Learning with noiseless information and payoff-relevant signals

Summary. In models of active learning or experimentation, agents modify their actions to affect the distribution of a signal that provides information about future payoffs. A standard result in the experimentation literature is that agents experiment, if at all, to increase information. This finding is a direct consequence of Blackwell's theorem: one experiment is more informative than another if and only if all expected utility maximizers prefer to observe the first. Blackwell's theorem presupposes, however, that the observed signal only conveys information and does not directly affect future payoffs. Often, however, signals are directly payoff relevant, a phenomenon that we call signal dependence. For example, if a firm is uncertain about its demand and uses today's sales as a signal of tomorrow's demand, then that signal may also directly affect tomorrow's profit if the good is durable or if consumers form consumption habits. Datta, Mirman and Schlee [9] and Bertocchi and Spagat [4] show that, if the signal is payoff relevant, experimentation may indeed reduce information. Here we show that, despite the inapplicability of Blackwell's Theorem, agents always experiment to increase information if the information structure is noiseless: given the true value of the unknown parameter, the signal realization is deterministic. We then apply our framework to analyze Lazear's [16] model of retail clearance sales, a model with both signal dependence and noiseless information. Received: February 19, 1999; revised version: August 11, 1999     

Looking beyond the focal industry and existing technologies for radical innovations

The “radicalness” of an innovation is often contingent upon access to distinct technologies which arise from sourcing innovation outside a firms' focal industry (exterior sourcing). We posit that exterior sourcing leads to technology distinctness and that the presence of technology distinctness significantly affects the relationship between exterior sourcing and radicalness. In addition, we assert that high technology distinctness results in a stronger association with radicalness irrespective of the levels of exterior sourcing. Further, at lower levels of exterior sourcing, technology distinctness will have a stronger relationship with radicalness than at higher levels of exterior sourcing. We also argue that high technology distinctness and low exterior sourcing will have the strongest relationship with radicalness. We used patent filings from 1996 through 2009 from the IT industry from within the S&P-500 database to test our assertions. The empirical evidence validated our affirmations. Our findings suggest that to maximize the chance of radical innovations, firms must obtain highly distinct technologies from minimum possible contacts outside their focal industry. We conclude the paper by summarizing the key findings, discussing implications for theory and practice, and suggesting avenues for future research.     

Optimal administrative geographies: An algorithmic approach

Centrally planned Beveridge healthcare systems typically rely heavily on local or regional “health authorities” as responsible organisations for the care of geographically defined populations. The frequency of reorganisations in the English NHS suggests that there is no compelling unitary definition of what constitutes a good healthcare geography. In this paper we propose a set of desirable objectives for an administrative healthcare geography, specifically: geographical compactness, co-extensiveness with current local authorities and size and population homogeneity, and we show how these might be operationally measured. Based on these objectives, we represent the problem of how to partition a territory into health authorities as a multi-objective optimisation problem. We use a state-of-the-art multi-objective genetic algorithm customised for the needs of our study to partition the territory of the East England into 14 Primary Care Trusts and 50 GP consortia and study the tradeoffs between objectives which this reveals.     

Governing new global health-care markets: the case of stem cell treatments

Stem cell innovation has enabled the growth of a global market of treatments for a wide range of diseases but most of this market operates outside the domain of orthodox forms of innovation governance. Much of the analysis of this issue has adopted a supply side perspective informed by the values of the orthodox scientific model of biomedical innovation, arguing that national and transnational regulation has failed to impose appropriate standards on the ‘illicit’ supply of stem cell treatments. In contrast, this paper shows how and why the analysis of global stem cell innovation governance must incorporate the market and health consumer demand into the conceptual framework. Central to the argument is the role of innovation models in mediating the relationship between demand and supply in the global market of new stem cell treatments. Different models of scientific and medical innovation mediate that relationship in different ways and, in jurisdictions where health consumer demand is frustrated, may result in parallel political demands for change in stem cell innovation governance. Such demands are likely to be resisted by the dominant scientific model, producing a further response from health consumers and a continuing dynamic in the political economy of stem cell treatments.     

Non-cognitive child outcomes and universal high quality child care

Exploiting a rich panel data child survey merged with administrative records along with a pseudo-experiment generating variation in the take-up of preschool across municipalities, we provide evidence of the effects on non-cognitive child outcomes of participating in large scale publicly provided universal preschool programs and family day care vis-à-vis home care. We find that, compared to home care, being enrolled in preschool at age three does not lead to significant differences in child outcomes at age seven no matter the gender or the mother's level of education. Family day care, on the other hand, seems to significantly deteriorate outcomes for boys whose mothers have a lower level of education. Finally, longer hours in non-parental care lead to poorer child outcomes.     

From Coping Strategies to Tactics: London's Low‐Pay Economy and Migrant Labour

This article examines the means by which low‐paid migrant workers survive in a rapidly changing and increasingly unequal labour market. In a departure from the coping strategies literature, it is argued that the difficulties migrant workers face in the London labour market reduces their ability to ‘strategize’. Instead, workers adopt a range of ‘tactics’ that enable them to ‘get by’, if only just, on a day‐to‐day basis. The article explores these tactics with reference to the connections between different workers’ experiences of the workplace, home and community, and demonstrates the role of national, ethnic and gender relations in shaping migrant workers’ experiences of the London labour market and of the city more widely.     

Some Evidence on the Uniqueness of Initial Public Debt Offerings

Debt initial public offerings (IPOs) represent a major shift in a firm's financing policy by both extending debt maturity and altering the public-private debt mix. In contrast to findings for seasoned debt offerings, we document a significantly negative stock price response to debt IPO announcements. This result is consistent with debt maturity and debt ownership structure theories. The equity wealth effect is negatively related to the offer's maturity, and positively related to the degree of bank monitoring. We find that firms with less information asymmetry and firms with higher growth opportunities experience a less adverse stock price response.     

Production Costs,Scale Economies,and Technical Change in U.S. Textile and Apparel Industries

The elimination of quotas in textiles and apparel poses new threats from import competition. To survive, the sectors need to find least-cost methods of production. The production–cost structure of the U.S. textile and apparel industries is examined using a dual cost framework. A translog cost function is used to measure substitution elasticities between inputs, scale economies, and the nature of technical change. The scope for factor substitution in textiles remains limited with all substitution elasticities being less than unity. Labor and materials are complements in apparel production, but there is evidence of substitution between capital and labor. The rate of technical change is higher in textiles than in apparel. Given the intense import competition from low wage countries, in both industries, technical progress is labor saving. Overall, economies of scale are larger in apparel; however, scale economies have continued to increase in textiles.This research was supported by a grant from the National Textile Center.     

Dynamic Externalities and Policy Coordination

The paper introduces trade into dynamic models with externalities and capital accumulation, and evaluates the efficiency of the Cournot–Nash equilibrium. It considers mixed economies characterized by a blend of strategic and nonstrategic sectors. Also, there are two sources of interdependence: the existence of production externalities and the endogenous determination of market prices. It is shown that policy coordination is not needed when preferences are the same. In this case, the production externalities are internalized, so that an inefficient solution becomes the efficient integrated world equilibrium due to trade.