolios are priced cross-sectionally and present Sharpe ratios that systematically exceed those of long-only benchmarks. Further tests show that the hedging pressure risk premiums rise with the volatility of commodity futures markets and that the predictive power of hedging pressure over cross-sectional commodity futures returns is different from the previously documented forecasting power of past returns and the slope of the term structure.