Dividend Pricing Models and REITs

Dividend pricing/present value models relate current stock prices to expectations of future dividends. In this study we apply the West and Campbell–Shiller tests of the dividend pricing relation to an index of real estate investment trusts (REITs). REITs provide a unique test of these models since, during our study period, REITs were mandated to pay out at least 95% of taxable income as dividends. While our results complement previous research which finds that the dividend pricing model cannot be rejected if share repurchase is included as part of dividends, our data contain a much less significant amount of share repurchase, so that our approach to the issue of the viability of dividend pricing models offers an alternative insight. Our research suggests that, for our REIT population, dividend pricing models cannot be rejected.     

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered.     

Focusing the catastrophic illness debate.

Unlike other aspects of the American health experience, there is a current void of information on expensive illness experiences. This paper is designed to fill this void and prrsents an analysis of the incidence and cost of catastrophic illness in the United States. Catastrophic illness is defined as an illness episode for which a person incurs $5,000 or more of medical expenses in a calendar year. This information is used to provide a framework for focusing the debate about catastrophic and national health insurance.     

Arm - en - rijk oftewel: leren - de dommekracht onder de inkomenslift*

Summary This address deals with factors contributing to the inequality of income, with particular reference to the Netherlands and to the U.S.A. Sections 2 and 3 survey the shape of the income distribution curve, and the (possible) impact of the length of the reference period and of capital income on income variance. Section 4 shows the modest contribution of intergroup (compared with intra-group) differences in (mean) income, after classification of income recipients by occupation, age and sex. Special attention is paid to estimation of schooling and intelligence effects in multivariate analysis. All systematic factors taken together appear to account for less than 1/3 of the total income variance, so that a major part of it is still unexplained; mainly entrepreneurial income seems to be responsible for it. Finally, possible changes in income distribution - autonomous or resulting from policy measures -are discussed summarily.     

Streuungszerlegung für Paar-Vergleiche

Zusammenfassung Pl?ne für Paar-Vergleich Versuche werden gegeben und die Auswertung solcher Versuche wird beschrieben. Die Arbeit st?tzt sich auf das vonBock (1958) abge?nderte Modell vonThurstone undMosteller (1951a). Die Pl?ne sind so, da? sie zu unabh?ngig verteilten Fehlern führen. Zu ihrer Auswertung kann bedenkenlos die Streuungszerlegung angewendet werden. Die Konstruktion von ausgewogenen Pl?nen (allek(k−1)/2 m?glichen Paare werden verglichen) wird beschrieben und teilweise ausgewogene Pl?ne (nicht alle m?glichen Paare werden verglichen) für bis zu 10 Objekte sind tabelliert. Es wird gezeigt, da? die Auswertung solcher Versuche mit der Auswertung von Versuchen in unvollst?ndigen Bl?cken identisch ist. Zur leichteren Auswertung der teilweise ausgewogenen Versuche sind die Inversen der Koeffizientenmatrix der Normalgleichungen tabelliert. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel aus der Wollforschung wird durchgerechnet.

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Summary Designs for paired comparisons are given and their analysis is discussed. The paper is based onBock’s modification (1958) ofThurstone andMosteller’s (1951a) model. The designs lead to independently distributed errors and analysis of variance can be applied. The construction of balanced designs (in which allk(k−1)/2 possible comparisons are made) is described and partially balanced designs (in which not all possible comparisons are made) for up to 10 objects are tabulated. It is shown that the analysis of paired comparison experiments is identical to the analysis of incomplete block experiments. To simplify the analysis of the partially balanced designs the inverses of the matrices comprising the coefficients of the normal equations are tabulated. A worked example of application to a problem in wool research is given.

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Die Arbeit wurde im South African Wool Textile Research Institute, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, Südafrika, geschrieben.