Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks

The authors test hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis in unemployment using panel data for transition countries covering the period 1991:1–2003:11. The advantages of the stationarity tests applied is that they exploit the cross-section variations of the series and, additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. They do not impose independence on the panel members, so that the critical values are simulated based on their specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the shifting natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for all the countries analyzed.     

Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A ‘SURE’ approach to testing for convergence

In this paper, we test for convergence in the environmental performance of a sample of OECD countries, with data ranging from 1971 to 2002. First, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to compute two environmental performance indicators (EPIs) in the production theory framework. Second, we propose the use of a sequential multivariate approach to test for convergence in environmental performance. These tests allow us to reconcile the time series literature with the cross-sectional dimension, which is basic when testing for convergence in regional blocs. The SURE technique is used, which allows for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion. The empirical results show that the group of countries as a whole, as well as the majority of countries considered on an individual basis (results for some countries vary between EPIs), are catching-up with Switzerland (the benchmark country).     

Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates

This paper tries to review, from a practitioner's point of view, the recent strand of literature on cointegration tests allowing for structural changes or parameter instability. Thus, we apply several tests using as an example the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. The results are consistent with the existence of cointegration between the long and the short run Spanish interest rates, with a vector (1,−1), as predicted by the theory. However, there is also evidence of structural instability, mainly at the beginning of 1994, that can be attributed to the financial changes that occurred in Spain as a result of its external commitments in the process of the European Monetary Union.     

Predicting Corporate Failure in the UK: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach

Scaling techniques are proposed as a tool for the analysis and prediction of corporate failure. This approach, while keeping a strong theoretical basis, has the advantage of visualising the main features of the data in the form of statistical maps that lend themselves to intuitive interpretation. The maps contain directional statistics to help with interpretation. The methodology is demonstrated using a sample of UK industrial companies. A future‐dated holdout sample is also employed to illustrate how the Multidimensional Scaling technique can aid practitioners when assessing the financial health of a company.     

EMU and Trade Revisited: Long‐Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations

In this paper, we present evidence of the long‐run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis‐à‐vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross‐dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra‐European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of the member countries have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. The results show that the euro has had a positive though small effect on trade. Belgium and Luxembourg, France and Italy are the countries more benefited from the introduction of the euro. The effects for exports to third countries are in general more moderate, and, with the exception of Greece, there is no evidence of diversion effects.     

Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach

This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.  For this purpose the long-run stochastic relationships on prices derived from the convergence criteria agreed in the Maastricht Treaty are analyzed. In order to do this, some recent unit root tests have been applied as well as time-varying parameters models.  The results reject the long-run convergence hypothesis in all the cases but allow us to accept the existence of catching-up with the European average and Germany in some cases depending on the nature of the prices and on the countries considered. First version received: March 1997/final version received: May 1999     

Note on global dynamics and imbalance effects in the Lucas–Uzawa model

In the traditional literature on the Lucas–Uzawa model, it is proved that in the so‐called normal parametric case, human capital stock grows at a rate greater than its long‐run counterpart in the neighbourhood of the long‐run balanced growth path. We first prove that the claim is true outside the neighborhood of balanced growth paths. More importantly, we identify a crucial asymmetry: whatever the parametric case considered, physical capital stock always grows at a rate lower than its long‐run counterpart when the ratio of physical to human capital is above its long‐run value.