Futures Markets and Informational Efficiency: A Laboratory Examination

Through the use of laboratory market methodology, the effect of a futures market on the time path of asset prices is studied and competing models of asset pricing are analyzed. With replication of market conditions, the predictions of a rational expectations equilibrium model are relatively accurate whether or not futures markets are present. However, the presence of futures markets increases the speed with which an efficient equilibrium is achieved. While this more rapid adjustment can increase the variance of spot market prices as they move to equilibrium, this increased variance reflects efficiency gains due to better information.     

Understanding Adoption of Livestock Health Management Practices: The Case of Bovine Leukosis Virus

Herd-level livestock health management decisions have implications for farm profitability and the potential public impact of a livestock disease outbreak. Thus, adoption of health management practices is of interest to government officials concerned with managing the risk of disease outbreak and controlling the spread of infection. This paper uses a fractional logit model to estimate the disease risk reduction for livestock health management practices on farms, and then uses the economic benefits of these risk reductions as explanatory variables in an econometric model of adoption of these practices. We find that the economic damages from disease associated with a particular practice are statistically significant but ultimately of little practical economic importance in adoption decisions. Implications for policy and relation to prior research findings are discussed. Les décisions entourant la gestion sanitaire du troupeau ont des répercussions sur la rentabilité des fermes et sur l'impact qu'une éclosion de maladies animales pourrait avoir sur la population. Par conséquent, l'adoption de pratiques de gestion sanitaire intéresse les représentants du gouvernement soucieux de gérer le risque d'éclosion de maladies et de maîtriser la propagation d'une infection. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle logit fractionnaire pour estimer la diminution du risque de maladies lorsque des pratiques de gestion sanitaire du troupeau sont adoptées à la ferme et nous avons ensuite utilisé les avantages économiques de cette diminution du risque comme variables explicatives dans un modèle économétrique d'adoption de ces pratiques. Les résultats ont montré que les dommages économiques liés aux maladies associées à une pratique en particulier sont statistiquement significatifs, mais qu'ils sont finalement sans importance économique dans les décisions d'adoption. Nous avons examiné les répercussions sur la politique agricole et avons fait le lien avec des résultats de recherche antérieurs.     

The Effects of Labour on Accounting Choice in Canada

This study examines the effects of labour considerations on accounting choice in Canada. Two potential labour‐related incentives are considered: ability to pay and employee attraction and retention. Measures of these incentives are developed based on Canadian data: unionization for ability‐to‐pay incentives, and labour intensity and the percentage of white‐collar employees for the attract and retain incentives. Our results indicate that ability‐to‐pay incentives, measured by unionization, are not associated with depreciation policies in Canada. In contrast, the findings provide mixed support for the attract‐and‐retain perspective, because labour intensity was significantly correlated with these choices, while the percentage of white‐collar employees was marginally significant.     

Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements

Using a database of more than 1.85 million retail investor transactions over 1991–1996, we show that these trades are systematically correlated—that is, individuals buy (or sell) stocks in concert. Moreover, consistent with noise trader models, we find that systematic retail trading explains return comovements for stocks with high retail concentration (i.e., small‐cap, value, lower institutional ownership, and lower‐priced stocks), especially if these stocks are also costly to arbitrage. Macroeconomic news and analyst earnings forecast revisions do not explain these results. Collectively, our findings support a role for investor sentiment in the formation of returns.     

An Analysis of the Theories and Explanations Offered for the Mispricing of Accruals and Accrual Components

Numerous accounting studies claim that investors fail to rationally price accrual‐related information and that investors are functionally fixated. This study documents the importance of performing robustness tests when testing economic or behavioral explanations for apparent accounting‐related security mispricing. We find that performing robustness tests that exclude a small number of firm‐year observations (approximately 200 firm‐year observations or about 1% of the entire sample) reveals an inverted U‐shaped relation between buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns and total accruals. An inverted U‐shaped relation is inconsistent with the functional fixation (earnings fixation) hypothesis. We conduct similar robustness tests for the abnormal accrual anomaly and the net operating assets anomaly proposed by other investigators, and also find an inverted U‐shaped relation between buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns and abnormal accruals and net operating assets. These findings are inconsistent with the explanations put forth by those investigators. Such evidence leads us to conclude that the accrual‐related anomalies are unlikely to be due to investors' inability to process accounting information, as suggested by the functional fixation hypotheses tested.     

On the conversion of ruble trade flows into dollars

A simple approach is developed for analyzing the possible bias involved in converting CMEA countries' statistics on transferable ruble (TR) trade into dollars. This bias is a function of the degree of price distortion in TR trade and whether the conversion is made “backward” using the TR/dollar rate set by the CMEA, or “forward” using the country's official cross rate between the TR and the dollar. Illustrative calculations of conversion bias for the European members of the CMEA for 1983 show considerable differences in “forward” conversion bias among some of these countries, given identical hypothetical price distortions in each country's TR trade.