An empirical analysis of property appraisal and mortgage redlining

The recent literature advances a hypothesis that addresses the possibility of mortgage redlining caused by a dynamic information externality in property appraisals and mortgage lending. In particular, Lang and Nakamura (1993) hypothesize that because property appraisals depend on past transactions, appraisals in neighborhoods where transactions were infrequent tend to be less precise. The greater uncertainty about house valuation in such neighborhoods can lead mortgage lenders to impose stringent requirements on borrowers. Lang and Nakamura's article, like most economic analysis of property appraisals, is theoretical. Using a sample of mortgages purchased by Fannie Mae, we present preliminary research results that cast doubt on appraisal behavioral rules such as weighted averages or backward-looking expectations on which Lang and Nakamura and other theoretical studies are based. Instead, our results refocus attention on the moral hazard issues of appraisal. We find that in more than 80 percent of the cases, the appraisal is between 0 and 5 percent above the transaction purchase price, in only 5 percent of the cases is the appraisal lower, and in 30 percent of the cases, the appraisal and transaction prices are identical. It would take a strong statistical model to generate such occurrences. Our resutls also indicate that appraisal outcomes are used as a risk factor with different weights for loans with different characteristics (loan-to-value ratios and house prices). The results suggest that more empirical investigation of appraisal practices be conducted to verify the validity of conventional wisdom embedded in theoretical studies, and we offer an econometric framework toward this end.     

Racial and ethnic differences in housing demand: An econometric investigation

This article empirically investigates the sources of housing demand differences between racial (black and white) and ethnic (Hispanic and non-Hispanic) groups. We estimate the tenure-adjusted housing demand equations from the 1989 American Housing Survey (AHS) national sample data and measure the effects of different sources for demand disparities in housing demand, but much less so in explaining racial differences in housing demand. Specifically, 98% (96%) of the housing demand differences between Hispanic and non-Hispanic owners (renters) is due to differences in group endowments. For the racial groups, 29% (51%) of the housing demand differences between black and white owners (renters) is attributable to differences in group endowments. The residual differences explain 71% and 49% of the black-white differentials for owners and renters, respectively. The residual components in our model capture the effect of institutional and structural factors intrinsic to the housing market (such as racial discrimination or residential segregation) and/or the influence of important omitted or harder-tomeasure variables correlated with race or ethnicity (such as wealth, employment history, credit history, and cultural differences in housing consumption).     

Strategic stability and uniqueness in signaling games

A class of signaling games is studied in which a unique Universally Divine equilibrium outcome exists. We identify a monotonicity property under which a variation of Universal Divinity is generically equivalent to strategic stability. Further assumptions guarantee the existence of a unique Universally Divine outcome.     

DETERMINANTS OF EARNINGS-PRICE RATIOS: A REEXAMINATION

This paper incorporates recent equity valuation theories into the examination of determinants of earnings-price (E/P) ratios to explain cross-sectional differences in E/P ratios. The results show that ex ante measures of risk and growth as well as the payout ratio are the main determinants of E/P ratios. The persistence measure is not significantly related to E/P ratios. The results are robust to ordinary least square models as well as to a tobit censored regression.     

Demographic factors and the pattern of household expenditures in the United States

Summary and Conclusions This study takes as its starting point the hypothesis that demographic characteristics of households are as relevant determinants of the pattern of consumer expenditures in the United States as are measured prices and incomes. Demographic characteristics of households are brought to bear upon their expenditure patterns not via their impact on consumer tastes but rather via their effect on “true” prices and “permanent” incomes faced by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' 1972/73 Consumer Expenditure Survey data are used to estimate several expenditure functions. The econometric results unequivocally demonstrate the validity of the authors' hypothesis. Various demographic factors such as the age of the household head, his/her educational attainment, the employment status of the household head and spouse, the household's race and region of location are all found to be significant determinants of the pattern of expenditures in the United States. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1979 Annual Meeting of the Atlantic Economic Society, October 10–12, 1979, Washington, D.C. The authors would like to thank Mr. Lee Grimes of the Computer Center at Tennessee Tech for many hours of patient help.     

Inference of Seasonal Cointegration: Gaussian Reduced Rank Estimation and Tests for Various Types of Cointegration*

An extension of Gaussian reduced rank estimation of Ahn and Reinsel (Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 62, pp. 317–350, 1994) to seasonal periods other than four is presented. Simple adjustments for estimation that are necessary because of complex‐valued seasonal unit roots are presented in detail and the asymptotic distribution of the estimators that takes the same form as that in Ahn and Reinsel (1994) is derived. Tests for contemporaneous cointegration and common polynomial cointegrating vectors (PCIVs) for different seasonal unit roots are presented. Finite sample properties are briefly examined through a small Monte Carlo simulation study and a numerical example is presented to illustrate the methods.     

A Chain-Type Price Index for New Business Jet Aircraft

This paper presents a price index constructed to measure the real price and real output of corporate business jet aircraft. It employs a chained price index methodology to properly account for the effect of changes in aircraft quality and product lines on the price index. The index indicates that the average price level of corporate jets has significantly outpaced the general price level measured by the GDP deflator, nearly doubling the real price of the product over a 35-year period from 1968 to 2003, which could have negatively affected the demand for the product. Because the GDP deflator significantly understates the price increase in corporate jets, the industry’s real output is overstated when its nominal sales are deflated with a general price index. The paper suggests that an industry-specific price index allows more accurate analyses of real economic activity of an industry. The methodology used in this paper could be useful for other industries where product price movements vary significantly from the changes in the general price level. JEL Classification L160,L620     

A decision model for regional industrial recruitment and development

Although the practice of industrial recruitment is widespread among regions, its objectives and constraints are neither well established nor carefully evaluated in determining the most desirable industries. As a result, many regions frequently resort to a blind scramble for new industries. This paper suggests a decision model for a regional economy to determine the priority in industrial recruitment. The problem is formulated in terms of a mathematical programming model in which the objectives and constraints are explicitly stated. Regional input-output, table provides additional constraints in the model. The input-output table is also used in testing the economic feasibility of optimal solutions.     

我国区域高等教育和谐发展的目标重构

我国西部区域高等教育目前正处在由精英化向大众化的转化阶段,今后的发展目标应该围绕大众化,在提高教育质量、坚持两条腿走路、人才立教、培育地方品牌、重视应用型等方面努力采取行之有效的战略和对策。     

Are Commercial Mortgage Defaults Affected by Tax Considerations?

We study whether tax considerations are an important determinant of commercial mortgage default. We also study whether large lenders are better informed, or better at interpreting information for lending purposes, and hence have lower foreclosure rates; whether lenders have more information on larger borrowers than smaller borrowers, and hence have lower foreclosure rates on larger loans; and whether commercial mortgage defaults are related to debt service coverage and loan-to-values, both initial and contemporaneous. The paper’s main findings are fourfold. First, holding all else equal, there is evidence that tax considerations influence investors’ decisions about when to “put” assets to lenders. The results are consistent with the argument of Constantinides (J Financ Econ 13:65–89, 1984). Second, the evidence suggests that large lenders are especially knowledgeable about commercial mortgage borrowers and commercial property markets, in that they have lower foreclosure rates than smaller lenders. Third, on the question of whether lenders have more information on larger borrowers than smaller borrowers, we find that larger loans have, on average, lower default rates than smaller loans. Fourth, the findings suggest that lower default rates are associated with higher debt service coverage ratios, both initial and contemporaneous.