Using signposts in future studies: Lessons from the Justice for tomorrow project

Within the field of future studies, the scenario method is frequently applied. In the literature it is often stressed that it is important to know as soon as possible which of several scenarios is closest to the course of history as it actually unfolds. However, tracking scenarios via early warning mechanisms or signposts, is not a common practice. A standard methodology seems to be absent. Within the context of the Justice for tomorrow project, a scenario project of the Dutch ministry of Justice, we developed and applied a signpost method. We used this method to answer the question of how actual developments relate to the development paths depicted in the scenarios. In this paper we evaluate our approach. We explain what lessons can be learned regarding the use of signposts in future studies.     

Design principles for corporate venture transition processes in established technology firms

Corporate venturing has become a well‐known approach toward new business development and strategic renewal for established technology firms. However, without an effectively designed process for aligning and integrating a corporate venture in the established business, the firm increases the risk of venture failure. This paper provides a process perspective on corporate venture transition. Based on the results of an empirical study of six corporate venture transition processes, we present suitable actions for each of the different phases of the venture transition process. In addition, we indicate the proper timing for venture transition, which is one of the long‐standing difficulties in this area. Finally, we integrate the results of the empirical study with knowledge from extant literature in a set of design principles. These design principles provide practical guidelines to improve corporate venture transition processes.     

Bringing History In: Policy accumulation and general policy alienation

Research mainly looked at problems public professionals have with specific policy programmes. However, policies are not developed in a vacuum. Public professionals are often confronted with (a series of) policy changes, intended to refine, replace or complement other policies. This policy accumulation results in professionals having a certain predisposition towards policies in general. To conceptualize this predisposition, we introduce the term general policy alienation. We investigate whether the earlier developed policy alienation scale can be adapted to measure general policy alienation. Our analyses show that the scale performs satisfactorily. Theoretical relevance, as well as directions for practical applications are discussed.     

New development: Public sector controllership—reinventing the financial specialist as a countervailing power

Different types of ‘controllers’ can be distinguished in the public sector. The authors’ research indicates that public sector controllers acknowledge the distinctive characteristics of ‘hybrid’ controllers, but question some of the possible advantages of ‘pure’ controllers. This result could signal a decreasing share of pure controllers and thus a loss of financial expertise in the public sector. This article calls for the controller to be ‘re-invented’ as a professional who combines solid financial expertise with an independent and critical attitude towards overly ambitious politicians and managers. The general public’s support for public sector organizations could be enhanced if strong controllers counterbalance the sometimes too optimistic views of managers and politicians.     

Small is beautiful? Financial efficiency of small fundraising charities

The study analyses potential scale efficiencies of 1196 Dutch fundraising charities for 2005–2009. The data set includes a unique group of small charities (reporting an income of less than €1 million). The study articulates and tests differences in financial efficiency between smaller and larger charities, specifically concerning program expenditure, administrative expenditure, and fundraising expenditure. The study finds that reported levels of program-spending efficiency and administrative efficiency are similar across small and large charities, with no economies of scale. In addition, the study finds that smaller charities report considerably better fundraising efficiency ratios, with the smallest charities reporting an average spend of €8 to raise €100 and the largest charities reporting an average spend of €15. The paper discusses why larger charities appear to experience scale inefficiencies in fundraising and provides directions for further research.     

Policy instruments for evolution of bounded rationality: Application to climate-energy problems

We demonstrate how an evolutionary agent-based model can be used to evaluate climate policies that take the heterogeneity of strategies of individual agents into account. An essential feature of the model is that the fitness of an economic strategy is determined by the relative welfare of the associated agent as compared to its immediate neighbors in a social network. This enables the study of policies that affect relative positions of individuals. We formulate two innovative climate policies, namely a prize, altering directly relative welfare, and advertisement, which influences the social network of interactions. The policies are illustrated using a simple model of global warming where a resource with a negative environmental impact—fossil energy—can be replaced by an environmentally neutral yet less cost-effective alternative, namely renewable energy. It is shown that the general approach enlarges the scope of economic policy analysis.