Money, Interest Rate Spreads, and Economic Activity. —Numerous empirical studies for industrial countries have shown that the term structure of interest rates is a good indicator for future output growth. This paper analyzes whether the interest rate spread contains any additional predictive power if the model includes the money stock. A multivariate error-correction framework is applied to three European economies — France, Germany, and Italy. Granger causality tests are performed for various monetary aggregates and the term structure. The evidence concerning the marginal information content is mixed: For France and Italy, the term structure does not improve the results of the basic model whereas it is significant for Germany. 相似文献
This article presents the appropriate rate by which to discount a constant, certain, infinite stream of future payments: that is, the yield on a noncallable perpetuity or consol. The American consol series is a daily risk-free “pure” long term interest rate which is undistorted by tax effects, call premiums, and varying duration and reinvestment assumptions. If Hamburger had used the American consol series instead of the U.S. Government Long Term Bond Rate in his money demand function, he would have found more of the “missing money.” His average error (actual minus predicted money demand) as a percentage of actual money demand would have been reduced from 1.43% to 0.93% a 35% error reduction. 相似文献
The purpose of this research was to examine whether undergraduate business students who participated in a short term study abroad course and intercultural competence building coursework demonstrated a significant increase in intercultural competence over those who only enrolled in the study abroad course. The 20 participants attended a small liberal arts College in Midwestern United States. The Intercultural Development Inventory (IDI) was administered to the participating students before and after their study away experience. The IDI (v.3) is based on the theoretical framework of the Developmental Model of Intercultural Sensitivity (DMIS) introduced by Milton Bennett. The DMIS is based on the assumption that intercultural competence can be strengthen through the development of intercultural knowledge and experience with people from other cultures. The IDI has been used in numerous scholarly studies and has demonstrated valid and reliable results. It is a self-administered 50-item series of statements in which participants are asked to rate the level of their agreement with statements that address their relationship to and evaluation of cultural difference. In the model, people progress in a linear developmental fashion through six stages: defense, denial, polarization, minimization, acceptance, and adaptation. This study was designed to determine if students who studied away and completed intercultural coursework (prior intercultural knowledge and an intercultural experience) would increase their level of intercultural competency more than those students who just studied away (intercultural experience only) as measured by the change in their IDI scores. The results of this small sample show that intercultural coursework in conjunction with a short term study away experience can have a positive impact on individual intercultural development. 相似文献
This paper explores three inter-related issues: globalisation; the role of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs); and electronic commerce (e-commerce). A central question is whether e-commerce offers advantages to SMEs that may facilitate their access to global markets and help them overcome the disadvantages they face vis-à-vis large transnational corporations (TNCs)? The paper starts by briefly considering the extent of globalisation and its relationship to free trade. We then go on to consider recent developments in e-commerce, focusing on the key issue of e-payment systems. Differences in the requirements of large and smaller firms are identified, and we identify a number of key issues concerning access of smaller firms to e-payment systems and the (virtual) market place, and outline their implications for regulatory policy. Our analysis highlights the importance of network externalities, and institutional factors affecting trust and the relationships amongst different economic actors. This leads to a consideration of networking and public policies more broadly. One of the central conclusions of our analysis is that there are important synergies between e-commerce (virtual) networks and (real) production networks. This suggests that policy makers and smaller firms should think in terms of extending existing, and catalysing new, real production networks to incorporate e-payment systems for networks of firms in order to facilitate their access to virtual markets.
We demonstrate that the criteria put forward by Atkinson and Bourguignon (1987) can be satisfactorily applied to the analysis of poverty even when the demographic composition of society and the definition of poverty change over time. We show that they provide both sufficient and necessary conditions for any robust conclusions concerning the changes in welfare and poverty. We apply these criteria to a set of data tracking annual income distribution movements in France from 1977 to 1994. The Atkinson and Bourguignon criteria posit that recent changes in poverty are a function of macroeconomic fluctuations in activity. 相似文献