以科学发展观指导区域经济发展——关于加快北部湾(广西)经济区开放开发的思考

加快北部湾(广西)经济区开放开发是广西加快发展的必然选择。要从经济全球化视野来审视广西发展,从国家区域经济发展大局来把握广西定位,从抓住国内外产业转移的契机来考虑区域生产力布局,准确把握北部湾(广西)经济区的内涵和外延,并积极进行改革创新,努力实现协调发展,有效追求后劲持续,全面建设富裕广西,以体现科学发展观的内在要求。     

浅谈当前我国金融市场运行面临的主要问题

固定资产投资增长过快、货币信贷投放过多、国际收支不平衡,是我国经济运行中一直存在的突出矛盾.当前,国内外经济环境变化的不确定性因素和潜在风险正在增加:美国次贷危机影响仍在扩大、国内通账压力持续增加、证券市场开始出现不景气等诸多"不确定性"因素,都可能直接影响我国经济的稳定和金融市场的健康发展.今年以来,我国在受到高油价、美国次贷危机影响和世界经济整体减缓的同时,出现了历年罕见的出口增速放缓以及全国规模以上工业企业增加值和实现利润的增速同比降低的经济现象;而我国长期的经常项目和资本与金融项目的"双顺差"也已经表现为经济的外部失衡;加上当前我国国内通胀压力居高不下,证券市场连续下挫导致了整个金融市场的内部失衡,我国的经济发展正面临着复杂的局面和严峻考验.本文通过对当前形势下我国金融市场面临的内部经济和外部经济"双失衡"的局面进行分析,试图寻找出适应当前形势的、切实可行的对策,以期能对促进我国金融市场的健康稳健发展有所裨益.     

事故致因R-t图初探

依据当前事故成因特点,通过对诸多典型事故发生的本质原因进行分折和提炼后,提出了以横坐标为时间轴(t),纵坐标为系统状态或危险度(R)值的事故致因R-t图。该图动态反映了事故发生机理,可从理论上为分析事故原因、预测预防事故和改进安全管理工作提供科学的、指导性的借鉴和依据。     

老工业城市经济发展与环境污染关系研究——以株洲市为例

研究老工业城市经济发展与环境污染的关系,对其实现可持续发展有着十分重要的意义.本文根据株洲市近十年的经济与环境数据,建立了株洲市经济发展与环境污染关系的计量模型,然后用origin软件对其进行曲线模拟.结果发现二者的关系出现了四种情况:倒U型关系、同步关系、U型关系和反N型关系,文中对这四种关系分别作出了解释.研究表明,大部分大气环境质量指标和固体废弃物排放指标与人均GDP的关系曲线呈现倒U型,这主要是近年来积极的环境保护政策、不断扩大的环保投资以及环保技术升级的共同结果.同时,二氧化硫排放量和大部分水污染指标随着经济的增长有恶化或是波动的趋势,这就要求株洲市政府必须调整产业结构和能源结构,有针对性地扩大环保投资,加大环保力度,以实现经济和社会的可持续发展.     

Pricing of Defaultable Bonds with Log-Normal Spread: Development of the Model and an Application to Argentinean and Brazilian Bonds During the Argentine Crisis

In this paper we describe a two-factor model for a defaultable discount bond, assuming log-normal dynamics with bounded volatility for the instantaneous short rate spread. Under some simplified hypothesis, we obtain an explicit barrier-type solution for zero recovery and constant recovery. We also present a numerical application for Argentinean and Brazilian Sovereign Bonds during the default crisis of Argentina.JEL Classification: G 13     

乡镇企业技术创新存在的问题与对策研究

技术创新是乡镇企业面向未来积极参与国内外市场竞争和实现可持续发展的必然的战略选择。为了搞好技术创新，乡镇企业必须针对自身的缺陷和存在的问题，强化技术创新主体意识，独立或联合创办技术创新机构，创建高素质的技术创新队伍，加大技术创新投入，加强技术创新过程管理，建立健全技术创新动力机制和产权激励机制等。     

企业集群的生态学研究

当前企业集群产生的巨大经济效益吸引人们对其的研究方兴未艾。本文介绍了企业集群的生态学研究进展，比较了企业集群行为与生物群聚行为的相似性，如聚集、竞争与合作并存、互惠互利，分析了企业集群的优势，如通过分工获得比较优势、降低交易费用、产生市场的集聚效应、相互学习的协同效应。比较了企业集群与生物群落的相似性，得出企业集群是由企业构成的比生物群落更加复杂的生态系统的结论，为生态学理论在企业集群研究上的应用提供了依据。     

The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey

In this study, we assess empirically whether consumer confidence indices contain information about future private consumption growth in Turkey. To this end, we estimate models for quarterly total, durable, and nondurable consumption growth with and without sentiment indicators. We evaluate in-sample forecasts and one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. We also test permanent income and precautionary savings hypotheses with our results. We use overall indices of CNBC-e and Turkstat-CBRT Surveys, and Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) and Propensity to Consume Index (PCI) from the CNBC-e Survey as sentiment measures. We show that the lagged values of consumer sentiment have explanatory power on consumption growth. However, when used in conjunction with other economic variables such as real labor income, real stock price, real interest rate, and exchange rate, only CNBC-e for total consumption, and CBRT and PCI for nondurable consumption provide independent information about future consumption growth. Similarly, the gains in out-of-sample forecasts are observed under the absence of other variables and disappear in almost all cases following their inclusion to the estimations. Finally, we find no clear evidence for either precautionary savings motive or permanent income hypothesis on the link between consumer sentiment and future total consumption changes.     

Degree of Integration Between Brent Oil Spot and Futures Markets: Intraday Evidence

We investigate the integration of oil spot and futures markets using matched, intraday data to avoid nonsynchronous trading issues. Our evidence indicates highly integrated spot and futures markets. Economic shocks that arise in spot markets are quickly transmitted to the futures markets approximately one-for-one. Most of the reaction occurs within minutes. Similarly, economic shocks arriving in futures markets are transmitted to spot markets one-for-one, once again, within minutes consistent with market efficiency. In general, our findings indicate well-functioning, well-integrated spot and futures oil markets that are informationally efficient and that perform the functions of both price discovery and risk transfer. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first article to work with precisely matched customized data in futures markets, specifically oil futures markets.     

智力资本对双元创新协同性的影响:高管团队行为整合的调节作用

首次探讨了智力资本与双元创新协同性(包括双元创新平衡性与双元创新互补性两个维度)之间的因果关系,以及高管团队行为整合对该关系的调节作用,提出了相关研究假设并建立了关系模型,通过问卷调查和统计分析对上述研究假设和关系模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,智力资本及其3个维度(人力资本、组织资本和社会资本)均与双元创新平衡性正相关。其中,人力资本和社会资本均与双元创新互补性正相关;智力资本与双元创新协同性及其两个维度(双元创新平衡性和双元创新互补性)均正相关;高管团队行为整合在智力资本与双元创新平衡性、双元创性互补性以及双元创新协同性间均发挥正向调节作用。