Biogeography based optimization for mining rules to assess credit risk

Financial institutions, by and large, rely on the use of machine learning techniques to improve the classic credit risk assessment model for reduction of costs, delivery of faster decisions, guaranteed credit collections, and risk mitigations. As such, several data mining and machine learning approaches have been developed for computation of credit scores over the last few decades. Moreover, the existing rule-based classification algorithms tend to generate a number of rules with a large number of conditions in the antecedent part. However, these algorithms fail to demonstrate high predictive accuracy while balancing coverage and simplicity. Thus, it becomes quite a challenging task for the researchers to generate an optimal rule set with high predictive accuracy. In this paper, we present an effective rule based classification technique for the prediction of credit risk using a novel Biogeography Based Optimization (BBO) method. The novel BBO in the context of rule mining is named as locally and globally tuned biogeography based rule-miner (LGBBO-RuleMiner). This is applied for discovering optimal rule set with high predictive accuracy from the dataset containing both the categorical and continuous attributes. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared against a variety of rule-miners such as OneR (1R), PART, JRip, Decision Table, Conjunctive Rule, J48, and Random Tree, along with some meta-heuristic based rule mining techniques by considering two credit risk datasets obtained from University of California, Irvine (UCI) repository. It is found from the comparative study that the proposed rule miner in ten independent runs of ten-fold cross validation outperforms all of the aforesaid algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy, coverage, and simplicity.     

On the complexity of repeated principal agent games?

Summary. We examine an infinitely repeated principal agent game without discounting (Radner [1985] ), in which the agent may engage in multiple projects. We focus on “linear” strategies that summarize each history into a linear function of public outcomes, and select an action according to a single threshold rule. We claim that linear strategies significantly simplify the computation needed to make strategic decisions following each history. Despite the simplicity of linear strategies, we can virtually recover the folk theorem. For any individually rational payoff vector in the interior of the set of feasible expected payoff vectors, there exists a pair of linear strategies that form a Nash equilibrium supporting the target payoff. The equilibrium strategies and the equilibrium payoff vectors form a globally stable solution (Smale [1980] ).     

Estimating Households' Preferences for Environmental Amenities Using Equilibrium Models of Local Jurisdictions

Much research has focused on the development of equilibrium models of local jurisdictions to analyze the formation of social structures and community characteristics. These models, however, have been subjected to little empirical testing. In a recent paper, Epple and Sieg (1999) developed a new method for estimating equilibrium models of local jurisdictions, but they did not include environmental amenities in their empirical application. In this paper, we extend and apply this new method to estimate households’ preferences for alternative environmental amenities in the Portland Oregon metropolitan area. We show that estimated structural parameters would be biased if environmental amenities are ignored. By including amenities into the structural models of local jurisdictions, households’ preferences for alternative environmental amenities and public goods are estimated. Parameter values underlying households’ residential choices are uncovered. Many of the empirical regularities observed in the data are replicated (JEL R1, R2, Q2).     

Implications of Debt Renegotiation for Optimal Bank Policy and Firm Behavior

This paper analyzes the problems associated with the renegotiation of debt contracts involving a bank (the lender) and a firm (the borrower) when the latter is operated by a risk averse manager. Firms undertake risky projects with loan capital borrowed from the bank. When a firm cannot pay off a loan it is technically bankrupt. Both the borrower and the lender may however experience a Pareto-improvement in their positions by renegotiating the loan. By renegotiating the terms of the debt the financially distressed firm can avoid the stigmatization of bankruptcy and the bank can avoid the costs of seizing the borrower's assets. However, our main finding is that, from the bank's point of view, renegotiating as a policy of recovering loan payments may be inefficient in practice because of false bankruptcy claims and moral hazard problems associated with exposure of the borrowing firm to the risk of default. We present a solution to the false bankruptcy claim problem that involves a mixe d strategy between asset seizure by the bank and debt renegotiation.     

Consumers’ use of information intermediaries and the impact on their information search behavior in the financial market

An information intermediary is a human or a nonhuman party designed to assist consumers in information processing. The current study identifies factors determining the likelihood of using human information intermediaries and the effects of using information intermediaries on the amount and the pattern of overall information search. The proposed model is built based on a value‐intention framework and tested in the context of financial investment decisions. The results indicate that a low level of perceived expertise in financial management, a large amount of total financial assets, and a high opportunity cost of time enhance the perceived value of information intermediaries, thus increasing the likelihood of using information intermediaries. We also find that the use of information intermediaries is positively associated with the overall extent of information search and influences the likelihood of using other information sources.     

How do Labor Unions Influence the Gender Earnings Gap? A Comparative Study of the US and Korea

Abstract

This paper provides a comparative study of the United States and Korea regarding the effects of unions on gender earnings gaps in 2004. Using datasets representative of the population of the US and Korea, this contribution shows that gender differences in the workers' observed characteristics and the unobserved component reduce gender earnings gaps in union jobs in both the US and Korea. Fringe benefits in the union sector attract women workers with higher labor market qualifications into the union sector and thereby reduce the gender earnings gap in this sector. The study finds that this self-selection process in the union sector is stronger in Korea than in the US, but the seniority-based wage system that prevails in the Korean union sector widens the gender earnings gap.     

The rise and fall of WebTrust

While prior research mainly focused on the impact of third-party-certified web assurance seals on consumers' perceptions and purchasing behaviors, little research has been conducted on the managerial decision-making process about the selection, implementation, and the abandonment of such seals. Of particular interest here is the WebTrust seal, jointly developed by the AICPA and the CICA. We take a qualitative case study approach to understand the motivations and rationale of a large North American telecommunications firm's management behind the decisions about the selection, implementation, and abandonment of its WebTrust seal. Our case firm was one of the first to obtain the seal on its online shopping website. Semi-structured interview results suggest that the implementation and the subsequent abandonment of WebTrust may be explained by several theoretical frameworks — the managerial accounting perspective, organizational slack theory, innovation theory, and institutional theory. First, the case firm's leader attitude in innovation, its extra resources available, coupled with the endorsement of the accounting profession led to the implementation of WebTrust. Second, when the benefits of WebTrust versus its costs were questioned and other companies increasingly abandoned the seal, our case firm decided to follow this trend.     

The pricing of foreign currency options under jump‐diffusion processes

In this article, the authors derive explicit formulas for European foreign exchange (FX) call and put option values when the exchange rate dynamics are governed by jump‐diffusion processes. The authors use a simple general equilibrium international asset pricing model with continuous trading and frictionless international capital markets. The domestic and foreign price level are introduced as state variables that contain jumps caused by monetary shocks and catastrophic events such as 9/11 or Hurricane Katrina. The domestic and foreign interest rates are stochastic and endogenously determined in the model and are shown to be critically affected by the jump risk of the foreign exchange. The model shows that the behavior of FX options is affected through the impact of state variables and parameters on the nominal interest rates. The model contrasts with those of M. Garman and S. Kohlhagen (1983) and O. Grabbe (1983), whose models have exogenously determined interest rates. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:669–695, 2007     

The Effects of Youth Job Seeker Allowance in South Korea

The severity of youth unemployment in South Korea has prompted the government to implement various preventive measures such as employment services and vocational training. Local governments implemented a Youth Job Seeker Allowance in 2016 as a new form of support, which was adopted by the central government in 2017. This study examines the impact of the Youth Job Seeker Allowance in South Korea on employment. It finds that the allowance had a positive effect on employment; recipients of the allowance have a higher probability of being employed. However, recipients took longer to obtain employment than non-recipients, corroborating previous studies that unemployment benefits lengthen the duration of unemployment. But, recipients of the allowance have more time to look for quality work. Therefore, although the Youth Job Seeker Allowance has the effect of demotivating recipients from looking for employment, its limited duration of three months obliges them to engage in job search activities. The study has implications for the introduction of Youth Job Seeker Allowance systems to support job search activities.     

Economic cost–benefit analysis of the addictive digital game industry

This study attempts to estimate the economic costs and benefits of the addictive digital game industry. Addiction to digital games induces economic costs such as increase in crime, facilities investments for curbing addiction, increase in counselling costs and other welfare losses. As a case study, we investigate the digital game industry in South Korea which is known to have one of the highest rates of game addiction. According to our calculations, the annual cost of game addiction is estimated to be approximately $3.5B while the annual benefit is approximately $24.3B ($3.7B for addicted user market). The proportion of the total costs to total benefits from the game industry is an alarming 14% (95% for addicted user market). We offer some policy recommendations.