国际资本流入对中国金融稳定性的影响和对策分析

从2002年开始,中国非FDI资本流入和"错误与遗漏"账户一改过去十多年的运行模式,由负转正."错误与遗漏"账户数值为正一般被用来解释国家监控之外的大部分资本流入.非FDI和"错误与遗漏"账户两项正值则可以明确地显示出人民币升值预期下大量投机性资本的偷偷流入.本文主要分析了国际资本流入对中国宏观经济稳定的影响,并提出了相应的政策建议.     

我国企业债券的利率定价机制探析

目前,我国企业债券利率上限管制是制约企业债券发展的重要因素,利率定价市场化是企业债券市场化取向的核心内容,要大力发展企业债券市场,必须使企业债券的利率定价市场化,采用多元化的定价机制.     

标准化工作在技术监督工作中的基础地位

从质量监督、质量管理和ＱＣ小组活动入手,论述了标准对质量评定,质量监督、质量执法的影响和对建立完善质量体系、ＱＣ小组活动的全过程的作用,阐明了标准化工作在质量监督、质量管理等技术监督工作中的基础地位。     

The study of contagious paces of financial crises

This study deals with the emergence of different regional crises and the comparison of early warning indicators to check for the accuracy of pace of exits. It was found that trade factors and monetary conditions clearly play a pivotal role in affecting the probability of existing time to currency crisis episodes and on the recurrence of crises. More specifically, using the index of market pressure methods, it is likely that the Asian Financial Crisis and the Mexico Tequila Crisis, when compared with the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) Crisis, were preceded by different spreads accelerating across those countries. The evidence suggests that efficient early warning indicators may exist and may be identified depending on the methods applied to the pace of exit involved.     

我国公共基础设施的规模效应及结构效应分析——基于1996-2010的制造业行业数据

基于三要素的成本函数,本文利用1996—2010年20个制造业行业的面板数据,考察了以能源、交通以及邮电通讯为代表的公共基础设施对产业部门的要素投入数量以及要素投入结构的影响。结果表明:公共基本设施投入不仅具有降低行业平均成本的作用,而且对行业成本结构具有显著影响。相对于劳动投入,要素投入更加向资本和中间品倾斜。     

购买力平价理论与中美汇率估值

购买力平价理论是现代汇率决定理论的基石之一，本文首先直观简要地分析了近三十多年中美两国通货膨胀率和汇率变化趋势，然后采用ADF和协整的方法对购买力平价的三变量模型进行了检验，最后在此基础上，利用相对购买力平价理论模型估值目前人民币对美元均衡汇率。     

Open interest,volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets

This paper examines the relationships amongst volatility, total trading volume (TVOL) and total open interest (TOI) for three Taiwan stock index futures markets as well as the role of the latter two variables in the dynamics of GARCH modeling and forecasting. From both ex-post and ex-ante perspectives, we study this issue by using the VAR model and augmented GARCH-type models, respectively. For the GARCH-type models, we employ both symmetric and asymmetric models augmented with lagged logs in TOI and/or TVOL. We find that whether addition of these two variables helps the basic GARCH models predict future volatility depends upon the sample period examined for all three sets of futures. Nonetheless, the best three models for out-of-sample volatility forecasting in the MSE sense are generally the augmented models for all sub-intervals and all three futures contracts.     

网络视角的澳门城市竞争力分析

城市竞争力是单体城市获得经济持续增长的动态能力,其影响因素包括内生因素和外部因素两个方面。在澳门经济转型升级的动态过程中,城市竞争力的提升具有重要的战略地位。本文从城市网络的视角,运用主成分分析方法,对澳门城市竞争力的内生因素和外部因素进行了实证分析。同时通过与广州、深圳、珠海三个城市的比较来综合分析澳门的城市竞争力状态,提出提升澳门城市竞争力的政策选择。