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201.
202.
R. Charles MoyerRobert E. ChatfieldGary D. Kelley 《International Journal of Forecasting》1985,1(3):241-252
This paper examines the accuracy of various methods of forecasting long-term earnings growth for firms in the electric utility industry. In addition to a number of extrapolative techniques, Value Line analyst forecasts are also evaluated. Value Line analyst forecasts for a five-year time horizon are found to be superior to many of the extrapolative models. Among the extrapolative models examined, implied growth and historical book value per share growth rate models performed best. These results provide strong support for using Value Line growth forecasts in cost of capital estimates for electric utilities in the context of utility rate cases. Value Line forecast errors could be explained by changes in dividend payout ratios, the firm's regulatory environment and bond rating changes. 相似文献
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205.
House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices,and economic activity in industrialized countries over the lastthree decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panelvector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17industrialized countries spanning the period 1970–2006.The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) Thereis evidence of a significant multidirectional link between houseprices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The linkbetween house prices and monetary variables is found to be strongerover a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effectsof shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger whenhouse prices are booming. 相似文献
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209.
The current expansion has seen record-high levels of
transactions in housing, extraordinary growth in the aggregate
value of owner-occupied housing, and large increases
in the amount of funds realized from the
refinancing of mortgage debt. Many analysts thus have
pointed to the strong housing market and rising home
prices as a major pillar supporting recent economic growth
and have expressed concern that a contraction in housing activity and values could pose a significant risk to consumer
spending and real economic growth. This paper explores
the channels by which the housing market may
affect consumer spending and assesses the potential risk
from a softening in the housing market. Our assessment is
that while a housing slowdown by itself may slow consumer
spending some, it is probably insufficient to precipitate
a downturn without some additional shocks outside of
the sector.
JEL Classification E21,R21 相似文献
210.
Lynne Lewis Bennett Charles W. Howe & James Shope 《American journal of agricultural economics》2000,82(4):1006-1015
Interstate river compacts are widely used to allocate water among riparian states. Twenty-one compacts are currently in force in the western United States, and these compacts are mostly of two types: those that allocate a fixed amount or flow of water to individual states; and those that allocate percentages of available water to the riparian states. This study compares the performance of the two resulting allocations with that resulting from basin-wide optimization without compact constraints. While widely varying hydrologic and economic characteristics of river basins create a large set of possible outcomes, a range of stylized case studies indicates that percentage compacts are likely to generate greater net benefits and to result in more equitable risk-sharing than fixed compacts under many circumstances. In light of recent compact negotiations in the southeastern United States, it is recommended that efficiency analyses under present and future conditions be made a part of all compact negotiations. 相似文献