Marktanalyse en markttheorie

Summary The introduction of expectations in market theory has increased its dynamic nature and realism. It is argued that only the incorporation of historical time in the theory will suggest the market development patterns needed by analysts. Dynamic market theory can usefully be based on the development stages of the product cycle. The scope of such a theory is much wider than is currently acknowledged. It comprises entrepreneurial theory, the theory of profits, competition and industrial change, and provides the building blocks of a theory of international business. The application of methods of analysis in the various stages of market development is mentioned.

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Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van lector in de bedrijfshuishoudkunde aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam op 27 april 1971. Prof. Dr. P. Hennipman heeft door zijn critische opmerkingen wezenlijk bijgedragen tot de formulering en nuancering van het gegeven betoog.     

POWER SUPPLY EXPANSION AND THE NUCLEAR OPTION IN POLAND

This paper describes the construction of a data set of the Polish power sector for use with the Elfin capacity expansion planning model. Using Elfin, the paper derives four scenarios and some sensitivities for new generating capacity construction plans. These scenarios simulate choices among several generic generating technologies made to achieve the lowest overall net present cost of operating the power system through 2015. Key results include: (i) single-cycle natural gas-fired combustion turbines prove highly attractive for Poland because of its urgent need for peaking capacity, (ii) nuclear power cannot be excluded from consideration for Poland on economic grounds alone, (iii) the effectiveness of conservation to reduce airborne emissions is limited under scenarios in which nuclear generation is adopted, and (iv) the attractiveness of nuclear is shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions on some uncertain inputs, suggesting the need for a more detailed analysis before policy implications can be drawn.     

Do PCAOB Inspections Improve the Accuracy of Accounting Estimates?

Despite issuing extensive guidance related to the evaluation of accounting estimates, the PCAOB continues to identify deficiencies related to the audit of estimates through their inspections process. We examine whether PCAOB inspections lead to more accurate audited accounting estimates, defined as those that more closely match economic reality, by examining a significant estimate within the banking industry. We find that in contrast with the PCAOB's goal of more accurate and unbiased estimates, allowance for loan losses (ALL) estimates become less accurate and more conservative with higher levels of ALL‐related inspection findings for public company audits. We find no evidence of auditor response to PCAOB inspection findings for private‐company audits, which are not subject to PCAOB inspection. Overall, our findings cast doubt on the efficacy of PCAOB inspections in improving estimate accuracy and suggest that firms are managing inspection risk to the potential detriment of audit quality.     

(NON‐)RESILIENCY OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES DURING THE 2007–2009 FINANCIAL CRISIS

We study the contraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non‐resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the economies in which the flows originate. To formally study the effects of external financial conditions on FDI in the United States, we exploit the three dimensions of a panel of US inward FDI flows organized by recipient US industries, source countries and years for the recorded flows. Changes in the cost of finance in the source countries have little or no effect on total inward flows (the sum of equity, debt and reinvested earnings) over the 2006–2010 period. However, US industries characterized by more financial vulnerability experience statistically significant variations in the debt and equity components of inward FDI flows in response to the changes in the cost of capital that occurred in the source countries during the crisis.     

Marriage seasonality and the industrious revolution: southern Sweden, 1690–18951

In this article we study the evolution of marriage seasonality in relation to economic change, particularly connected to changes in labour supply and work intensity of the kind implied by the ‘industrious revolution’. The focus is on southern Sweden in 1685–1894, which was a period of agricultural transformation and early industrialization, when we would expect to see an increase in work intensity. The analysis is based on about 120,000 marriages from 117 different parishes. The analysis shows that the seasonality of marriage changed dramatically over time, from a classic grain production pattern, with a marriage peak in late spring and a marriage trough at harvest time, to a much more even seasonality, although with the appearance of a very strong peak in December. This change affected rural rather than urban areas, and was present regardless of differences in institutional settings, and for almost all occupational groups below the elite. The changed seasonality pattern is consistent with increasing work intensity over the year, leaving only the weeks around Christmas as a low season. In addition to the increase in work intensity, the privatization of marriage and the availability of time and resources were also important factors in the changing seasonality pattern.     

Electronic temperature control in electric ovens for increased accuracy in food research

In food research, temperature is one of the variables that must be controlled at all times; household electric ovens are often used for this purpose. The aim of this study was to determine whether an electronic temperature controller (ETC) – an electronic apparatus with a solid-state switch and sensitive sensor – can provide improved temperature control, and consequently sustained food quality, compared with a capillary thermostat in a household electric oven. It was found that the ETC is indeed able to provide better temperature control in household electric ovens. It can, therefore, make a valuable contribution to food research, where consistency during replication is vital for the reliability of research results.