Forecasting h(m)otel guest nights in New Zealand

The purpose of this paper is to highlight some time series models which hotel and motel industry practitioners could use to forecast guest nights. Given their considerable practicality, the lodging industry can easily benefit from using these models as forecasts can be obtained at low cost for effective management and planning. Monthly observations are used for estimating the model from 1997(1) to 2006(12). The Holt–Winters and Box–Jenkins ARMA models are able to forecast guest night demand accurately as 99% of the variations in the guest night forecast are associated with variations in actual guest nights in 2007.     

Accounting for human rights: Doxic health and safety practices – The accounting lesson from ICL

This paper is concerned with a specific human right – the right to work in a safe environment. It sets out a case for developing a new form of account of health and safety in any organisational setting. It draws upon the theoretical insights of Pierre Bourdieu taking inspiration from his assertion that in order to understand the “logic” of the worlds we live in we need to immerse ourselves into the particularity of an empirical reality. In this case the paper, analyses a preventable industrial disaster which occurred in Glasgow, Scotland which killed nine people¹ and injured 33 others. The paper unearths the underlying structures of symbolic violence of the UK State, the Health and Safety Executive and capital with respect to health and safety at work in the case. While dealing with one specific country (Scotland) and arguably an anomalous event we contend that Bourdieu's objective of constructing a special case of what is possible can equally be used to question health and safety regimes and other forms of symbolic violence across the globe.

Bourdieu (1998, p. 2) “My entire scientific enterprise is indeed based upon the belief that the deepest logic of the social world can be grasped only if one plunges into the particularity of an empirical reality, historically located and dated, but with the objective of constructing it as a “special case of what is possible,” as Bachelard puts it, that is, as an exemplary case in a finite world of possible configurations.

     

Home Alone: The Effects of Lone‐Insider Boards on CEO Pay,Financial Misconduct,and Firm Performance

Research summary: Corporate scandals of the previous decade have heightened attention on board independence. Indeed, boards at many large firms are now so independent that the CEO is “home alone” as the lone inside member. We build upon “pro‐insider” research within agency theory to explain how the growing trend toward lone‐insider boards affects key outcomes and how external governance forces constrain their impact. We find evidence among S&P 1500 firms that having a lone‐insider board is associated with (a) excess CEO pay and a larger CEO‐top management team pay gap, (b) increased likelihood of financial misconduct, and (c) decreased firm performance, but that stock analysts and institutional investors reduce these negative effects. The findings raise important questions about the efficacy of leaving the CEO “home alone.” Managerial summary: Following concerns that insider‐dominated boards failed to protect shareholders, there has been a push for greater board independence. This push has been so successful that the CEO is now the only insider on the boards of more than half of S&P 1500 firms. We examine whether lone‐insider boards do in fact offer strong governance or whether they enable CEOs to benefit personally. We find that lone‐insider boards pay CEOs excessively, pay CEOs a disproportionately large amount relative to other top managers, have more instances of financial misconduct, and have lower performance than boards with more than one insider. Thus, it appears that lone‐insider boards do not function as intended and firms should reconsider whether the push towards lone‐insider boards is actually in shareholders' best interests. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are Information Attributes Priced?

A seminal model in finance links cost of equity capital to information precision, composition and dissemination. Using realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital and the probability of an informed trade (PIN) to proxy for composition, prior research documents results consistent with the model's prediction regarding composition. Nonetheless, prior research that examines the construct validity cautions against the use of future realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital and recommend r_{DIV_PREM} or r_{PEG_PREM} instead. The authors speculate but do not demonstrate how the results in existing research might be incorrect due to their use of realized returns. This paper provides such evidence. We find that the authors inference regarding PIN is dependent on their choice of realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital. We also estimate a more complete specification of the model that includes precision and dissemination, and we decompose PIN into its component parts to isolate that portion of PIN that varies with dissemination. These refinements allow for new insights regarding the veracity of the model's predictions. We conclude that cost of equity capital is increasing in composition, and decreasing in dissemination, and find some, albeit not conclusive support, for the prediction that cost of equity capital is decreasing in precision.     

Research Note: Adolescents' perceptions of food chemical risks

A questionnaire measuring attitude towards four categories of food chemicals (colourings, flavourings, pesticides and fertilizers), level of concern for the environment, dietary habits and reasons for food choice was administered to 932 high school students aged 12-15 years during regular classroom periods. Students also indicated whether they could recall classroom teaching on 15 food and health related issues. Scores were derived representing self-reported frequency of eating (a) foods that were high in fat, or (b) fresh fruits and vegetables. Along with a measure of environmental concern, these were entered as covariates in the analysis of attitudes towards the different classes of additives. Age and gender had little effect on these attitudes. However, more positive attitudes towards both colourings and flavourings were associated with more frequent consumption of 'fat' foods and less frequent consumption of 'fresh' foods. Those with higher 'fat' diets also evaluated the use of pesticides more positively, whereas those expressing greater environmental concern were more opposed to flavourings, fertilizers and (marginally) pesticides. With regard to reasons for food choice, those with higher 'fat' and lower 'fresh' diets appeared to place more weight on pleasure than on nutritional information, whereas those higher on environmental concern paid more attention to labelling and food value. Older students were more able to choose their own diet, but attended less to the health value of the foods they chose, and expressed less trust in food labelling and government control. These findings suggest that judgements of risk are guided by evaluative associations, derived partly from more general attitudes and previous behaviour.     

Designing an electronic auction market for complex ‘smart parts’ logistics: Options based on LeBaron's computational stock market

Modern technologies, such as RFID, offer never-before seen learning abilities to parts moving in supply chains. Logistics systems may be understood as complex adaptive logistics systems (CALS). They also may be conceived as electronic auction markets as ‘smart parts’ bid for the best routing and pricing from transportation firms. To ensure the world-wide functionality and efficiency of CALS transportation markets, we suggest the utility of an agent-based computational market design based on Blake LeBaron's stock-market model. Given that parts may be more or less smart, markets more or less complex, and self-organizing CALS systems probabilistically subject to the bullwhip effect, we suggest nine different computational CALS market-design options, offering more adaptivity to unexpected environmental contingencies.