The Impact of the Asian Economic Crisis on Southern African Economies

Although southern African economies appear to have escaped the initial phase of the East Asian economic crisis relatively unscathed, the second stage of the contagion was somewhat less benevolent in its influence on southern African economies. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of the Asian contagion on southern African economies within a general equilibrium framework. We use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to examine the implications of the Asian crisis for southern African economies. Bien que les économies des pays du sud de l’Afrique semblent avoir échappées à la première phase de la crise économique de L’Asie de l’est, l’effet de la deuxième phase a été plus néfaste envers les économies des pays sud africains. Cet article cherche à enquÁter sur l’impact qu’a eu la contagion asiatique sur les économies des pays sud africains dans un cadre d’équilibre général. Nous utilisons le modèle du GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) afin d’interpréter les implications de la crise asiatique sur l’économie des pays sud africains.     

Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility

Abstract:   This paper examines the lead‐lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.     

Using Job Rotation to Extract Employee Information

This article provides an incentive-based explanation for thepractice of job rotation. When agents privately learn aboutthe productivity of tasks on which they work, job rotation canbe an efficient means of eliciting their information. Each agentfreely communicates his information since the switch in tasksguarantees his report will not subsequently be used againsthim; the report is used primarily in evaluating the new agentwho moves into the task. Another benefit is that an agent rotatedinto a job holds less task-specific information and is thuseasier to motivate. Job rotation also comes with a cost—agentsmust be compensated for the disutility of working on new tasks.We study this trade-off and identify conditions under whichjob rotation and specialization are each optimal.     

Extracting the Expected Path of Monetary Policy From Futures Rates

Federal funds and eurodollar futures contracts are among the most useful instruments for deriving expectations of the future path of monetary policy. However, reading policy expectations from those instruments is complicated by the presence of risk premia. This paper demonstrates how to extract the expected policy path under the assumption that risk premia are constant over time, and under a simple model that allows risk premia to vary. In the latter case, the risk premia are identified under the assumption that policy expectations level out after a long enough horizon. The results provide evidence that the risk premia on these futures contracts vary over time. The impact of this variation is fairly limited for futures contracts with short horizons, but it increases as the horizon of the contracts lengthens. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:733–754, 2004     

“I just like the stock”: The role of Reddit sentiment in the GameStop share rally

This paper investigates the role played by the social media platform Reddit in the events around the GameStop (GME) share rally in early 2021. In particular, we analyze the impact of discussions on the r/WallStreetBets subreddit on the price dynamics of the American online retailer GameStop. We customize a sentiment analysis dictionary for Reddit platform users based on the Valence Aware Dictionary and Sentiment Reasoner (VADER) sentiment analysis package and perform textual analysis on 10.8 million comments. The analysis of the relationships between Reddit sentiments and 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-min GameStop returns contribute to the growing body of literature on “meme stocks” and the impact of discussions on investment forums on intraday stock price movements.     

Predicting forecast errors through joint observation of earnings and revenue forecasts

We propose a simple method to infer the forecast error associated with quarterly estimates of earnings and revenue before the firm announces realized earnings and revenue. The method uses estimates of the profit margin implied by an analyst’s forecasts of both earnings and revenue to identify forecasts that are likely to be optimistic or pessimistic. The ability to anticipate forecast error permits a trading strategy that exploits the average market reaction following positive and negative earnings and revenue surprises.     

Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?

We use a novel data set to study return predictability in debt markets. The data are collected from J.P. Morgan’s periodic surveys on its clients’ outlook for changes in US Treasury yields and corporate credit spreads. We document that simple signals constructed from such surveys predict excess returns on debt portfolios formed on the basis of duration (2-years minus zero) or credit quality (BBB minus AAA). A linear trading strategy placing equal weight on Treasury and Credit signals has an annualized Information Ratio equal to 1.18, before transaction costs. We also show that predictability is likely to stem from private information possessed by survey respondents rather than from risk premia.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2020–2021

Challenging anticompetitive acquisitions of nascent competitors is a top priority of the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. It is especially important that competition agencies remain vigilant of such acquisitions in platform markets, where indirect network effects and other market forces tend to preserve the status quo at the expense of smaller, more innovative rivals and potentially final consumers. This article discusses two such attempted acquisitions: (1) Visa’s acquisition of technology firm Plaid that threatened to disrupt Visa’s monopoly power in online debit; and (2) Sabre’s acquisition of Farelogix, which is a firm that allows airlines to connect directly to travel agencies and thereby disintermediates Sabre and other global distribution systems.