Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities

The scenario literature has limited discussion on the process of identifying the systemic conditions that could create disruption and/or discontinuity. This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity. The framework is developed from a recent scenario case study to show the process of integrating these three theories and approaches. The case study reveals the systemic conditions inherent in the UK energy industry and how these conditions may portend discontinuity.     

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.     

Striking the Regulatory Balance in the Unique Case of the Voluntary Sector

This article considers the requirement for a regulatory regime for the UK voluntary sector that is sensitive to the unique features of the sector, while also maximizing public trust and safeguarding the interests of wider stakeholders. Regulatory Impact Assessments are important mechanisms in the achievement of this complex and delicate balance. However, these and other regulatory instruments need to be underpinned by a deep understanding of the voluntary sector 'persona', including and most particularly the voluntary ethos that is its core.     

Mean square error tests for restrictions in singular linear models

Weak and strong mean square error tests of restrictions presented in Wallace (1972) are generalized to apply to singular linear models. The singularity necessitates a slight change in the strong m.s.e. criterion and the requirement that the restrictions be estimable, but otherwise the tests are applied in a fashion analogous to the non-singular case. Use of those tests implies that the solution for the linear model parameter vector is contingent on a test result. The risk behavior of these contingent solutions is discussed.     

Below-cost legislation: lessons from the Republic of Ireland

This article traces the emergence, evolution and demise of below-cost legislation in the grocery industry in the Republic of Ireland. The article adds to our understanding of the legislation by adopting the view that, by using the net invoice price as its definition of cost, the legislation increased two streams of quasi-rents, first on suppliers' brands and second on retailers' own brands, which acted to depress competitive forces and direct supplier–buyer negotiations to off-invoice discounts. Supplier-generated quasi-rents financed discounts and, when coupled with retailers' higher margins on their own brands, provided little incentive for a return to a price-competitive environment. Two factors undermined this situation: the substitution of discounters' products for suppliers' brands as the discounters share of the market grew and the increase in cross-border shopping. These had the combined effect of reducing the available quasi-rents earned in the Irish market, resulting in the breakdown of the status quo and a return to price competition. Through its impact on negotiations, the legislation also introduced inefficiencies to both retailers' and suppliers' businesses, representing additional waste that could have been more productively used to reduce consumer prices. The article endorses the Government's decision to rescind the order and remove an important constraint on both vertical and horizontal competitions. Lessons from the Republic of Ireland suggest that the competitive response to the removal of below-cost legislation, and reductions in prices, may take time and will depend on economic circumstances and a change in the prevailing norms of organisational behaviour and quasi-rent seeking opportunities.     

Optimal Social Design: Estimating a Social Welfare Function from Questionnaire Data

A social design x evokes a response y from a set of individuals. The value of the design is expressed in terms of a social welfare function which is derived from Arrow’s formulation of social choice. Making certain simplifying assumptions the social welfare function can be expressed in terms of individuals’ ideal designs. A method for estimating the social welfare function from quite limited empirical evidence is developed. The method is applied to an educational case study. There was considerable variation in individuals’ ideal designs. The components of the social welfare were estimated: the welfare ideal, the population sensitivity, the population variation, the deviation from the ideal and the welfare ceiling. Methodological problems are discussed.     

INDIVIDUAL EQUITY RETURN DATA FROM THOMSON DATASTREAM: HANDLE WITH CARE!

We compare individual U.S. equity return data from Thomson Datastream (TDS) with similar data from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) to evaluate TDS for use in studies involving large numbers of individual equities in markets outside the United States. We document important issues of coverage, classification, and data integrity and find that naive use of TDS data can have a large impact on economic inferences. We show that after careful screening of the TDS data, inferences drawn from TDS data are similar to those drawn from CRSP. We illustrate the importance of the screens we develop using U.S. TDS data by applying the screens to TDS data from four European equity markets.     

Pricing structures for long-term international contracts

Devising a satisfactory commodity pricing mechanism for incorporation into a 20–25 year supplier-customer contract poses many challenges. The authors compare some advantages and drawbacks of possible mechanisms, drawing partly on a relevance tree approach.     

Trends in the internationalization of grocery retailing: the European experience

The three traditional views of retail internationalization involve the diffusion of retail concepts, operational involvement in foreign markets and the international- ization of a retail management function. None of these identified categories is new, but there is evidence that there is an unprecedented level of interest in internationalization as a viable strategic option for retailers. This paper examines these themes within die grocery sector in Europe, through an empirical investigation of activity in the post-war period.