SEVERITY OF ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS UNDER A BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT

This paper uses a vector autoregression model to estimate the role of fiscal and monetary policy stabilizers during the last four U.S. recessions. The data show that both types of stabilizers have had a large stabilizing effect. These results imply that adopting a balanced budget rule would increase greatly the severity of future recessions and require the Federal Reserve to respond much more strongly to economic fluctuations than is currently the case.     

Effect of information formats on information services: analysis of four selected agricultural commodities in the USA

We analyze sources of information in agricultural markets to understand patterns of demand for decision support services and the division of labor in the supply of these services. Information formatting—qualitative variation that determines accessibility and relevance of information in specific contexts—prohibits universal access to informational content. Information formats give rise to both transaction costs and complementarities reflected in patterns of information exchange in commodity systems. Controlling for actors' structural roles and levels of education, we develop a hedonic model of information demand such that actors seek information that is formatted to meet their needs and capabilities. Employing survey data, we explain elements of observed patterns of information exchange in four commodity systems in the USA. Results point to opportunities to expand our understanding of socioeconomic processes underlying production and consumption of decision support.     

Applying public participation GIS (PPGIS) to inform and manage visitor conflict along multi-use trails

Managing visitor conflict is an important task in protected areas. This study used public participation GIS (PPGIS) mapping and a visitor survey to research conflicts between mountain bikers and horse riders, and other groups frequenting trails for tourism and recreation in national parks in northern Sydney (Australia). The goal was to evaluate the effectiveness of the PPGIS for determining conflict locations, and to integrate stated reasons and conflict resolution measures in a model. The survey showed that 42% of mountain bikers and 69% of horse riders had experienced conflicts, with each other, motorbike riders, walkers/hikers and dog walkers. PPGIS effectively mapped concurrent usage intensity to predict potential conflict locations over a reasonably large study area thereby identifying trails of the greatest concern. PPGIS also offered high-quality GIS visualisation options, and the novelty of the PPGIS increased participant engagement. We evaluated PPGIS compared to questionnaire-based surveying, direct visitor observations, GPS tracking, traffic counters and cameras. Because visitor conflict occurs within a spatial context, conflict management will require greater spatial knowledge of visitor activity, which can be obtained through the innovative PPGIS mapping. A conflict model is presented that integrates this study's empirical findings on conflict reasons and resolutions with existing conflict theory.     

Weak monotonicity and Bayes–Nash incentive compatibility

An allocation rule is called Bayes–Nash incentive compatible, if there exists a payment rule, such that truthful reports of agents' types form a Bayes–Nash equilibrium in the direct revelation mechanism consisting of the allocation rule and the payment rule. This paper provides a characterization of Bayes–Nash incentive compatible allocation rules in social choice settings where agents have multi-dimensional types, quasi-linear utility functions and interdependent valuations. The characterization is derived by constructing complete directed graphs on agents' type spaces with cost of manipulation as lengths of edges. Weak monotonicity of the allocation rule corresponds to the condition that all 2-cycles in these graphs have non-negative length. For the case that type spaces are convex and the valuation for each outcome is a linear function in the agent's type, we show that weak monotonicity of the allocation rule together with an integrability condition is a necessary and sufficient condition for Bayes–Nash incentive compatibility.     

EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION: THE WORMS IN THE APPLE

Expansion of higher education can undermine rather than enhance the value of education for low income families. Less well qualified children of higher income families are the main beneficiaries of the expansion and the value of the qualifications of those who do not participate in higher education can be undermined. The most obvious practical policy that would expand educational opportunity for all would be to treat all adult students equally and give further education institutions and universities comparable, as well as greater, freedom from government control.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Mark A. Lause, Young America: Land, Labor, and the Republican Community.
Jesse C. Ribot, Waiting for Democracy: The Politics of Choice in Natural Resource Decentralisation.
Jesse C. Ribot and Anne M. Larson (eds.), Democratic Decentralisation through a Natural Resource Lens.
David Keen, Conflict and Collusion in Sierra Leone.
Costas Lapavitsas, Social Foundations of Markets, Money and Credit.
Ricardo Salvatore, Wandering Paysanos: State Order and Subaltern Experience in Buenos Aires during the Rosas Era.
Colin Murray and Peter Sanders, Medicine Murder in Colonial Lesotho: The Anatomy of a Moral Crisis.     

A Schumpeterian North–South Growth Model of Trade and Wage Inequality*

The paper presents a dynamic general‐equilibrium model of interindustry North–South trade that is used to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on the Northern wage distribution. Both countries have a low‐tech sector where consumer goods of constant quality are produced by use of unskilled labor. The North also has a high‐tech sector that employs skilled labor and features a quality‐ladder model structure with endogenous growth. Both innovation and skill acquisition rates are endogenously determined. In a balanced trade equilibrium, it is found that Southern‐originated (Northern‐originated) trade liberalization leads to an increase (decrease) in Northern wage inequality both between skilled and unskilled workers and within the group of skilled workers. The endogenous change in the Southern terms of trade determines the direction of change in unskilled wages in both the North and the South.     

Macro Credit Policy and the Financial Accelerator

This paper studies macro credit policies within the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). The focus is on borrower‐based restrictions on lending such as loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratios. We find that the efficacy of cyclical taxes on LTV ratios depends upon the nature of the underlying loan contract. If the loan contract contains equity‐like features such as indexation to aggregate conditions, then there is little role for cyclical taxation. But if the loan contract is not indexed to aggregate conditions, then there are substantial gains to procyclical taxes on LTV ratios.     

Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle

Using error‐free data on life‐cycle portfolio allocations of a large sample of Norwegian households, we document a double adjustment as households age: a rebalancing of the portfolio composition away from stocks as they approach retirement and stock market exit after retirement. When structurally estimating an extended life‐cycle model, the parameter combination that best fits the data is one with a relatively large risk aversion, a small per‐period participation cost, and a yearly probability of a large stock market loss in line with the frequency of stock market crashes in Norway.