Industry margins and the business cycle: Some new microeconomic evidence

Analysis of margin flexibility is an important item on the research agendas in macroeconomics and industrial economics. Using a new panel data set for U.S. manufacturing industries, we offer new evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of price-cost margins and on the concentration-margins debate in industrial organization.     

Does Environmental Protection Lead to Slower Productivity Growth in the Chemical Industry?

Efficiency and productivity growth is measured at the three-digit SIC level for six chemical industries for 1988–1993. The directional distance function is used to measure the lost chemical manufacturing output and the overproduction of toxic chemical releases. Total factor productivity growth is decomposed into a product of efficiency change and technical change. Accounting for toxic chemical releases, productivity grows at anannual rate of between 2.4% and 6.9%. We find no evidence that environmental protection measures reduce productivity growth.     

The Production of Eco-Labels

Eco-labeling is a market-based technique for conveying information about consumers’ demands for environmental protection. Most criticisms of eco-labeling have concentrated on demand-side issues – the potential for firms or countries to use eco-labels to manipulate market power – and the difficulty of creating credible labels. In this paper, we argue that fundamental problems also arise on the production side. Specifically, we argue that both increasing returns to scale and complexities in production imply that it will be possible to market only a small percentage of environmental attributes through the use of eco-labels. We present evidence for our hypotheses from a detailed survey of 100 randomly-selected consumer products.      

Liquidity of secondary capital markets: Allocative efficiency and the maturity composition of the capital stock

Summary We investigate the function of liquid financial markets for the allocation of productive capital. We consider an economy where agents endogenously choose among capital production technologies with differing gestation periods. Long-gestation capital investments must be rolled-over in secondary capital markets. The use of such investment technologies therefore requires the support of liquid financial markets. We investigate how changes in the liquidity of these markets (i.e., in the costs of transacting) affect (a) the choice of capital production technology, (b) per capita income and the per capita capital stock, (c) the level of financial market activity, (d) the real return on savings and (e) welfare in a steady state equilibrium. Improvements in financial market liquidity raise rates of return on savings, and favor the increased use of long gestation capital investments. However, such improvements may or may not lead to higher levels of real activity or steady state welfare. We describe conditions under which various outcomes occur.We have benefited from the comments of seminar participants at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the International Monetary Fund, Berkeley, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, Chicago, Illinois, Miami, UC San Diego, Simon Fraser, University of British Columbia, University of Washington, Yale, the Canadian Macro Study Group Meetings, the Murrary S. Johnson Conference (University of Texas/Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), and the Far West Rotating Economic Theory Conference. We would also like to thank John Bryant, Andreas Hornstein, Dan Peled, Bill Schworm, Karl Shell, Bart Taub and an anonymous referee for their comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Mutual fund managers: Does longevity imply expertise?

We analyze the performance of 1,042 mutual funds from 1986 to 1995 to measure the relationship between manager tenure and performance. Funds whose managers' have at least ten years tenure do not generate significantly higher excess returns than funds with less experienced managers. The excess returns of the best managers are not greater than those of their less experienced colleagues. Regardless of tenure, managers producing positive risk adjusted returns for three years are not likely to repeat their performance in subsequent periods. Our results provide further evidence that tenure should not be a factor in selecting mutual funds.     

Selection institutions and war aims

We explore how the sizes of the winning coalition and selectorate influence the war aims of states. Leaders who answer to a small winning coalition are more likely to seek territorial gain as a way to increase state resources. Nonterritorial war aims produce a commitment problem in that after the war the defeated state may not comply with the victor's demands. States with large winning coalitions are more willing to continue the war to remove the enemy leader as a solution to this commitment problem. We test our hypotheses against the Militarized Interstate Dispute data set, and we find some support for our argument. Received: June 2004, Accepted: April 2005, Correspondence to: James D. Morrow     

Credibility and Multiple SEOs: What Happens When Firms Return to the Capital Market?

Using a sample of firms that conducted multiple seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) from 1995 to 2012, we examine whether firms can build credibility for subsequent SEOs by following through on their stated use of the proceeds from earlier SEOs. We find that firms that state their intention to invest these funds in projects and those that make no such statements, but do invest have relatively more positive announcement returns around subsequent SEO announcements. Our results suggest that the markets are aware of the potential agency costs of equity, have a long memory, and update their beliefs as to the likely use of funds raised by firms.     

The determinants and survival of reverse mergers vs IPOs

This study examines the motivation for using a reverse merger (RM) rather than an IPO to take a private firm public and analyzes the survival of RMs and IPOs in the aftermarket. Private firms using the RM technique are smaller, younger, and have poorer ex ante performance on average than those using IPOs. For private firms using RMs, 1.4% do not meet any listing requirements while all IPOs meet at least one requirement of the listing exchange. Forty-two percent of RMs are delisted compared with 27% of matched IPOs within 3 years of listing on an exchange.