Coordinated strategies for economic cooperation between Europe and the United States

Zusammenfassung Koordinierte Strategien für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen Europa und den Vereinigten Staaten. - In diesem Aufsatz wird die dynamische Spieltheorie auf die Koordinierung der Politik zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und der EWG in einem stark aggregierten Modell angewandt und folgendes gezeigt: (i) Eine Politik, die den Einflu\ von Ma\nahmen anderer L?nder vernachl?ssigt, führt in den USA zu Fiskalischen Einschr?nkungen und einer Verminderung der staatlichen Interventionen, in Europa dagegen zu einer Nachfragestimulierung, verbunden mit einer kontinuierlichen Herabsetzung des Diskontsatzes. Die EWG-L?nder sind, da sie ihre Politik nicht koordinieren, nach einigen Jahren wegen Zahlungsbilanzschwierigkeiten zu einer kontraktiven Nachfragepolitik gezwungen. (ii) Koordinierte Strategien best?tigen, da\ nicht-synchronisierte Politiken die Weltwirtschaft stabilisieren k?nnen. (in) Kooperation verbessert die wirtschaftlichen Leistungen, ausgedrückt in den Wachstumsraten und den Zahlungsbilanzen. Allerdings erbringt die ausdrückliche Zusammenarbeit kaum noch zus?tzliche Vorteile zu denen, die bereits im Rahmen der vollen Koordinierung erreicht werden k?nnen.

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Resumen Estrategias coordinadas de cooperación económica entre Europa y los EEUU.- La aplicación de un modelo dinámico de teoría de juegos a la coordinatión de política económica entre los EEUU y la CEE, como parte de un modelo altamente agregado de la economía mundial, permite concluír en este trabajo que (i) políticas que ignoran la influencia de medidas tomadas en otros países dan lugar a una contractión fiscal y a una menor interventión del Gobierno en los EEUU, pero a una estimulación de la demanda combinada con reducciones continuas de la tasa de descuento en Europa; al seguir políticas descoordinadas los países de la CEE están obligados a contraer la demanda agregada al cabo de unos a?os, debido a los problemas de balance de pagos, (ii) estrategias coordinadas confirman que políticas no sincronizadas pueden estabilizar la economía mundial; (iii) la cooperación favorece a la economía en términos de tasas de crecimiento y balance de pagos. Sin embargo, los beneficios adicionales de una cooperatión explícita resultan marginales en comparación con los beneficios ya alcanzados por la solución con coordinación total.

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Résumé Stratégies coordonnées pour la coopération entre l’Europe et les E.U. - En appliquant la théorie dynamique de jeu à la coordination de politique entre les E.U. et la CEE dans un modèle fortement agrégé de l’économie mondiale, cet article arrive aux conclusions suivants: (i) La politique qui ignore l’influence des actions suivies dans d’autres économies mène à la réduction fiscale et à moins interventions gouvernementales dans les E.U., mais à une stimulation de la demande avec des réductions continuelles du taux d’escompte en Europe. En cas d’une politique pas coordonnée les pays CEE sont forcés à prendre des mesures pour freiner la demande agrégée après quelques années à cause des problèmes de la balance des paiements. (ii) La stratégie coordonnée confirme que des politiques pas synchronisées pourraient stabiliser l’économie mondiale. (iii) La coopération peut élever le taux de croissance et améliorer la balance des paiements. Cependant, les gains additionnels d’une coopération explicite sont petits en comparaison avec les bénéfices déjà gagnés à l’aide d’une solution complètement coordonne’e.

     

Recall and recognition effects of brand name imagery

The strategic marketing decision regarding the selection of a brand name has long been an area neglected by academic researchers. This study attempts to apply psychological theory to this important strategic decision area. Specifically, the applicability of a dual-coding theory of memory to brand name recall/recognition is tested in an experimental setting. Results indicate, on average, a significant one hour and two day recall/recognition advantage of high imagery over low imagery brand names across a variety of product categories.     

The Impact of Option Introduction on Stock Return Variances: The Role of Bid-Ask Spreads, Return Autocorrelations, and Intrinsic Variances

The purpose of this paper is to examine changes in stock return variances following option introduction. The sample consists of National Market System stocks and employs both transaction returns and returns based on bid and ask quotes. Variances are decomposed into portions attributable to bid-ask spreads, return autocorrelations, and intrinsic variances. Spreads play a negligible role in explaining variance changes. A generally positive component to short-term autocorrelations falls following option introduction, increasing variances over short holding periods. Intrinsic variances fall prior to the October 1987 crash, but do not change after the crash with option introduction.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of VAT in India

Indian industry is under pricing pressure after the government cut tariffs in a phased manner as per the WTO agreements. In order to be competitive, the consensus opinion in government, academics and industry is the implementation of a VAT in India. The paper evaluates the welfare implications of a VAT in the static and a sequentially dynamic context after accounting for the political and administrative constraints facing the Indian government in implementing a VAT. Replacing the old indirect tax structure with a VAT is welfare worsening. The increase in final consumer prices on account of reduced tax base leads to higher price of essentials, causing welfare loss. Zero rating v/s exemption plays an important role on welfare, with lower welfare loss if essential commodities are exempt from VAT. Agriculture sector unambiguously plays a crucial role in welfare.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

Initial Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Individual Investor: Insights from Japan

Initial margin requirements represent: (1) a cost impediment to the wealth constrained investor and (2) a potential way of mitigating excessive volatility. However, prior empirical research finds that margins are not an effective tool in reducing volatility. We consider the possibility that margins primarily affect certain stocks and investors. Specifically, we test whether margins affect individuals who, as a group, we believe to be the investors most affected when margin requirements change. Our initial empirical tests, however, do not support this contention.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

THE RETURNS TO ENDOGENOUS HUMAN CAPITAL IN PAKISTAN'S RURAL WAGE LABOUR MARKET

This paper estimates the private returns to human capital in Pakistani rural labour markets. The rich data used permit inclusion of several dimensions of human capital and control for endogeneity resulting from investment in human capital. The results suggest that, without data on determinants of human capital, it would not be possible to disentangle the separate effect of each dimension of human capital on wage differentials nor to distinguish human capital explanations for wage differentials from signalling and credentialist models. With control for endogeneity of human capital and selectivity into wage employment, cognitive achievement, but not schooling attainment separate from cognitive achievement nor long-run health status, affects wage differentials.     

Position limits for cash‐settled derivative contracts

Cash settlement of derivative contracts makes them susceptible to manipulation by traders who expect to close large positions upon final settlement. Cash settlement also increases underlying volatility when hedgers unwind their hedges if they have no incentives to control their trading costs. Limits on the positions that traders can carry into final settlement can be used to mitigate associated economic inefficiencies when surveillance is insufficient. This article develops a model that regulators can use to set these limits that is based upon microstructure theory. The empirical findings indicate that existing position limits are largely inconsistent with those suggested by the model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:945–965, 2005     

Foodcrop Demand in Indonesia: A Systems Approach

Aggregate agricultural commodity demand parameters are estimated, based on an application of the Deaton and Muellbauer Almost Ideal Demand System to a seventeen year Indonesian time-series data set of prices, expenditures and consumption availability. The statistical results are generally significant and correctly signed. The revealed demand relationships imply that the Indonesian food Staples are normal goods. Expenditure elasticities are higher for the higher value foodstuffs than for the lower value starchy staples. Furthermore, the demand for rice has become highly inelastic to both own and cross-price interventions. This implies that rice price interventions will require a high degree of fine-tuning in order to stabilise prices effectively, and that low urban rice prices cannot be regarded as an appropriate, or even second best policy instrument for improving nutritional status.

A high degree of Substitution between rice and secondary food crops, and amongst groups of secondary food crops, is identified. The significance of the cross-price elasticities for the secondary food crops suggests that single-market interventions will have non-trivial budget-mediated effects in other commodity markets. The management of a multi-commodity food policy requires that the spillover effects from commodity pricing policy must be taken into account in order to optimise the effects of price policy interventions.