A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Advancing consumer behaviour theory in tourism via visual narrative art

This paper advances (i) propositions of consumer behaviour theory in tourism via storytelling theory and (ii) skills in decoding elements and subtle details that appear in ‘good stories’ versus not‐so‐good stories within travel contexts. The present paper presents a set of iconic story symbols for use in decoding stories and shows how to use these tools for decoding tourism‐related narratives. Practice using these visual iconic symbols in decoding stories achieves effective storytelling learning via cognitive sculpting; that is, learning improves from moving and arranging (sculpting) potentially three‐dimensional story or electronically movable icons while talking or writing narratives. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Balanced-budget rules: Chaos and deterministic sunspots

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe [11] illustrate that a balanced-budget rule can lead to aggregate instability. In particular, under such a rule it is possible for a steady state to be locally indeterminate, and therefore sunspot equilibria are possible. In this paper, I extend their analysis to investigate the possibility of chaotic equilibria under a balanced-budget rule. A global analysis reveals Euler equation branching which means that the dynamics going forward are generated by a differential inclusion of the form . Each branch alone will not imply interesting dynamics. However, by switching between the branches, I show that the existence of Euler equation branching in an arbitrarily small neighborhood of a steady state implies topological chaos in the sense of Devaney on a compact invariant set with non-empty interior (the chaos is “thick”). Moreover, the chaos is robust to small C¹ perturbations. This branching under a balanced-budget rule occurs independently of the local uniqueness of the equilibrium around the steady state(s).     

Men of Steel Meet the Market: Interpreting Firm Behavior in Russia’s Metallurgy Industry

In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty (2014) explains growing income inequality via the difference between the rate of return on capital and the growth rate of the economy: the “r > g” inequality. Even if it is true that r > g leads to increasing inequality, nearly every school of economic thought predicts that r will fall as the economy grows. Thus, for Capital (2014) to be a comprehensive theory of inequality, a more adequate theory of r is required. I term this the “Piketty Problem.” I offer a solution to this problem from an institutionalist perspective.     

The devolution of HR to the line: Implications for perceptions of people management effectiveness

The devolution of human resource responsibilities from human resource managers to line managers is both a growing and global trend. A number of authors has suggested that there are positive as well as negative consequences of devolution. The current study conducted a survey of US human resource managers to explore the effect of devolution on human resource managers' perceptions of people management effectiveness in their organizations. Results revealed a positive effect of devolution on perceived people management effectiveness. However, this effect was qualified by an interaction between devolution and line support. Contrary to expectation, this interaction revealed that providing line managers with training and support for their human resource responsibilities had a greater positive impact on perceived effectiveness in organizations that had not devolved (non devolvers) compared to those that had (devolvers).     

Ethnic homophily perceptions as an emergent IHRM challenge: evidence from firms operating in Sri Lanka during the ethnic conflict

Ethnic conflict is a defining characteristic of the post-Cold War era and is prevalent particularly in emerging economies, areas of increasing interest to multinational enterprises. Yet little is known about the international human resource management challenges arising from such societal context. Utilizing social identity theory, we propose that ethnic homophily perceptions in the workplace – an employee's assessment that colleagues prefer working with ethnically similar others – is a reflection of the societal context and can be detrimental to the organization if not managed appropriately. We investigate whether contact theory offers insights to manage such perceptions. Drawing on a sample of 550 managers in Sri Lanka during a period of protracted ethnic conflict, we found that employee sensitivity to ethnic conflict in the societal context is positively related to ethnic homophily perceptions in the workplace, and that both ethnic diversity in workgroups and quality of work relationships serve to reduce perceptions of ethnic homophily.     

An Eastern and SME version of expatriate management: an empirical study of small and medium enterprises in Taiwan

This study, different from previous ‘individual level’ research, explored ‘company-level’ expatriate training, expatriation policies and the perceived willingness on the part of expatriates to take on an enhanced role in organizational performance. Based on data from 254 Taiwanese SMEs with foreign investments, an Eastern and SME version of expatriate management is presented. The most significant predictors of expatriate premature return and company sales are the ‘number of expatriates’ and ‘ratio of expatriates with managerial positions’. Companies that have a greater percentage of expatriates with spousal accompaniment experience more premature return while insufficient training explains lower company sales. Insights regarding regional expatriate differences and methodological implications are also elaborated.     

Integration of the Kano and QFD model in health food development: using black beans as examples

This study applied the Kano two-dimensional quality model and quality function deployment (QFD) to develop the black bean’s reputation as a health food and identify quality attributes of consumers’ needs in order to effectively control the attributes. This study first conducted a literature review and summarized the product’s quality attributes and then carried out expert interviews to determine health food quality attributes and consumer need quality attributes. A questionnaire survey was conducted to discuss which quality attributes of black beans consumers perceived to be important when they were presented as a health food and classify their answers using the quality attributes in the Kano model in order to effectively control consumers’ needs. Consumers’ demand for quality attributes was transformed into a technique of product quality development. In a matrix of the two constructs, quality classification of health food in the Kano model and order of consumers’ satisfaction with eating types of health food products, quality factors were transformed into technical specifications of product development for QFD and the construction of the first-stage of the House of Quality matrix. The results serve as references for companies to effectively distribute resources and establish strategies of product development, enhance product quality and consumer satisfaction, reduce product development time, and increase the success rate of products in the market. The results contribute to the health food enterprises are not only can make profit of product but also meet customers’ need.     

CHILD MENTAL HEALTH AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: MULTIPLE OBSERVERS AND THE MEASUREMENT ERROR PROBLEM

We examine the effect of survey measurement error on the empirical relationship between child mental health and personal and family characteristics, and between child mental health and educational progress. Our contribution is to use unique UK survey data that contain (potentially biased) assessments of each child's mental state from three observers (parent, teacher and child), together with expert (quasi‐)diagnoses, using an assumption of optimal diagnostic behaviour to adjust for reporting bias. We use three alternative restrictions to identify the effect of mental disorders on educational progress. Maternal education and mental health, family income and major adverse life events are all significant in explaining child mental health, and child mental health is found to have a large influence on educational progress. Our preferred estimate is that a one‐standard‐deviation reduction in ‘true’ latent child mental health leads to a 2‐ to 5‐month loss in educational progress. We also find a strong tendency for observers to understate the problems of older children and adolescents compared to expert diagnosis. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Applied Econometrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.