构建不确定时期的灵活供应链

“长鞭效应”系指公司供应商的信息流出现的扭曲现象。企业必须灵活应对，自我保护。     

Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for individual as well as ‘average’ models. The asymptotic as well as the exact finite-sample distribution of the test statistic, dealing with the possibility of parameter uncertainty, are established. The model averaging idea and the VaR diagnostic tests are illustrated by an application to portfolios of daily returns on six currencies, four equity indices, four ten year government bonds and four commodities over the period 1991–2007. The empirical evidence supports the use of ‘thick’ model averaging strategies over single models or Bayesian type model averaging procedures.     

Evaluating the effects of farm programmes: results from propensity score matching

The paper applies a semi-parametric propensity score matchingapproach to evaluate the effects of agri-environment (AE) programmeson input use and farm output of individual farms in Germany.The analysis reveals a positive and significant treatment effectof AE programmes on the area under cultivation, in particulargrassland, resulting in a decrease of cattle livestock densities.Furthermore, participation significantly reduced the purchaseof farm chemicals (fertiliser, pesticide). We also find differencesin the treatment effect among individual farms (heterogeneoustreatment effects). Farms that can generate the largest benefitfrom the programme are most likely to participate.     

Developing competence in retailing: strategic advantages

Since the late 1980s, the UK Government has invested significant levels of funding in the development of national competence-based qualifications in an attempt to improve skill levels and therefore international competitiveness. The paper provides an overview of the progress which has been made by the UK retailing industry and presents the implementation experiences of five major retail companies. The paper concludes with an analysis of the strategic implications.     

Do American and European Industrial Organization Economists Differ?

This paper compares results from two surveys among American and European industrial organisation (IO) economists on various IO and broader economic issues. Although differences between the two groups are generally rather small, some systematic differences seem to exist. These differences are more pronounced when judgments about the efficacy of government policies and the workings of the market are concerned than when judgments about methodology and the present and future state of the IO field are concerned. American IO economists tend to exhibit more confidence in the market's capability to allocate resources than their European counterparts.     

Cluster Analysis of Smart Metering Data

The introduction of smart meter technology is a great challenge for the German energy industry. It requires not only large investments in the communication and metering infrastructure, but also a redesign of traditional business processes. The newly incurring costs cannot be fully passed on to the end customers. One option to counterbalance these expenses is to exploit the newly generated smart metering data for the creation of new services and improved processes. For instance, performing a cluster analysis of smart metering data focused on the customers’ time-based consumption behavior allows for a detailed customer segmentation. In the article we present a cluster analysis performed on real-world consumption data from a smart meter project conducted by a German regional utilities company. We show how to integrate a cluster analysis approach into a business intelligence environment and evaluate this artifact as defined by design science. We discuss the results of the cluster analysis and highlight options to apply them to segment-specific tariff design.