China and the international relocation of world textile and clothing activity

Zusammenfassung China und die internationale Verlagerung der Textil- und Bekleidungsindustrie. - Die chinesischen Wirtschaftsreformen seit den sp?ten 70er Jahren haben das Wachstum des chinesischen Au\enhandels erheblich stimuliert. Chinas Exporte arbeitsintensiver Erzeugnisse wie Textilien und Bekleidung erlebten einen Aufschwung und bewirkten, da\ die fortgeschritteneren der asiatischen Entwick-lungsl?nder ihre Exporte schneller in Richtung auf weniger arbeitsintensive Produkte wie synthetische Garne, Stoffe und Fasern entwickelten. Auf diese Weise übt China einen Druck auf die strukturelle Anpassung der Textil- und Bekleidungsindustrien in den Industriel?ndern aus, und zwar direkt (am arbeitsintensiven Ende des Spektrums) und indirekt über die asiatischen Schwellenl?nder (deren übergang zu kapitalintensiveren Aktivit?ten beschleunigt wird). Parallel zu diesem Beitrag Chinas zum Anstieg des ostasiatischen Anteils am Weltexport von Textilien und Bekleidung l?uft sein Beitrag zur steigenden Vorherrschaft Ostasiens bei den Importen von unverarbeiteter Wolle und Baumwolle. In welchem Umfang China weiterhin in dieser Weise fortf?hrt - und dabei seine eigene Volkswirtschaft entwickelt und st?rkt -, h?ngt in hohem Ma\e von ?nderungen der Importbeschr?nkungspolitik in den Industriel?ndern ab.

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Résumé La Chine et la relocation internationale des activités mondiales en textile et habillement. - Les réformes en politique économique chinoise depuis les années soixante-dix ont stimulé le commerce extérieur chinois. Les exportations chinoises des produits manufacturés intensifs à la main d’∄uvre comme par exemple des produits finis de textile et de l’habillement ont prospéré considérablement poussant les pays développants asiatiques plus avancés d’exporter des biens moins intensifs à la main d’∄uvre comme p.e. les fils synthétiques, les tissus et les fibres. Ainsi la Chine exerce des pressions d’ajustement structurel sur les industries de textile et de l’habillement dans les pays industriels avancés d’une manière directe (à la fin du spectre où il y a des biens intensifs à la main d’∄uvre) et indirecte via les PNI asiatiques (où le développement envers des activités plus intensives aux capitaux est accéléré). En même temps la Chine contribue beaucoup à la dominance montante de l’Asie de l’Est en importations mondiaux du coton pur et de la laine. La mesure avec laquelle la Chine continue à contribuer en telles manières - et ainsi à développer et fortifier son économie propre - dépend fortement des changements des politiques d’importation restrictives dans les pays industriels.

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Resumen La China y la reubicación international de la industria textil y de la confección de prendas de vestir. - Las reformas de política económica realizadas desde fines de la década del setenta estimularon el comercio international de China. Sus exportaciones de manufacturas intensivas en mano de obra como ser las de textiles y confección crecieron pronunciadamente, dando motivo a los países más avanzados del Asia para modificar su estructura de exportación en dirección hacia productos de menor intensidad laboral como ser hilos, tejidos y fibras sintéticas. Con ello China ejerce presión sobre las industrias textiles y de confección de los países industriales avanzados, tanto en forma directa (en el lado del espectro con alta intensidad en mano de obra) como indirecta a través de los NICs asiáticos (cuyo énfasis en actividades intensivas en capital es fomentado), con el fin de lograr un reajuste estructural. Paralelamente a esta contribución de China al crecimiento de la participatión del Este asiático en las exportaciones mundiales de productos textiles y de confección, China contribuye al aumento de la importancia del Este asiático como importador de algodón natural y lana. La medida en la cual China continuará contribuyendo - y de esta mariera desarrollando y fortaleciendo su propia economía - depende ante todo de las politicas de importación restrictivas de los paises industriales.

     

Risk Management,Corporate Governance,and the Search for Long-Term Investors

This discussion explores a number of ways that more effective risk management, corporate governance, and communication with investors can help companies increase their effciency and long-run value. According to one of the panelists, recent surveys of corporate directors suggest that companies should devote more time and attention to three issues—strategy, risk management, and succession planning—and that strategy and risk are the “flipsides of the same coin.” As the panelist argues, “You can't talk about strategy without talking about what risks you're going to take—and what risks you decide to take has to depend on the core competencies that drive the corporate strategy.” In addition to making risk management a critical part of corporate strategy, another notable recommendation is to communicate a company's strategy and business plan as clearly as possible to investors, with the aim of attracting more sophisticated, long-term shareholders. Contrary to popular belief, such a group may well include some hedge funds and other activist shareholders. According to a newly released report on shareholder activism (produced and cited by another panelist), corporate boards should work harder to identify and engage the “largest 10 shareholders in the organization,” with the ultimate goal of cultivating a shareholder base that buys into the company's strategy.     

Corporate Hedging Policy and Equity Mispricing

We show that firms’ use of derivatives is negatively associated with stock mispricing. This result is consistent with the notion that hedging improves the transparency and predictability of firms’ cash flows resulting in less misvaluation. Furthermore, we show that the negative relationship between mispricing and hedging is particularly strong when market value is below fundamental value, which is consistent with prior evidence that hedging has a positive impact on firm valuation. Finally, we provide evidence that a “spread‐out” hedging policy that entails the use of a variety of derivative contracts can be more effective in reducing mispricing.     

Vacaciones y licencias en países desarrollados: los Estados Unidos a la zaga en cuanto a equilibrio entre vida profesional y vida familiar

Los autores comparan las normativas sobre vacaciones y licencias susceptibles de facilitar el equilibrio entre vida profesional y familiar de Australia, Canadá, República de Corea, Estados Unidos, Europa occidental y Japón utilizando un índice compuesto para clasificarlas. Los Estados Unidos figuran en último lugar: la concesión de vacaciones anuales al trabajador no es obligatoria y las licencias por motivos familiares se limitan a 12 semanas al año. Este bajo nivel de reglamentación podría deberse, según los autores, a una concepción mercantilista del empleo sumada a la creencia de que empleador y trabajadores tienen idéntica capacidad de negociación, visión no compartida por las demás democracias industrializadas.     

Comparison of SML and GMM estimators for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data

A simulated maximum likelihood (SML) estimator for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data is found to be more efficient than the widely used generalized method of moments estimator (GMM) of Berry et?al. (Econometrica 63:841?C890, 1995). In particular, the SML estimator is better than the GMM estimator in recovery of heterogeneity parameters which are often of central interest in marketing research. With the GMM estimator, the analyst must determine what moment conditions to use for parameter identification, especially the heterogeneity parameters. With the SML estimator, the moment conditions are automatically determined as the gradients of the log-likelihood function, and these are the most efficient ones if the model is correctly specified. Another limitation of the GMM estimator is that the product market shares must be strictly positive while the SML estimator can handle zero market share observations. Properties of the SML and GMM estimators are demonstrated in simulated data and in data from the US photographic film market.     

Consumer rationality and credit card pricing: An explanation based on the option value of credit lines

An option is embedded in credit cards. Since credit cards offer open credit lines, cardholders can borrow at the same terms when they become riskier. This option value raises the zero‐profit card rate. Furthermore, adverse selection occurs if cardholders are better informed about the probability of becoming riskier in the future and borrow more when they become riskier. The adverse selection can limit rate competition and keep the card rate above the zero‐profit card rate. An up‐front fee is not a good alternative because it is also vulnerable to adverse selection. A low introductory card rate is an effective way to avoid the adverse selection problem when asymmetric information is mainly about the change in the borrower's risk profile in the future, as opposed to the riskiness in the present period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Value at risk forecasting for volatility index

Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error.     

Do gender and age impact the time‐varying Okun's law? Evidence from South Korea

This study investigates the time‐varying Okun's law for different age and gender cohorts in South Korea over the 1980–2014 period. We found that the absolute value of the estimated Okun coefficients for all age cohorts and both genders become larger in a recession than in an expansion. We also found that the youth cohort (15–24 years old) for both genders is more sensitive to a negative economic impact than are older cohorts. These differences imply that when policymakers try to find a way of reducing the unemployment rate, they should consider differences in behaviour among these groups. Furthermore, the policies should be combined with age‐specific policies.     

The changing pattern of industrial technology linkage structure of Korea: Did the ICT industry play a role in the 1980s and 1990s?

The notion of the knowledge-based economy highlights the strategic importance of inter-industrial knowledge flows. Among others, the crucial role of information and communications technology (ICT) industry is emphasized. The pattern whereby technological knowledge is created, accumulated and disseminated through the interactive learning among industries can be portrayed as a network. Based on the network theory, this empirical study analyses, from the dynamic perspective, inter-industrial technological knowledge structure of Korean industries during the reference period of early 1980s to mid-1990s. Overall, the density of the network increased over time, implying that the knowledge network has expanded and intensified. The role of the ICT industry in the global network has also increased but needs to be further strengthened, especially informatization of non-ICT industries by the outflow of ICT industrial knowledge in the future. The findings in turn render some important policy implications that should be addressed in developing technology policy.