Comparing public communication in democracies and autocracies: automated text analyses of speeches by heads of government

Quality & Quantity - Renewed efforts at empirically distinguishing between different forms of political regimes leave out the cultural dimension. In this article, we demonstrate how modern...     

Fragmentation, Efficiency-Seeking FDI, and Employment

The paper examines the impact of efficiency-seeking FDI on factor prices, employment, and output. The analysis shows that when transportation costs fall, companies start relocating labor-intensive production processes to low-wage countries. But this does not necessarily hurt workers in the high-wage country. The paper demonstrates an employment-depressing "relocation effect" and an employment-enhancing "efficiency effect." Employment is more likely to rise if the internationality of production is high and if the supply of capital is elastic. Furthermore, the model is capable of explaining intra industry cross-hauling.     

Determinants of analysts’ revenue forecast accuracy

This study investigates financial analysts’ revenue forecasts and identifies determinants of the forecasts’ accuracy. We find that revenue forecast accuracy is determined by forecast and analyst characteristics similar to those of earnings forecast accuracy—namely, forecast horizon, days elapsed since the last forecast, analysts’ forecasting experience, forecast frequency, forecast portfolio, reputation, earnings forecast issuance, forecast boldness, and analysts’ prior performance in forecasting revenues and earnings. We develop a model that predicts the usefulness of revenue forecasts. Thereby, our study helps to ex ante identify more accurate revenue forecasts. Furthermore, we find that analysts concern themselves with their revenue forecasting performance. Analysts with poor revenue forecasting performance are more likely to stop forecasting revenues than analysts with better performance. Their decision is reasonable because revenue forecast accuracy affects analysts’ career prospects in terms of being promoted or terminated. Our study helps investors and academic researchers to understand determinants of revenue forecasts. This understanding is also beneficial for evaluating earnings forecasts because revenue forecasts reveal whether changes in earnings forecasts are due to anticipated changes in revenues or expenses.     

The pricing kernel puzzle in forward looking data

The pricing kernel puzzle concerns the locally increasing empirical pricing kernel, which is inconsistent with a risk-averse representative investor in a single period, single state variable setting. Some recent papers worry that the puzzle is caused simply by the mismatch of backward looking subjective and forward looking risk-neutral distributions of index returns. By using a novel test and forward looking information only, we generally confirm the existence of a u-shaped pricing kernel puzzle in the S&P 500 options data. The evidence is weaker for tests against an alternative with a risk-neutral investor and for longer horizons.     

Subjective well‐being and aggregate unemployment: further evidence

According to the literature, individual well‐being is negatively related to aggregate unemployment. This study examines whether the distribution of aggregate unemployment by duration affects well‐being, in addition to the level of unemployment. Different explanations are provided to indicate how the shares of short‐term (up to 3 months) and long‐term (more than 1 year) unemployed people could affect the well‐being of the employed and unemployed. Using data from almost 300,000 individuals from 11 EU countries, we find significant effects of both shares on life satisfaction. Among the unemployed, for example, we find a U‐shaped effect of the distribution of aggregate unemployment by duration on subjective well‐being, which compensates to some extent for the negative effect of the unemployment rate.     

Visible Reserves in Banks – Determinants of Initial Creation,Usage and Contribution to Bank Stability

The opportunity of building up visible “Reserves for General Banking Risks” by the bank management represents a peculiarity in the German financial accounting framework for banks. We investigate German banks' motives for the creation and usage of these reserves and assess their role in financial stability. We find that banks primarily create and use GBR reserves to build up Tier 1 capital for regulatory capital management and earnings management purposes. Most importantly, however, we also reveal that banks using these reserves are less likely to experience a future distress or a bank default event. We therefore conclude that the existence of GBR reserves within the financial accounting framework represents both a convenient capital and earnings management tool for bank managers and a beneficial regulatory instrument to enhance bank stability.     

How Formal Control Influences Decision‐Making Clarity and Innovation Performance

Implementing formal planning instruments such as the stage‐and‐gate‐type system (SGS) and project management (PM) have long been seen as the key to new product development (NPD) success. They create the structure needed for managing NPD activities, supporting coordination among functional groups, reducing uncertainty and error, and assuring time and cost efficiency. But recent research presents ambiguous results, suggesting that SGS and PM as formal controls can also have a negative effect. Integrating ideas from three literatures—i.e., NPD management, organization control theory, and technical control theory—the present study assesses NPD programs in terms of three perspectives: (1) the formal control mechanisms used for managing NPD programs—specifically SGS, which is mainly seen as a higher organizational level approach used for guiding and implementing a portfolio of NPD projects, and PM, which is a precise formal control mechanism relevant for managing specific problems at a single project level; (2) the immediate outcome of the application of formal controls, i.e. decision‐making clarity (DMC); and (3) degree of NPD innovativeness, a key contingency hypothesized to impact the efficacy of formal controls. For the empirical analysis, data are collected through a survey of 162 corporate NPD programs (Austria and Denmark, manufactured goods and services) where a total of 1274 respondents provide information relevant to their position. Hierarchical regression analysis is used to test the relationships. Results indicate that the performance effect of NPD formal control is fully mediated by DMC. Further, of the six hypothesized outcome relationships, four are fully supported. Both SGS and PM are effective systems for managing NPD when degree of innovativeness is not taken into account. PM, however, loses its efficacy at higher degrees of NPD program innovativeness while SGS continues to work at achieving positive DMC at the radical end of the innovativeness spectrum. Analysis of interaction effects indicates that for more innovative NPD programs, best results are achieved when companies implement an interactive system of both SGS and PM, where the two systems complement each other.