Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates

A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation, where the shifts may be caused by sudden oil price shocks, we examine whether evidence for long memory (indicated by the relevance of an ARFIMA model) in G7 inflation rates is spurious or exaggerated. Our main findings are that apparent long memory is quite resistant to level shifts, although for a few inflation rates we find that evidence for long memory disappears. First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998     

The international co-movements of Finish stocks

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the international co-movements of Finnish stocks. The vector autoregression (VAR) approach indicates that US and especially Swedish stock markets lead Finnish stock market returns by approximately one or two months. The results based on international market models indicate that the returns of individual Finnish stocks are significantly positively related to those of Sweden, while the relation between Finnish and US returns is significantly lower. The relation seems to vary clearly between industries, some industries being related to US markets as well. Significant time-series instability is reported in the results, however.     

Learning never goes on holiday: an exploration of social tourism as a context for experiential learning

This paper applies Experiential Learning Theory to examine learning experiences of UK children during a holiday to assess the potential of holidays as influencing factors in educational achievement and attainment. The paper presents findings from a study undertaken with low-income families who had received financial support to take a holiday through the concept of social tourism. The study concludes that across a range of holiday styles, tourism can provide a context for experiential learning, and that the holiday can help to contextualise classroom learning through relearning. Finally, this form of social tourism, which included cooperation between schools, families, social and education services and social tourism organisations helped to improve relationships between the schools and families, which could be beneficial for children's learning in school. This paper calls for further research on the links between tourism and education.     

Does market power affect performance in the dutch banking market? a comparison of reduced form market structure models

This paper investigates whether reduced form market structure models can be used to test whether there is market power in the Dutch banking market. First, a traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) model is introduced. Next, a simple Cournot-model is introduced, which results in a more flexible measure of market power for different market structures. Finally, the inclusion of a modified Efficiency hypothesis reduces identification problems. Theoretically speaking, the Cournot model provides a better foundation for testing the existence of market power than the SCP model. Likewise, explicitly correcting for and including efficiency results in a more correct test of the Efficiency hypothesis. Empirical results for Dutch data confirm that the introduced improvements based on the Cournot models are the only ones resulting in tests that are consistent with the underlying models. Evidence from the Cournot model suggests that we cannot reject the existence of market power, although its impact on performance may be small. It also formalizes the need for additional research into the importance of strategic interaction among banks.     

Imported input varieties and product innovation: Evidence from five developing countries

We examine how access to imported intermediate inputs affects firm‐level product innovation in five developing counties. We combine trade data with survey data on innovation and develop a method to determine whether new inputs were essential for the product innovation. We find evidence that the number of newly imported varieties has a significant impact on product innovations that rely on new inputs and provide suggestive evidence that this effect comes from access to better quality imports. We extend our analysis to assess the consequences of the increase in the number of Chinese exporting firms on product innovation in developing countries.