FROM INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES TO SUPPLY-AND-USE TABLES

In 1991, Statistics Netherlands introduced the supply-and-use tables as part of the national accounts. Since then, the supply-and-use tables have been the main statistics on the production structure of the Dutch economy. They form the basis from which input–output tables are derived. The time series of supply-and-use tables starts in 1987. However, there is a need for a time series since 1970 because benchmark revisions of the Dutch national accounts would become far easier if such time series were available. Therefore, a method has been developed to derive supply-and-use tables from existing input–output tables. This article presents the algorithm.     

Stochastic models of resonating markets

This paper describes a way to model a seasonally and irregularly peaking price dynamics, as that originated in commodity and energy markets, using a system of coupled nonlinear stochastic differential equations. The specific case of an electric power market is used to show which microeconomic features this approach is able to model. Critical point analysis is used in a simple way to show how the interaction between dynamic criticality and stochasticity can be used to develop further models, useful to explore more deeply other types of peaking price dynamics.     

Valuing Climate Change Effects Upon UK Agricultural GHG Emissions: Spatial Analysis of a Regulating Ecosystem Service

This article provides estimates of the physical and economic value of changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projected to arise from climate change induced shifts in UK agricultural land use during the period 2004–2060. In physical terms, significant regional differences are predicted with the intensity of agricultural GHG emissions increasing in the upland north and western parts of the UK and decreasing in the lowland south and east of the country. Overall these imply relative modest increases in the physical quantity of emissions. However, rapid rises in the expected marginal value of such emissions translate these trends into major increases in their economic costs over the period considered.     

Labor market intermediaries make the world smaller

This paper uses network analysis to study how employment intermediaries have influenced inter-firm worker mobility in a region of Italy, in response to a 1997 reform that introduced temporary employment agencies. Worker reallocations from a matched employer-employee dataset are mapped onto a directed graph where the vertices are firms and the links denote transfers of workers between firms. Temporary employment agencies significantly improve network integration and practicability, while rapidly increasing the control over mobility channels. The trade off inherent in intermediation activity is captured and discussed. The potential of network analysis as a tool for monitoring regional labor markets is highlighted.     

The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model

The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by [Deaton and Laroque, 1992], [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996]. Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996] model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model.     

Causal Effect of Credit Guarantees for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Italy

We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program, implemented in a large Italian region, that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises. Using unique microdata from a broad set of firms, we show that the policy increased the long-term loans for beneficiary firms, while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected. Furthermore, targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates. However, there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment. Conversely, the results do not point to any significant effect on investments.     

Endogenous Minimum Participation in International Environmental Treaties

Many international treaties come into force only after a minimum number of countries have signed and ratified the treaty. Minimum participation constraints are particularly frequent in the case of environmental treaties dealing with global commons, where free-riding incentives are strong. Why do countries that know they have an incentive to free-ride accept to “tie their hands” through the introduction of a minimum participation constraint? This article addresses the above issues by modeling the formation of an international treaty as a three-stage non-cooperative coalition formation game. Both the equilibrium minimum participation constraint and the number of signatories—the coalition size—are determined. This article, by showing that a non-trivial partial coalition, sustained by a binding minimum participation constraint, forms at the equilibrium, explains the occurrence of minimum participation clauses in most international environmental agreements. It also analyses the endogenous equilibrium size of the minimum participation constraint.     

Single factor models with Markovian spot interest rate: an analytical treatment

In the spirit of the Heath–Jarrow–Morton methodology, we provide an analytical characterization of bond prices within the context of single factor term structure models in which the spot rate follows a Markov process and the volatility structure of zero coupon bond returns is stochastic. Also, a perturbative analysis of the extended Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model is proposed. Received: 7 February 2001 / Accepted: 8 June 2002     

Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations

The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations can accurately predict yields, but they are typically not available for all maturities and/or forecast horizons. We show how survey expectations can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible exponential tilting method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations, and we develop a test to guide the choice of the anchoring points. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to—such as information about the current state of the economy or forward‐looking information contained in monetary policy announcements—without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates.