Access and use of financial markets for basic education expenses

As a result of the financial crisis of 2008, the macroeconomic adjustment has affected Mexican homes through greater unemployment and a drop in purchasing power. Moreover, families had to keep financing education costs, sometimes going into debt in the formal or informal financial market. The hypothesis of this article proposes that the access and use of formal and informal financial products makes it possible to reduce financial problems associated to education expenses at the basic education levels. The probit model is estimated with a sample comprised of four hundred homes in the municipality of San Pedro Cholula (state of Puebla). The results indicate that a worsening in the work conditions and the loss of employment are associated to a greater probability of facing financial difficulties. Likewise, the access to the formal financial market allows reducing the probability of facing these difficulties, whereas for the informal market the results are a function of the characteristics of each financial intermediary.     

To Sell or Not to Sell: Measuring the Heat of the Housing Market

Combining list‐price, sale‐price and time‐on‐the‐market data, we estimate an index that summarizes housing market conditions and that has a direct economic interpretation. The index measures seller's bargaining power in a structural search model of home seller behavior. Structural estimation uncovers an analytical relationship between reduced form coefficients of hedonic and marketing‐time equations and structural parameters. Thus, the index can be estimated using individual‐level or aggregate data. Using housing transactions data from the Washington, D.C., area, we show that index trends coincide with the up and downturns in home appreciation rates and with popular perceptions about the “heat” of the market.     

Graft, Bribes, and the Practice of Corruption

We construct a dynamic model of corruption in organizations where officials privately know their propensity for corruption and clients optimally choose the bribe offered. We show that there is a continuum set of stationary bribe equilibria due exclusively to the dynamic nature of the model and the endogenous determination of bribes. This can explain why similar countries have stable but different implicit prices for the same illegal services. We also show that, by not considering the reaction of clients, traditional analysis have systematically overestimated the beneficial effect of increasing wages as an anticorruption measure.     

Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?

Current explanations for the high rate of default and foreclosure in the U.S. emphasize house price fluctuations and lax lending criteria. Another explanation for default and foreclosure, which has generally been neglected in the academic literature but not by the FBI, is fraud. One impediment to identifying and measuring fraud is the lack of statistical tests capable of detecting it. This paper proposes a simple method to detect transactions where fraud may have occurred. The models proposed here are important for at least three reasons. First they can document the role of fraud in the mortgage foreclosure crisis. Second, they can serve as part of a forensic effort designed to detect and deter mortgage fraud. Third, they demonstrate that mortgage fraud distorts house price indexes because it artificially elevates house prices during the period of fraud followed by a subsequent collapse due to the foreclosure sales. Accordingly, fraud can give the false impression that foreclosure lowers area house prices when it actually artificially inflates them. This suggests an alternative interpretation for the recent empirical literature on externalities from foreclosure.     

To be consumed with moderation

We study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption. We show that, even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence, the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses. This provides a rationale for why smokers, gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second-best personal rules of behavior - such as “abstinence” - without invoking standard habit formation arguments. We also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual.     

AN EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL WHEN FIRMS OBSERVE WORKERS' EMPLOYMENT STATUS*

This article considers an equilibrium search model, where firms post wages using information on workers' employment status. Earnings differentials between workers of different employment statuses are driven by firms' ability to discriminate workers' reservation wages. I study how these wage policies depend on firms' and workers' characteristics, and how these policies affect the wage distribution. The model delivers new predictions for the amount of wage dispersion that can be generated with search models and provides a better representation of the left tail of the wage distribution in the presence of a legal minimum wage than standard equilibrium search models.     

Alternative measures of homeownership gaps across segregated neighborhoods

The dramatic rise in the U.S. homeownership rate from 64% in 1996 to almost 70% in 2005 has prompted increased attention to the relation between homeownership and demographic characteristics of households. The recent rise and sharp decline of subprime lending will likely spur further interest in homeownership gaps. Statistical analysis of these differences or “gaps” in homeownership between white and minority households has evolved into a highly stylized comparison of differences in homeownership at the mean or the conditional mean. This study implements a quantile decomposition technique that identifies the unexplained portion of the gap not only at the mean, but at every percentile of the homeownership distribution. Results suggest that differences in homeownership gaps at the mean reflect a combination of small differences at the upper end and much larger gaps at the lowest end of the distribution of homeowners. This study also adds credit history to the factors that are used to explain homeownership gaps.     

Solid waste management in Mexico’s offshore platform construction: determining potential supply for a reverse logistics process

One of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s) is to ensure environmental sustainability. This has led international agencies to regulate the generation of waste, specifically solid waste, which is an issue of international significance. This research is an analytical, statistical, historical and deductive investigation that focuses on the management of municipal solid waste and special handling waste (SHW), specifically, the one generated in the construction of offshore platforms in Mexico. A comparative analysis of the waste generated domestically and in the construction of offshore platforms is done. This work proposes the introduction of a third party operator that, through reverse logistics, would develop strategies to recover, reuse or recycle SHW. The level of compliance of the Waste Management Plans of platform construction companies in Mexico is also analyzed. Currently, nine construction companies distributed in the states of Tabasco, Tamaulipas and Veracruz are building offshore platforms in Mexico. Particularly, the south zone of Tamaulipas has become, since the seventies, the largest provider of offshore platforms. These companies are required by law to report the amount of municipal solid waste and SHW that they generate. However, when analyzing the data provided, results show a great area of opportunity. With a proper management of waste, its recovery and/or disposal would be much more efficient. Data collected in the yards of construction is presented, as well as the current situation of the waste in the offshore platform construction industry and possible methods to strengthen environmental policy in solid waste in Mexico.     

Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the United States and the Netherlands

This article assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search‐and‐matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent home price appreciation. The empirical analysis employs listings data on residential units offered for sale through a real estate broker in the Netherlands and for certain U.S. regions. Individual records are used to construct quarterly home price indices, an index that measures seller's bargaining power and (quality‐adjusted) home sale probabilities. Using conventional time‐series models we show that current sale probabilities and bargaining power can significantly reduce home price appreciation forecast errors and help to predict turning points in local area housing markets. The measures and approaches in this article help to demonstrate ways in which researchers and practitioners can leverage listings data to gain knowledge about the current and future state of the housing market.