Assimilating earnings and split information: Is the capital market becoming more efficient?

Recent studies have implied that the capital market has become more efficient with respect to the announcements of stock splits and corporate earnings. This study calculated residual returns associated with these announcements and then tested, by time period (early and late years), for a between period difference. The results suggest that for certain earnings and split announcements the market is no more efficient than it has been in the past.     

From skyhooks to walking sticks: on the road to nonrational decision making

The amount of information that should be processed to reach a rational solution is so vast that it overwhelms our limited memory and analytic capacity. To grapple at all with real problems, we must shrink them to mind size. As Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon has suggested, we must learn to "satisfice." Using examples and a case history of managerial succession, Agnew and Brown demonstrate the importance of nonrational factors in decision making. "Skyhooks," their first major concept, are composed of an individual's strong beliefs and biases that appear almost as acts of faith without any obvious foundation. They help the exceptional executive operate on a limited set of alternatives. But while skyhooks give direction, they do not provide the means to reach a destination. Simpler conceptual models, or "walking sticks," are necessary to cover the rocky trails. Agnew and Brown offer four walking sticks that can be applied to managerial succession problems. The first walking stick considers executive decision making in three parts--nonrational, semirational, and rational--and covers the conditions in which each component comes into play. The second helps examine human resources as fixed or fluid and as assets or liabilities to develop a schema for manpower accounting in executive succession. Playing vs. talking a good executive game is the topic for walking stick three. The concern here is to distinguish the real players--who can manage systems--from the mere talkers, who can manage only fragments of systems. The fourth walking stick draws on the law of resource gravitation and crystallization, a law with implications for trainers: You can't fashion management training to fit all comers; instead, you must tailor it to what the trainees already are and know.     

The law and job design: comments on recent Norwegian legislation

A primary concern of those interested in the quality of working life has been with the design of jobs. In this article the authors review the reasons why job design reform has not generally attracted the interest of lawmakers. One notable exception is Norway, and this article reports the findings of a survey into the effects of the most recent law—the Work Environment Act of 1977.     

A NOTE ON CORPORATE INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND OPTION PRICING

Using the Black-Scholes option pricing model, numerical examples are given which illustrate the known fact that shareholders in a levered firm might reject investments which are profitable for the company as a whole and accept investments which are unprofitable for the company as a whole. Even the assumption that side-payments are allowed can be inadequate to handle a possible succession of unprofitable projects which are acceptable to shareholders. However, existing company law attempts to provide a solution procedure. The analysis helps to explain why such law has been thought necessary.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

COGNITIVE MAPPING AND REPERTORY GRIDS FOR QUALITATIVE SURVEY RESEARCH: SOME COMPARATIVE OBSERVATIONS

A study of business strategy was carried out in 86 organizations in the crop protection industry. A multi-operational approach was used to enable validation of data by triangulation, including cognitive mapping used in an unusual way. This provided an unintended opportunity to conduct a comparative evaluation of interactive investigational methods in a relatively controlled, if unsophisticated manner. Results were interesting enough to suggest that further investigation is needed into the impact of various subject-generated factors such as face validity on methodological effectivness, as well as more traditional criteria such as construct validity of particular methods. Accordingly, process issues affecting repertory grids, cognitive mapping and software for the analysis of cognitive maps (COPE) are described and discussed. Recommendations are made for improvements to mapping and software and further studies suggested.     

Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Ratio Analysis in the Analytical Review Process

Experts claim that artificial neural network (ANN) technology can outperform standard statistical methods when applied to examine actual financial data. Researchers have used ANNs to analyze bankruptcy prediction, bond rating and the going-concern problem. Financial firms have employed ANNs commercially to predict commercial bank failures, detect credit card fraud and verify signatures. For accounting and auditing problems, however, application of ANN technology has been limited. Preliminary experiments tested whether an ANN offered improved performance in recognizing material misstatements during the analytical review process of auditing. Four years of audited financial data from a medium-sized distributor were input as data streams to calibrate the ANN across fifteen financial accounts. Researchers compared a presumed lack of actual errors and certain seeded material errors with signals from the ANN analytical review process to evaluate performance. Results were compared to analyses where financial ratios and regression methods were employed as analytical review techniques. Results tentatively suggest that the ANN method recognized patterns within financial accounts more effectively than did financial ratio and regression methods. ANNs applied as a forecasting tool seem useful for identifying patterns that can indicate potential investigations of a firm's unaudited financial data in the current year.