The Role of Comprehensive Income as Financial Performance Predictor： Panel Evidence From Italy

The aim of this study is to investigate whether the comprehensive income （CI） and its individual components are useful in assessing the future cash flows for Italian listed companies. In addition, we verify whether the recent requirement of International Accounting Standard （IAS） 1 （r2011） of providing the other comprehensive income （OCI） separates in two sub-totals （recycling and non-recycling items groups） is useful to explain the expected cash flows. We consider a sample of 121 Italian non-financial companies listed on the Italian Stock Exchange for the testing period of 2008-2011, employing a fixed-effect regression model, and we test the relationship between the changes in the variables considered and not the relative absolute value reducing, in this way, the risk of not grasping a report if the independent variable and the response variable do not have the same sign. Our results stress that CI and the two new sub-aggregates are not relevant to explain future cash flows, while net income （NI） and OC1 as a whole seem to be more relevant to make explicit the future financial position. The study contributes, as a sort of post-implementation review, to the current debate on the ability of Cl to predict the future cash flows and on the real usefulness of the CI and the sub-aggregate identified by the IAS 1 revised as well.     

Capital–skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of Social Security Reform

This paper analyses the general equilibrium implications of reforming pay-as-you-go pension systems in an economy with heterogeneous agents, human capital investment and capital–skill complementarity. It shows that increasing funding, by raising savings, delivers in the long run higher physical and human capital and therefore higher output, but also higher across-group wage and income inequality. It also shows that the general equilibrium effects induced by this reform affect groups' sizes in a way that the higher across-group inequality generated by more funding goes with a larger share of the population against redistribution.     

Distributional Effects of Price Reforms in the Italian Utility Markets*

In this paper, we analyse some distributional effects of the reforms to water and energy services in Italy. We first document the new regulation setting in these services, illustrating the dynamics of utility prices and of household expenditure in the period 1998‐2005. We then propose a way to measure the affordability of public utilities, in order to investigate how many households would incur a potentially excessive burden if they consumed a minimum quantity of utility services. Finally, we calculate this index on data from the Survey on Family Budgets (Indagine sui consumi delle famiglie). Our results show how the affordability of utility bills varies from region to region depending on climate, income, family endowment and family size. The analysis ‐ also based on a counterfactual exercise ‐ finds that so far, utility reforms do not seem to have produced any negative effects on weaker households.     

Centralisation versus Decentralisation of Public Policies: Does the Heterogeneity of Individual Preferences Matter?*

This paper explores the role of the heterogeneity of fiscal preferences in the assignment of policy tasks to different levels of government (decentralisation versus centralisation). With reference to a sample of European countries, a median‐voter mechanism of collective decision is assumed to work at both a national and a supranational level. Using data from a large international survey (the International Social Survey Programme, ISSP), a series of econometric models are estimated in order to make individual attitudes representative of different categories of public expenditure and of different countries. The dominance of decentralisation over centralisation or vice versa is determined on the basis of the utility loss that each individual suffers in connection with the distance between his or her own most preferred level of public expenditure and that chosen by the national/supranational median voter. The main finding is that, differently from the predictions of Oates's decentralisation theorem, the assignment of responsibilities at the supranational level (centralisation) for a number of public expenditure programmes (healthcare, education, unemployment benefits) dominates (or is close to dominating) decentralisation, even in the absence of economies of scale and interregional spillovers. However, when the possibility of interjurisdictional mobility is explicitly considered, in line with the predictions of Tiebout's model, decentralisation dominance becomes more and more substantial and also prevails in the sectors where, under the nonmobility assumption, the assignment of responsibilities at the supranational level is efficient.     

The existential necessity of midlife change

As life expectancy in the West increases and companies can no longer promise lifelong security, many businesspeople will need to make major changes during middle age, embarking on a second life and a second career. They must start by getting beyond two pervasive and opposing myths. The first is that midlife marks the onset of decline. Problems do arise during middle age--concerns about health and finances, for instance--but one's life force does not expire at 65, nor do possibilities vanish. In fact, by middle age, most executives have gained a freedom that only self-knowledge can impart, and they relish unprecedented opportunities for personal growth. Midlife transitions, however, must be rooted in realism, not driven by the second myth, which paints middle age as a time of magical transformation. Contrary to what self-help books and inspirational speakers proclaim, such transformations do not happen. A 50-year-old with little musical training, for instance, will not suddenly become a concert pianist. People who buy into this myth find that their inevitable disappointment can be debilitating. Paradoxically, the doctrine that aims to encourage change actually stifles it. To make successful transitions, executives must stay open to the possibilities their experience qualifies them for but remain realistic about what they can achieve. For companies, employees' midlife transitions represent both a challenge (senior managers seemingly on track to become CEO may instead leave) and an opportunity (other midlife executives, with different perspectives and experiences, may knock on the door). Organizations must help middle-aged executives through this difficult period, not just by offering a workshop or two but by providing ongoing coaching and opportunities for personal and professional development.     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

An integrated approach to supply chain risk analysis

Despite the increasing attention that supply chain risk management is receiving by both researchers and practitioners, companies still lack a risk culture. Moreover, risk management approaches are either too general or require pieces of information not regularly recorded by organisations. This work develops a risk identification and analysis methodology that integrates widely adopted supply chain and risk management tools. In particular, process analysis is performed by means of the standard framework provided by the Supply Chain Operations Reference Model, the risk identification and analysis tasks are accomplished by applying the Risk Breakdown Structure and the Risk Breakdown Matrix, and the effects of risk occurrence on activities are assessed by indicators that are already measured by companies in order to monitor their performances. In such a way, the framework contributes to increase companies’ awareness and communication about risk, which are essential components of the management of modern supply chains. A base case has been developed by applying the proposed approach to a hypothetical manufacturing supply chain. An in-depth validation will be carried out to improve the methodology and further demonstrate its benefits and limitations. Future research will extend the framework to include the understanding of the multiple effects of risky events on different processes.