National pricing with local quality competition

We study the incentives of national retail chains to adopt national (uniform) prices across local markets that differ in size and competition intensity. In addition to price, the chains may also compete along a quality dimension, and quality is always set locally. We show that absent quality competition, the chains will never use national pricing. However, if quality competition is sufficiently strong there exist equilibria where at least one of the chains adopts national pricing. We also identify cases in which national pricing benefits (harms) all consumers, even in markets where such a pricing strategy leads to higher (lower) prices.     

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps. Comments from two anonymous referees, Q. Farooq Akram, Tommy Sveen, Ken West, Fredrik Wulfsberg and seminar participants in Norges Bank are gratefully acknowledged. All mistakes remain our own. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Norges Bank.     

A Review on Possible Approaches for Detecting Early Warning Signs in Projects

In this paper, we attempt to provide an overview of the full extent of early warning detection approaches, which are directly or indirectly addressed in the literature. These approaches can aid project managers in taking corrective actions timely enough for preventing failures. The study is based on a review of the current literature within the field of early warning in project management and our own experiences gained from practice. An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and their applications in different contexts are also performed. We conclude that the choice of the most effective approach is arguably dependent on the type of project, organizational culture, and the project environment.     

The Economics of Retailing Formats: Competition Versus Bargaining

We set up a merger game between retailing stores to study the incentives of independent stores to form a big store when some consumers have preferences for one‐stop shopping. Such one‐stop shopping creates complementarity between products, leading in turn to lower prices after a big store is formed but may also lead to an improvement in the bargaining position vis‐à‐vis producers through the creation of an inside option that small stores do not have. We find that big stores will not be formed when the stores' ex ante bargaining power vis‐à‐vis producers is high. Otherwise, an asymmetric situation occurs with only one big store created when one‐stop shoppers are abundant.     

Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway – an international comparison

This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles in Norway and selected countries. First version received: April 1997 / Final version received: November 1999     

Productive entrepreneurship and the effectiveness of insolvency legislation: a cross-country study

Small Business Economics - This paper studies the association between the effectiveness of insolvency regulations and entrepreneurship using multilevel modeling of about 300,000 individuals in 27...     

The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyses interactions between the real exchange rate and business cycles in a small open economy like Norway. Using a structural vector autoregression model, the role of different shocks are analysed, to investigate to what extent the real exchange rate is absorbing shocks, or a source of shocks itself. The results are ambiguous. Output and the real exchange rate are mainly explained by separate shocks, so that relinquishing exchange rate independence should come at little cost. However, the importance of nominal shocks in the business cycle emphasises that stabilisation is possible. Hence, remaining monetary independence may be attractive.     

Any need for coordination of policies towards transit traffic with a negative local externality?

International transit traffic between countries can be expected to increase in the future. This paper investigates whether international policy coordination is appropriate in the case of international transit traffic causing a local environmental externality. This issue is analysed in a two-country model where traffic is used as an input in production. It is found that individual optimization of the countries is likely to result in an outcome with less than optimal international traffic, i.e. too little pollution compared with optimum.