National technological styles explained in terms of stakeholding patterns, enfranchisement and cultural differences: Britain and Japan

The process of technological innovation poses three challenges to a financial system: novelly, visibility, and approapriability. Its capacity to cope with these challenges is a function of which groups/organizations are stakeholders in innovatio and to what extent; and in what way and to what extent they are enfranchised. From this point of view, the British and Japanese financial systems differ very sharply. So do British and Japanese culture, in relevant ways. The steel, fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries show the effects of these differences in practice. The importance of novelty, visibility and appropriability differs among them, as does the value of certain culturally-influenced features of innovative behaviour. Steel (and even more so engineering, into which the Japanese steel companies have diversified) appears well suited to Japanese characteristics, with fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals well suited to British characteristics. This accounts well for the two countries' comparative advantage in these area, in technology and trade.     

A forecast simulation analysis of the next‐generation DVD market based on consumer preference data

Just as standards wars over formats had characterized VCRs upon introduction to the market, the next‐generation DVD standards war between Blu‐Ray and HD‐DVD lasted 6 years before Blu‐Ray won the contest. Beginning with stated preference data drawn from a structured conjoint survey conducted before Blu‐Ray became the de facto standard of the next‐generation DVD format, we estimate consumer preferences on digital video players. A Bayesian mixed‐logit model is used and market share simulations are conducted under various scenarios based on the estimated parameters from Bayesian mixed‐logit model to surmise the future South Korean digital video‐player market. Results indicate that consumers feel that network size and title availability are more important than hardware‐related facets of the product, such as definition and storage capacity. The level of title availability and price of the Blu‐Ray player for Blu‐Ray's dominance over DVD will dramatically vary by the penetration rate of DVD players.     

Determinants of intra-firm trade: A search for a theoretical framework

This article establishes a theoretical framework to explain the underlying conditions for intra-firm trade phenomenon. Despite an increasing importance of intra-firm trade as a new mode of international exchange, its nature and implications have not yet been investigated seriously and appropriately. Traditional explanation of international trade offers little help in understanding this new phenomenon of international exchange. Using the transaction cost paradigm and its international application as well as the eclectic model of international production, this study identifies major determinants of the intra-firm trade. Also presented are some testable hypotheses within the theoretical framework thus developed.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Developing Equity Release Markets: Risk Analysis for Reverse Mortgages and Home Reversions

Equity release products are sorely needed in an aging population with high levels of home ownership. There has been a growing literature analyzing risk components and capital adequacy of reverse mortgages in recent years. However, little research has been done on the risk analysis of other equity release products, such as home reversion contracts. This is partly due to the dominance of reverse mortgage products in equity release markets worldwide. In this article we compare cash flows and risk profiles from the provider's perspective for reverse mortgage and home reversion contracts. An at-home/in long-term care split termination model is employed to calculate termination rates, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to depict the joint dynamics of economic variables including interest rates, house prices, and rental yields. We derive stochastic discount factors from the no arbitrage condition and price the no negative equity guarantee in reverse mortgages and the lease for life agreement in the home reversion plan accordingly. We compare expected payoffs and assess riskiness of these two equity release products via commonly used risk measures: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).     

How Online Product Reviews Affect Retail Sales: A Meta-analysis

A growing body of research has emerged on online product reviews and their ability to elicit performance outcomes desired by retailers; yet, a common understanding of the performance implications of online product reviews has eluded us. Scholars continue to navigate an array of studies assessing different design elements of online product reviews, and various research settings and data sources. We undertake a meta-analysis of 26 empirical studies yielding 443 sales elasticities to examine how these variables relate to retail sales. Building on well-established meta-analytical methods, we address the following questions: How does review valence influence the elasticity of retailer sales? What about review volume? For which product types and usage situations do online product reviews have a greater impact on retailer sales elasticity? Which types of online reviewers and websites exert the greatest influence on retailer sales elasticity? Our study answers these important questions and provides a much needed quantitative synthesis of this burgeoning stream of research.     

LAND DEVELOPMENT UNDER REGULATION: COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST SIDES OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN OREGON, WASHINGTON, AND CALIFORNIA

We compare how socioeconomic factors, physical landscape, profit uncertainty, and local land use policies have affected land development on the east and west sides of the Cascade Range in Oregon, Washington, and California. It is found that the west side has more actively planned and regulated land use than the east side. Consequently, the more intense land use regulations on the west side have reduced more land development than on the east side. Risks associated with alternative land uses as well as profits were important in land development decisions of both sides.     

Book-Tax Differences and Inland Revenue Audit Adjustments in New Zealand

Abstract:  Using confidential data from US manufacturing firms' tax returns and Inland Revenue Service (IRS) audit adjustments, Mills (1998) tests, and finds support for, her hypothesis that IRS audit adjustments increase as the book-tax differences increase. We test Mills' hypothesis using confidential data obtained from the New Zealand Inland Revenue (hereafter Inland Revenue). Confidential data provide the key variable of interest, Inland Revenue's proposed audit adjustment, which is not available from public sources. These data provide the exact audit adjustment amounts, eliminating measurement errors inherent in proxy variables, and enable a temporal alignment of the book-tax differences with the Inland Revenue audit adjustments, thereby enhancing the internal validity of the relation between book-tax differences and Inland Revenue audit adjustments. Because the results of our study using New Zealand data, another time period, a more diverse set of firms, and a different institutional environment are consistent with those of Mills, we argue for the generalizability of Mills' hypothesis that proposed audit adjustments are positively related to the excess of book income over taxable income.     

Maximum Eigenvalue Test for Seasonal Cointegrating Ranks*

The maximum eigenvalue (ME) test for seasonal cointegrating ranks is presented using the approach of Cubadda [Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2001), Vol. 63, pp. 497–511], which is computationally more efficient than that of Johansen and Schaumburg [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 88, pp. 301–339]. The asymptotic distributions of the ME test statistics are obtained for several cases that depend on the nature of deterministic terms. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to evaluate the relative performances of the proposed ME test and the trace test, and we illustrate these tests using a monthly time series.