The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data

Our results shed light on the sensitivity of the betas of portfolios formed on market capitalization (“size”) and book-to-market value (“value”) to output growth in the United States. We estimate a state-space model to analyze the sensitivity of portfolio betas to output growth. We measure output growth using real-time and revised data. Output growth has a significant effect on portfolio betas when size and value are high. Such portfolio betas exhibit countercyclical dynamics. They are more sensitive, in absolute terms, to output growth when the latter is measured using real-time data. Their sensitivity to output growth has grown over time. Portfolio betas with respect to output growth have become smaller over time, in contrast, when size is large but value is low.     

One Money,One Market: A Revised Benchmark

The introduction of the euro generated substantial interest in the impact of currency unions (CUs) on trade flows. Initial estimates suggested a tripling of trade, which gave rise to a literature in search of “more reasonable” CU effects. Theoretical derivations of the gravity model highlight, however that the CU literature neglects to control simultaneously for general equilibrium effects (multilateral resistance) and unobserved bilateral heterogeneity among trade partners. Once we introduce the appropriate controls, CU trade effects are shown to range around 50%. We also highlight that the practice of reporting average CU effects generates misleading results. The average effect is shown to be a composite of disparate individual CU effects ranging from 40% (euro) to about 100% (Central African franc).     

Ramifications of debt restructuring on the euro area

The Greek government budget situation plays a central role in the debt crisis in the euro area. Strong consolidation measures need to be implemented, with potential adverse effects on the Greek economy and further credit requirements. Debt conversion might therefore become a reasonable alternative. The following paper provides some simulation-based calculations of the expected fiscal costs for the governments in the large European countries, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, arising from different policy options — among them a second Greek rescue package.     

The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China

This paper sheds new light on the external and domestic dimension of China’s exchange rate policy. It presents an open-economy model to analyse the macroeconomic adjustment process in China under both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. The model-based results indicate that persistent current account surpluses in China cannot be rationalized, under general circumstances, by the occurrence of permanent technology or labour supply shocks. As a result, to understand the macroeconomic adjustment process in China it is necessary to mimic the effects of potential inefficiencies, which induce the subdued response of domestic absorption to permanent income shocks, thereby causing the observed positive unconditional correlation of the trade balance and output. The paper argues that these inefficiencies can be potentially seen as a by-product of the fixed exchange rate regime, and can be approximated by a stochastic tax on domestic consumption or a time-varying transaction cost technology related to money holdings. Our results indicate that a fixed exchange rate regime with financial market distortions, as defined above, might induce negative effects on GDP growth in the medium term compared with a more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Integrating art as a trans‐boundary element in a radical innovation framework

Companies have learned that radical innovations (RIs) are a prerequisite to grow organically. However, companies struggle to identify and introduce RIs, as their inherent high uncertainties and novelty challenge established organisations and management routines. To address the first challenge, companies need to take a holistic approach and design a trans‐boundary environment of creativity, trans‐disciplinary and entrepreneurial spirit. This environment attracts and retains visionary people, fosters generation of new opportunities and cultivates adaptability. By adapting evaluation metrics for RI, setting up flexible processes, and promoting trans‐disciplinary exchange, the second challenge can be addressed. Increased research has concentrated on several aspects of RI lately, but so far a combining framework is missing. Our paper bridges this gap by developing an improved theoretical framework, enhancing the existing literature and introducing art as a method to advance trans‐disciplinary interchange. In a case‐study approach, we have applied our framework to the research and development department of Vodafone Research and Development, Germany, as they integrate art methodically in their research and development process. Analysing their RI capabilities, we identify the trans‐disciplinary exchange with artists as a novel initiator and driver of RI, which has not yet been adequately considered.     

Longitudinal satisfaction measurement using latent growth curve models and extensions

Latent growth curve modeling (LGCM) is used to describe changing latent aspects over time manifested in observed indicators. A case study of satisfaction indicators of cinema visitors observed over 12 months is used to detect such transitions from excitement factors to performance factors to basic factors, as mentioned in the Kano-model. The sample is split up into groups depending on slope trajectories and intercepts. More precisely, a growth mixture model (GMM) with random slopes and random intercepts is incorporated offering the possibility of visualizations including individual intercept and slope values. This figure allows deeper insight into the modifications of time.     

Expiration day effects of stock index derivatives in Germany

There is a significant increase in trading volume on quarterly futures expiration days in Germany. Delays in the opening for the majority of index stocks indicate that a large part of this extraordinary volume is indeed traded right at the opening of the market. an increase in trading activity is also observed over the 10-minute settlement period for index options. Volatility remains unchanged around the expiration of a futures contract. an increase is found for the 10-minute settlement period of DAX options. Return reversals as the measure for the economic costs of contract expirations are significantly higher when a futures contract expires at the open. When an option expires at the close no clear pattern for reversals can be found.     

Notes and Communications

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Notes and Communications