Tourism and tourist promotion in Spain

The development of tourism as a big industry is a feature of the second half of the 20th century. Spain is one of the countries where tourism has made especially notable progress. While the number of foreign tourists visiting Spain amounted to only 1 mn in 1950, by 1971 it had increased to 27 mn.     

The evolutionary approach to entropy: Reconciling Georgescu-Roegen's natural philosophy with the maximum entropy framework

The paper explores the relevance of recent developments in the Maximum Entropy hypothesis for reinstating Georgescu-Roegen's natural philosophy, with special emphasis on the concepts of evolution and time. The key point is the naturalization of the notion of ‘subjectivity’ in both the Georgescu-Roegen framework and Jaynes's subjectivistic interpretation of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. I introduce the concept of ‘observer relativity’ with reference to the evolution of ‘physical inference devices’. Then, the MaxEnt formalism can be understood as a principle underlying natural selection. Further, given natural selection, maximum entropy production (MEP) results from the confluence of maximum power (Lotka) and the maximization of information capacity, driven by energy dispersal. In these processes, hierarchical structures of gradients of energy dissipation reflect alternative positions of system boundaries, and hence different perspectives of observer-relativity. Thus, I can distinguish between observer relative Entropy_OR and observer independent Entropy_OI. This allows to reconstruct conceptually the two notions of time proposed by Georgescu-Roegen, with subjectivistic time seen as time relative to the evolutionary process involving incommensurable qualitative change. I claim that this philosophical view offers a powerful conceptual framework for recent empirical research into the energetics of economic growth.     

Strategic Privatization in Developing Countries

Privatization of state‐owned enterprises may have important welfare implications, in particular in less developed economies where markets are small and domestic firms are typically relatively weak, both technologically and financially. In these environments, a high‐tech foreign investor acquiring the state‐owned assets may end up dominating the local market, thereby harming local consumer and producer interests. A foreign investor, however, is likely to be both willing and able to offer a higher bid for the assets than local investors. This paper addresses the trade‐off for local governments between privatization revenues and foreign market power. The authors find that there may be an incentive to privatize “strategically” by selling the state‐owned firm to a local (less advanced) investor at a lower price in order to achieve a more competitive post‐privatization market structure.     

Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union

We examine monetary and fiscal interactions in a monetary union model with uncertainty due to imperfect central bank transparency. It is first shown that monetary uncertainty discourages excessive taxation and may thus reduce average inflation and output distortions. However, as countries enter the monetary union, this tax-restraining effect of uncertainty is mitigated. The monetary union may hence lead to higher fiscal distortions in some member countries, depending on governments’ spending targets and on the change in the degree of uncertainty implied by common monetary policy.     

On some topological properties of stable measures

Summary The paper shows that the set of stable probability measures and the set of Rational Beliefs relative to a given stationary measure are closed in the strong topology, but not closed in the topology of weak convergence. However, subsets of the set of stable probability measures which are characterized by uniformity of convergence of the empirical distribution are closed in the topology of weak convergence. It is demonstrated that such subsets exist. In particular, there is an increasing sequence of sets of SIDS measures who's union is the set of all SIDS measures generated by a particular system and such that each subset consists of stable measures. The uniformity requirement has a natural interpretation in terms of plausibility of Rational Beliefs.ncial support from The Carlsberg Foundation, The University of Copenhagen, and Danish Social Science Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Trinidad Casasus, Mordecai Kurz, and Tiefeng Jiang for many useful suggestions for improving the paper, and Karl Vind for helpful discussions about parts of it.     

Possible effects of EMU on German long-term interest rates

It is often argued that long-term German bonds suffer from an inflation premium caused by EMU. A decomposition of long rates shows that factors besides inflationary expectations and conversion risk affect the long bond yield. The following paper therefore discusses a more complete set of channels through which currency union affects interest rates and argues that they do not all point in the direction of rising rates. Data generating processes for long-term bonds are specified and tested for structural breaks. Absence of a structural break is interpreted as evidence against a premium caused by EMU. The authors would like to thank the participants of the German American Academic Council (GAAC) workshop “The Political Economy of European Integration” in Bremen, August 1996, and especially Paul Bergin for their helpful comments. Financial support from the GAAC is gratefully acknowledged.