Credit derivatives and loan pricing

This paper examines the relation between the new markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and banks’ pricing of syndicated loans to US corporates. We find that changes in CDS spreads have a significantly positive coefficient and explain about 25% of subsequent monthly changes in aggregate loan spreads during 2000–2005. Moreover, when compared to traditional explanatory factors, they turn out to be the dominant determinant of loan spreads. In particular, they explain loan rates much better than same rated bonds. This suggests that CDS prices contain, beyond general credit risk, to a substantial extent information relevant for bank lending. We also find that, over time, new information from CDS markets is faster incorporated into loans, but information from other markets is not. Overall, our results indicate that the markets for CDS have gained an important role for banks.     

International Risk Sharing and Government Moral Hazard

This paper analyzes incentive problems caused by international risk sharing. They arise because international risk sharing contributes to the insurance of domestic consumption and thus lowers governments’ incentives to increase output. We show that the resulting distortions can lead to substantial efficiency losses. Complete risk sharing is, therefore, undesirable and the optimal degree of risk sharing may be low. Furthermore, we show that households’ risk sharing decisions are socially inefficient and are effectively maximizing government moral hazard. As a result, financial innovation and integration may reduce welfare by increasing households’ risk sharing opportunities.

CFO Narcissism and Financial Reporting Quality

We investigate the effect of CFO narcissism, as measured by signature size, on financial reporting quality. Experimentally, we validate that narcissism predicts misreporting behavior, and that signature size predicts misreporting through its association with narcissism. Empirically, we examine notarized CFO signatures and find CFO narcissism is associated with more earnings management, less timely loss recognition, weaker internal control quality, and a higher probability of restatements. The results are consistent for within‐firm comparisons focusing on CFO changes and are robust to controlling for CFO overconfidence and CEO narcissism. The results highlight the importance of CFO characteristics in the domain of financial reporting decisions.     

Weekday variations in short-term contrarian profits in futures markets

This article documents and examines weekday patterns in short-term contrarian profits in futures markets. The Lo and Mackinlay (1990) methodology is used to construct contrarian portfolios and to compute daily contrarian profits. Contrarian portfolios are formed using daily closing prices and are based on the previous day's performance relative to a benchmark. Contrarian profits are measured over subsequent half-day intervals. The empirical results suggest that there are weekday patterns in short-term contrarian profits in futures markets. On average, contrarian profits are largest on Fridays, followed by those on Wednesdays, and smallest on Mondays. For currency futures, however, contrarian profits are largest on Mondays and smallest on Fridays.     

Subsampling inference for the mean in the heavy-tailed case

In this article, asymptotic inference for the mean of i.i.d. observations in the context of heavy-tailed distributions is discussed. While both the standard asymptotic method based on the normal approximation and Efron's bootstrap are inconsistent when the underlying distribution does not possess a second moment, we propose two approaches based on the subsampling idea of Politis and Romano (1994) which will give correct answers. The first approach uses the fact that the sample mean, properly standardized, will under some regularity conditions have a limiting stable distribution. The second approach consists of subsampling the usual t-statistic and is somewhat more general. A simulation study compares the small sample performance of the two methods. Received: December 1998     

Manufacturer Responsiveness to Consumer Correspondence: An Empirical Investigation of Consumer Perceptions

Although there is general agreement on the importance of the consumer correspondence handling function, specific steps businesses can take to satisfy consumers are relatively unexplored empirically. This study examines 300 consumers’ responses to actual manufacturers' letters addressing complaints and compliments. The discussion focuses on understanding the components of consumer satisfaction to manufacturers'responses and provides suggestions to businesses to increase that satisfaction level.     

Modellgestützte Bewertung des Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetzes 2016 anhand ausgewählter Anwendungsfälle in Wohngebäuden

Cogeneration is a promising technology in the energy transition amongst other things in view of its energy efficiency and its broad applicability in the household, tertiary and industry sectors. For the promotion of cogeneration technologies, support schemes are in place in German energy policy. Amongst other things the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Act serves as the main instrument for the promotion since 2002. In the new version of the CHP Act of 2016 the German Federal Government strives towards a more market-oriented design resulting in significant amendments featuring inter alia a highly case-dependent tariff design with modified levels and durations of remuneration. It is therefore the aim of the present study to assess these modifications with respect to technical, economic and ecological aspects in a model-based approach by means of selected use cases at different levels of spatial aggregation for residential buildings. Results point to an economic advantageousness for cases of the medium energy consumption level (streets and blocks of houses) under the new regime as well as the reversal of this attractiveness for objects of high consumption (neighbourhoods, districts). Particularly, CHP plants tend be dimensioned comparatively smaller with a greater number of full-load hours under the new regime. Furthermore, implications with regard to technical and ecological aspects are shown in this contribution.