This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.     

亏损上市公司盈余管理实证分析

亏损对上市公司的负面影响非常大,处于亏损边缘或可能微亏的上市公司会通过盈余管理手段来操纵盈利,以避免成为被关注对象或暂停上市或终止上市。本文以我国连亏两年、连亏三年又扭亏的106家上市公司为样本,通过构建模型进行了实证检验,总结出亏损上市公司进行盈余管理的结论并提出建议,以期为证券监管提供经验证据。     

Banks’ non-traditional activities under regulatory changes: impact on risk,performance and capital adequacy

Using the big six Canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018, we examine the impact of non-interest income on Canadian banks’ risk, performance and capital under the different major regulatory changes made to the Bank Act of Canada. Our results show that Canadian banks’ expansion into non-traditional activities had slightly decreased their risks and significantly improved their performance benefitting from income diversification. Moreover, while adhering to capital adequacy regulation, reshuffling banks’ portfolio towards non-traditional activities did not reduce Canadian banks’ capital ratio. In spite of the re-regulation towards universal banking against ring-fencing, this feature buttresses the effectiveness of capital adequacy regulation in Canada in linking banks capital allocation with their risk taking.     

加入WTO对烟草行业的影响与对策

一、中国入世后对烟草行业的影响 WTO的一项重要原则就是要实现贸易自由化,通过贸易自由化的实施来逐步达到资源的优化配置和实现经济的快速增长.众所周知,加入WTO,既要享受WTO赋予的权利,也要承担WTO所要求的义务,就中国烟草而言,笔者认为,不外乎以下几个方面的影响:     

论信托业发展的四大优势

信托业是现代金融的重要组成部分,随着我国信托业有史以来最严峻的清理整顿工作的结束,信托投资公司将迎来广阔的市场空间和光明的行业前景。笔者认为,信托投资公司经过整顿后,具备了四大优势。 一、具有良好的政策环境和法律保障 我国信托投资公司已有20多年改革开放的发展历史,曾经为我国经济建设起到积极作用。然而,由于一直缺乏基本的业务规范和明确法律定位,     

数字信息资源的发展与图书馆期刊工作

本文分析了数字信息资源的发展给图书馆期刊工作带来的积极作用和压力，并探讨了数字信息资源的发展与改进图书馆期刊工作对策。     

天然气压缩因子对流量计量的影响

探讨了速度式和容积式流量计用于天然气计量时,天然气压缩因子对其计量结果的影响;同时也探讨了无压缩因子修正或修正不当而造成的二次仪表计量误差.     

Enterprise Risk Management and the Cost of Capital

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a process that manages all risks in an integrated, holistic fashion by controlling and coordinating any offsetting risks across the enterprise. This research investigates whether the adoption of the ERM approach affects firms' cost of equity capital. We restrict our analysis to the U.S. insurance industry to control for unobservable differences in business models and risk exposures across industries. We simultaneously model firms' adoption of ERM and the effect of ERM on the cost of capital. We find that ERM adoption significantly reduces firm's cost of capital. Our results suggest that cost of capital benefits are one answer to the question how ERM can create value.