Real‐Time Forecasting and Political Stock Market Anomalies: Evidence for the United States

Using monthly data from 1953 to 2003, we apply a real‐time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns in real‐time. Our empirical findings show that political variables, chosen on the basis of widely used model‐selection criteria, are often included in real‐time forecasting models. However, political variables do not contribute systematically to improving the performance of simple trading rules. For this reason, political stock market anomalies are not necessarily an indication of market inefficiency.     

Foreign exchange,fractional cointegration and the implied–realized volatility relation

Almost all relevant literature has characterized implied volatility as a biased predictor of realized volatility. In this paper we provide new time series techniques to investigate the validity of this finding in several foreign exchange options markets, including the Euro market. First, we develop a new fractional cointegration test that is shown to be robust to both stationary and non-stationary regions. Second, we employ both intra-day and daily data to measure realized volatility in order to assess the relevance of data frequency in resolving the bias. Third, we use data on implied volatility traded on the market. In contrast to previous studies, we show that the frequency of data used for measuring realized volatility within a fractionally cointegrating framework is important for the results of unbiasedness tests. Significantly, for many popular exchange rates, the use of intra-day rather than daily data affects the emergence of a different bias, as the possibility of a fractionally integrated risk premium admits itself!     

Nanotechnologie – Rechtliche Aspekte zur Versicherbarkeit von Produkten am Anfang neuer wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse

The article deals with the question which options exist in order to improve insurability of emerging risks, which are difficult to assess. The topic is illustrated by taking the example of nanotechnology. The author demonstrates how mathematical insurability may be increased by using contractual instruments such as the claims made principle, limits with regard to the duration and extent of insurance cover or the insured’s risk-related duties. Furthermore some ways to improve economic insurability are discussed. The analysis of pros and cons shows that the various options vary considerably with regard to their impact on insurability.     

Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics

This article demonstrates the importance of separating the bundled good of housing into land and improvements, arguing that changes in a property's overall value will depend critically on how much of its total value is contained in the land, a proportion we call land leverage. The importance of this deconstruction is demonstrated by highlighting how land leverage helps to explain variation in house price appreciation in Wichita, Kansas. Noting that land leverage should be relevant for many real estate issues and policies, we highlight four specific areas where consideration of land leverage could significantly improve our understanding of real estate markets.

Land is the only thing in the world that amounts to anything … for 'tis the only thing in this world that lasts, and don't you be forgetting it!'Tis the only thing worth working for, worth fighting for—worth dying for.
Gerald O'Hara in Gone with the Wind ¹

     

Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK

In this article, we discuss forms of migration that are non‐permanent. We focus on temporary migrations where the decision to return is taken by the immigrant. These migrations are likely to be frequent, and we provide some evidence for the UK. We then develop a simple model that rationalizes the decision of a migrant to return to his/her home country, despite a persistently higher wage in the host country. We consider three motives for a temporary migration: (i) differences in relative prices between host and home country, (ii) complementarities between consumption and the location where consumption takes place, and (iii) the possibility of accumulating human capital abroad, which enhances the immigrant's earnings potential back home. For the last return motive, we discuss extensions that allow for immigrant heterogeneity, and develop implications for selective in‐ and out‐migration.     

Setting the right prices for the wrong reasons

Nominal price adjustment is studied in an environment with firm-specific and aggregate shocks to economic fundamentals and incomplete, dispersed information. Firms update their expectations about fundamentals based on their own cash flows (revenues and wages). We show that in a model with realistic levels of product-level price dispersion, the firms’ inference about aggregate shocks is very gradual, yet in the aggregate prices adjust rapidly in response to aggregate nominal shocks. When an aggregate shock occurs, firms mistakenly attribute it to firm-specific shocks, but adjust prices nevertheless, since the exact nature of the shock matters little for their optimal pricing decision.     

On the determinants of complementarity: Elasticities of substitution, income shares, and relative prices

This paper extends an example due to Samuelson (1974) to develop the relationship between possible compensated complementarity between two goods and the two elasticities of substitution in an extended three good CES utility function. It also uses the same utility function to develop the implications of a generalized income share parameter and two different relative prices for possible complementarity between goods. Finally, it explores possible complementarity in a more general utility function with non-constant elasticities of substitution.     

Price premiums and low cost carrier competition

This study presents a time series examination of price premiums in the US airline industry. Price premiums are defined as price markups due to domination and concentration at the airport and route market levels. The differential effect of these price premium drivers is empirically investigated, and it is shown that the largest components of price premiums are those from airport market share and airport concentration. The effect of low cost carrier competition on the level and composition of price premiums is of particular interest in this study. The results indicate that low cost carriers do not charge price premiums, and that high cost carriers’ price premiums tend to be lower when there is competition by low cost carriers. While the absolute values of price premiums have been fairly constant over the 1992–2002 time frame, the proportion of US passengers subject to price premiums has decreased due to the increasing share of low cost carrier traffic.