信任、利率与农村金融市场竞合关系——中国农村小额信贷市场的理论模型

本文立足于孟加拉格莱闵银行(GB模式)小额信贷运作的理念和原理建立小额信贷市场一般模型,并衍生出中国农村小额信贷市场的理论模型及其扩展模型,通过模型分析,认为信任在小额信贷市场中扮演了重要角色,农村信用社、微型金融组织(MFI)、非政府组织(NGO)等信任不同收入水平的农户群体,农村信用社行政性低贷款利率难以覆盖小额信贷业务的经营成本和贷款风险,并导致"市场挤出MFI(NGO)"现象发生,影响了农村小额信贷市场上MFI、NGO、农村信用社、民间借贷等的公平竞争和有效合作,据此提出相应的对策。     

Equity and efficiency considerations in area versus individual yield insurance

Equity and efficiency considerations in area versus individual crop insurance are investigated for 609 Ontario cash crop farms. Results show that the relationship between individual and area premiums and risk reduction are explained by systematic and non-systematic yield risk relationships. On average, area insurance premiums are much lower than individual yield insurance premiums, and in terms of efficiency in risk-reduction individual plans are superior to area plans. As it turns out arguments of asymmetric information which has lead some researchers to investigate area vs. individual yield insurance is not totally resolved. Inequities in the benefits of area plans across farmers are not equitably distributed, favouring high-risk producers. Adverse selection causes instability in the pooled contracts which will ultimately cause area insurance plans to fail.     

Regulatory Uncertainty and Financial Contagion: Evidence from the Hybrid Capital Securities Market

This paper examines the negative market impact that resulted from the insurance regulators’ potential reclassification of 140 hybrid capital securities in spring and summer 2006. It illustrates how financial contagion can spring from a regulatory policy change that lacks transparency. We investigate the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the regulators’ true classification criteria by measuring the effect of the reclassification announcements on hybrid new issue volume, cumulative average abnormal returns, bid‐ask spreads, and yield spreads. The financial contagion adversely affected the entire hybrid capital securities market for six months. The effect was most pronounced among those hybrids that were eventually reclassified as common equity equivalents. It was greater for Yankee Tier 1 hybrids, which had been more popular with insurance firm investors prior to the reclassifications, than among non‐Tier 1 hybrids.     

The multi-national corporations: Considerations for a scenario

Although multi-national corporations have been one of the main customers for future-oriented activities such as technological forecasting, precious little attention has been paid to their development either in the work of the so-called establishment futurists or in the work of their more ‘radical’ colleagues. It is argued that these companies will be increasingly free of control at the international level though under greater scrutiny at the national level. It is likely that they will become increasingly intertwined with both national and international governing bodies, and be seen as arms of these governing bodies rather than as the traditional profit-maximising organisations.