A Dynamic Double-Trigger Model of Multifamily Mortgage Default

This study advances the commercial mortgage literature by providing theory and methods for incorporating both equity and cash-flow considerations in default models. We use local market conditions to compute a (joint) probability that default is in-the-money, based on both equity and cash-flow considerations. Statistical analysis is performed using data on multifamily mortgages originated in the 1980s and early 1990s. Simulations based on statistical modeling show advantages of the probabilistic double-trigger approach over other measures of equity and cash flow.     

A new full‐nest classification approach

This study conceptually and empirically develops an improved approach for classifying full‐nest households. Unlike existing life‐cycle models, this study separates traditional full‐nest couples who marry and have children at a young age from those who delay marriage and childbearing until their 30s. Nontraditional delayed full‐nest spouses held nontraditional sex role norms and values and experienced greater work and time pressures. They also consumed more healthy foods and beverages, avoided convenience and junk foods, but consumed more meals prepared away from home, as well as alcoholic beverages, than their traditional counterparts. While extant life‐cycle approaches use age of head of household to separate school‐age and older full‐nest families, this study uses the transitions of the youngest child to school age, and then to teenage years. This distinction more effectively captures life‐style and consumption differences than does the traditional life‐cycle approach. Overall, this new full‐nest classification scheme outperforms existing life‐cycle approaches in identifying unique sex‐role norms and values profiles as well as household food and beverage consumption patterns. It also captures meaningful and significant differences, in dollar values of home entertainment devices and furniture and of major durable assets not uncovered by previous research. Based on these findings, it is recommended that this full‐nest classification approach be incorporated into extant life‐cycle models. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Strategic Preemption in a Common Property Resource: A Continuous Time Approach

The threat of future entry affects the exploitation of common property resources in important ways. An incumbent has a strategic incentive to manipulate the resource stock to deter entry or to harvest more stock prior to entry rather than share the resource with the entrant. It is possible that the threat of potential entry can lead to the extinction of the resource even though actual competition would result in a steady state with a positive stock level.     

Gross national accumulation

Low birth rates, longevity, family disintegration, and other factors have reduced the size of the average household. At the same time household size is shrinking, new housing offers twice the floor space per occupant of old housing. Small households are inefficient users of space, utilities, furniture, and equipment. As these factors converge, the result is over consumption of durables and vast stockpiles of possessions just awaiting disposal when the baby boom generation passes on. The rightful heirs to these possessions are themselves accumulators, and will most likely have little use for what is left to them. What does the future hold for consumption, savings, and demand for housing? Booming flea markets, bigger homes as warehouses, a decline in consumption, or an epidemic of display and collection? Public policies have limited leverage on private behavior.     

Trade policy under imperfect competition: The economics of Russian roulette

Summary Neo-classical economic theory shows that managed trade or protectionism is (almost) always welfare decreasing. However, measurements of the welfare costs of protectionism based on neo-classical models seem to suggest that these costs are quite small. We discuss general new insights and developments in the theory, policy and empiricism of international trade. The observation that intra-industry trade and the services sector are important has led to a shift in theory away from constant returns to scale and perfect competition towards economies of scale and scope, externalities, market imperfections, and imperfect competition. Although this, in principle, opens the door to beneficial government intervention in the economic process, we emphasize that the true costs of protection can potentially be much higher than is generally acknowledged as a result of the above mentioned shift.We would like to thank, without implicating, Martin Fase, Harry Garretsen, Catrinus Jepma, Simon Kuipers, Ger Lanjouw, Tenn Schmidt, Albert de Vaal, and Jean-Marie Viaene for stimulating conversations and useful suggestions. We thank Thijs Knaap for excellent research assistance.     

Public Choice and Urban Water Quality*

Abstract . It is the purpose of this paper to examine critically the choice of “zero discharge” as me ultimate goal of our federal water pollution policy and to demonstrate that a goal of 90 percent removal of pollutants from effluents of urban areas will be more economically efficient. Our results indicate that in reaching “Zero discharge,” there is a minimal return in water quality for urban areas which are located on large bodies of water. The final conclusion is that the substantial resources, which would be required to surpass the level of 90 percent removal of pollutants, could be employed more effectively in other social programs.     

Short-term capital flows under flexible exchange rates

Zusammenfassung Kurzfristige Kapitalbewegungen bei flexiblen Wechselkursen. — In dieser Arbeit werden die kurzfristigen Kapitalzuflüsse in ihrer Eigenschaft als ausl?ndische Nachfrage nach heimischem Geld behandelt. Unter diesem Aspekt hat ein exogener Zufluβ bei flexiblen Wechselkursen eine unmittelbar deflation?re Wirkung. Auβerdem werden die wechselkursinduzierten kurzfristigen Kapital-bewegungen in einem einfachen makro?konomischen Modell analysiert. Selbst wenn man den mehr traditionellen Typ von zinselastischen Kapitalbewegungen in dem Modell berücksichtigt, führt der hier gew?hlte Ansatz zu bedeutsamen Modifikationen der Standardargumentation.

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Résumé Les flux des capitaux à court terme sous les conditions de cours de change flexibles. — Cet article se concentre sur les afflux des capitaux à court terme compris comme démande extérieure en faveur d’argent local. Un afflux exogène sous cet angle a un effet directement déflationniste sous les conditions de cours de change flexibles. De plus, cet article analyse le r?le des afflux des capitaux à court terme induits par le cours de change. Même en considérant le type plus traditionel des flux des capitaux étant élastique envers l’intérêt dans notre modèle cette approche mène aux qualifications signifiantes du modèle de standard.

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Resumen Flujos de capital de corto plazo bajo tasas de cambio flexibles. — Este artículo se concentra sobre los influjos de capital de corto plazo considerados como demanda extranjera por moneda doméstica. Un influjo exógeno tiene, bajo este punto de vista, un efecto deflatorio directo bajo tasas de cambio flexibles. Además, este articulo analiza el rol de los flujos de capital de corto plazo inducidos por variaciones en la tasa de cambio en un modelo macro-económico simple. Incluso considerando en nuestro modelo flujos de capital elásticos con respecto a la tasa de interés del tipo más tradicional, este enfoque nos muestra cualificaciones significativas del modelo standard.

     

Hypothesis testing based on goodness-of-fit in the moving average time series model

Small sample properties of t-tests are compared with those of tests based on relative goodness- of-fit in the context of the first order moving average time series model. Monte Carlo experiments reported in the paper suggest that the actual size of these t-tests greatly exceeds theoretical large sample significance levels, while conformity of goodness-of-fit statistics to the appropriate chi-square or F-distributions is much closer. The evidence presented suggests that practitioners are well advised to employ goodness-of-fit tests as a check on results of t-tests particularly when the latter indicate ‘significance’.