Labour disputes,investment decisions and the judiciary

In this article, we show that the presence of the judiciary in the background of labour relationships is not neutral within these relations: its potential intervention in case of an ex-post layoff and conflict over the severance payment can promote ex-ante efficient specific investment decisions. This ability to promote efficiency depends on the judiciary's aptitude to balance out the parties' ex-post bargaining powers. Interestingly one of the results shows that, if workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations is low, which implies that they expect low returns from continuing the relationships, an increase in the exogenous layoff probability should lead judges to be less lenient towards them.     

Fiscal Balance and Current Account in Professional Forecasts

This paper investigates the relationship between financial institutions' expectations of the current account and the fiscal balance. Using professional macroeconomic forecasts for the G‐7 countries, we find a positive relationship between forecasts of the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance deficit and forecasts of the current account deficit, indicating that professional forecasts embody links implied by the twin deficits hypothesis. In assessing the relationship between the forecasts of the fiscal deficit and the current account, we find that forecasters correctly make the distinction between the effect of fiscal policy and automatic stabilizers.     

Customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction in retail banking: Exploring the asymmetric impact of attribute performances

The paper presents the results of an extensive study on the determinants of customer satisfaction for a retail bank. In doing so, it uses a revised version of the traditional analyses based on derived measures of attribute importance. The need for a revised methodology is prompted by the insights of the two- and three-factor theories of customer satisfaction, such as Kano's framework. Indeed, the evidence from 5000 customers of a prominent Italian bank confirms a non-linear and asymmetric relationship between attribute performances and overall customer satisfaction. The results from both a traditional and our revised approach are compared. While this approach can be applied across different industries, it should not be assumed that the numerical results presented in the paper apply to contexts with substantially different underlying characteristics. General trends and implications for banking services are reported in the conclusions.     

Asset Prices and History: The Case of Austria

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. Looking at Austrian government bond prices traded on the Swiss stock exchange during WWII provides therefore a useful way of interpreting the importance the thousands of people directly and indirectly engaged in stock markets attributed to various war events. An econometric analysis of the relationship between government bond values and events in Austrian history reveals that some generally considered crucial events connected with WWII are clearly reflected in Austrian government bond prices. This holds, in particular for the beginning and the end of the war. The annexation of Austria by Germany in 1938 which seemingly looked as being overwhelmingly and passionately welcomed by the Austrian population negatively affected the evaluation of Austrian government bonds, i.e. it was considered to be to the disadvantage of Austria by the people who put their own personal fortune at risk.     

Induced innovation and land degradation: Results from a bioeconomic model of a village in West Africa

This paper introduces a modeling method which simulates a village's response to population and market pressure. The method combines a recursive and dynamic linear programming model with a biophysical model of soil condition and plant growth that predicts yields and land degradation for different type of land, land use and cropping patterns. The linear programming model simulates farmers' plans aggregated at the village level under constraints of risk aversion, food consumption, land area, soil fertility, soil depth, labor and cash availability. Detailed agroecological factors determine Ihe main processes of land degradation. A large number of technological alternatives, representing different degrees of labor and/or land-saving techniques available in the study areas, are introduced, taking into account their respective constraints, costs and advantages. The method has been calibrated for a village located in the sub-humid region of Burkina Faso. Several simulations are carried out to the Year 2030. The results show that population pressure leads to intensification and investment in land conservation practices out not necessarily to better farm incomes. Increasing market opportunities can play a more positive role in boosting productivity, but for the next decades the best way to increase production per farmer is to let farmers migrate from the high-population-density areas to the low-population-density areas because, under the current economic conditions of most Sahelian countries, intensification per hectare is stil more expensive than the fallow system.